Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC 273 takes place on Saturday at the VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Florida. The card features two title fights, one in the featherweight division and one in the bantamweight division.
We are sharing our UFC 273 best bets here, but head over to our main UFC 273 predictions page for picks for every fight on the main and preliminary card. Please gamble responsibly when following our MMA picks and predictions.
UFC 273 main card best bets
Alexander Volkanovski win by decision (-125) vs Chan Sung Jung
Alexander Volkanovski comes into this fight with an MMA record of 23-1. He is 10-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Brian Ortega by unanimous decision back in September of 2021. Volkanovski is averaging 6.42 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 56%. He is absorbing 3.34 strikes and has a striking defense of 60%. His grappling is also solid, averaging 1.77 takedowns per every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 34% and his takedown defense is 70%.
Volkanovski is a massive favorite here, taking the money line out of play. He has won 7 of his 10 UFC fights by decision and will likely try to wear down The Korean Zombie with stand-up fighting and his wrestling. For that reason, backing Volkanovski to retain the Featherweight title by decision will be the play.
Aljamain Sterling vs Petr Yan: Fight to go the Distance – Yes (-120)
Petr Yan comes into this fight with an MMA record of 16-2. He is averaging 5.98 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 52%. He is absorbing 4.14 strikes and has a striking defense of 62%. Yan also has solid grappling ability, averaging 1.75 takedowns per every 15 minutes.
Aljamain Sterling comes into this fight with an MMA record of 20-3. Sterling is averaging 4.84 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 49%. He is absorbing 2.20 strikes and has a striking defense of 63%. Sterling is also known for his grappling ability, averaging 1.77 takedowns per every 15 minutes.
Sterling is the huge favorite in this rematch, so a money line play on him should not be considered here. Sterling has lost by KO/TKO just once in his career and that was back in 2017. He also has never lost by submission. Same goes for Yan as he has never lost by a finish, just 1 by DQ. This should be a back-and-forth fight, but both guys have strong enough chins to survive 5 rounds. For that reason, backing this fight to go the distance will be the play.
UFC 273 preliminary card best bets
Aleksei Oleinik ML (-110) vs Jarad Vanderaa
Aleksei Oleinik comes into this fight with an MMA record of 59-16-1. He is 8-7 in the UFC, most recently losing to Serghei Spivac by unanimous decision back in June of 2021. Oleinik is averaging 3.55 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 50%. He is absorbing 3.99 strikes and has a striking defense of 44%. His grappling will be crucial here as Oleinik is averaging 2.16 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 2.2 submission attempts during the same time period.
This fight is dead even and being a heavyweight fight, either one of these guys could end it quickly. Jarad Vanderaa’s poor takedown defense is a concern here, especially because Oleinik has 46 wins by submission in his career. Because of superior grappling, backing Oleinik will be the play.
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