NFL Week 3 Anytime TD Scorers: Best Picks for Sunday's Games

Week 3 is here, as the NFL season is rolling right along. This isn’t the most appealing slate from a headline perspective, but there are still plenty of intriguing matchups on Sunday’s card, including Bengals vs Steelers, Chargers vs Bills and Ravens vs Cowboys.

To get you set for the action, I’ve compiled my favorite touchdown bets on Sunday’s Week 3 card and will break each of them down for you now. Let’s get right into it, and don’t forget our NFL picks for tips and predictions on both sides and totals of every NFL game this season.

NFL Week 3 TD bet: David Montgomery (HOU) +100

Odds courtesy of BetMGM at the time of publishing. Playable to -125.

Indianapolis has been dreadful against the run through two games. The Colts gave up 144 yards and three touchdowns on 24 carries to Derrick Henry in Week 1 and followed that up by allowing 117 yards on 24 carries to Ken Walker last week. As a whole, Indy has given up an average of 177 yards per game, which is second-worst in the league, while they sit dead last in EPA per rush allowed and are tied for second-worst in rushing touchdowns allowed. 

David Montgomery might not be in the same conversation as Henry and Walker when it comes to NFL accolades, but I would argue he’s a bit underrated. Now in a role where he should get a majority of the work, Montgomery has already found the end zone twice, both in Week 1 when the Texans were in a competitive game – unlike last week, when they trailed for much of the contest against the Bengals. Given that Houston is a road favorite against a divisional opponent here, I expect them to play at least a decent portion of this game with the lead, which would be a huge benefit to Monty and the Houston run game. For what it’s worth, he has by far the most red-zone rushing usage on the team at 85.7%, which ranks top-five in the NFL and makes any near-even price against this Colts run defense very appealing. 

Get our full Texans vs Colts prediction

NFL Week 3 TD bet: Adonai Mitchell (NYJ) +350

Odds courtesy of Fanatics Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to +300. 

We’re seeing that if you give the Jets pass-catchers at least a semi-capable quarterback, they will produce. Garrett Wilson and Adonai Mitchell have 14 targets apiece, tied for most in the AFC East, and both have gained over 120 yards through two games. Both have a great chance to score on Sunday, but I’m going with Mitchell given the matchup and price. 

After two games, the Lions are 22nd in EPA per pass allowed per SumerSports, while they’re 25th in success rate allowed and have surrendered over 650 combined passing yards to Tyler Shough and Josh Allen, both of whom had three touchdown passes against this secondary. Detroit has defended heavily through zone coverage, which should be music to Mitchell’s ears. He’s the zone-beater on this team, sitting top-10 in the NFL in yards against zone coverage (PFF) this season after a vast majority of his production last year was against zone.

Playing on the road as nearly a touchdown underdog, oddsmakers expect the Jets to be trailing in this one, putting an emphasis on Geno Smith and the passing attack. Smith has spread the ball around a good bit through two games, and while Wilson is his alpha, Mitchell has been very involved and is primed for a deep touchdown on a fast track against this soft Detroit defense.

Here’s our Jets vs Lions prediction

NFL Week 3 TD bet: Rashad Bateman (BAL) +175 

Odds courtesy of BetMGM at the time of publishing. Playable to +135. 

Ravens-Cowboys has the highest total on the board and is being played internationally in Brazil, so I naturally want a little skin in this one. The counting stats might not tell the whole story, but Dallas’ defense has been pretty bad thus far, specifically in the secondary. After allowing Jaxson Dart to complete 23 of 29 passes with three touchdowns, they lucked out a bit last week when Jayden Daniels went down with an elbow injury. Still, Marcus Mariotta came in and went 11-of-16 for 111 yards and a touchdown pass after Daniels already threw a touchdown before exiting the game. As such, the Cowboys rank 30th in EPA per pass allowed, while sitting dead last in overall success rate allowed.  

It sounds like Zay Flowers is going to return after missing last week for the Ravens, but considering he’s nursing a hamstring injury and logged just one limited practice session, I’m not confident in him being completely healthy or playing a full allotment of snaps. Instead, I’m going to look to Rashad Bateman to have another big week. In Flowers’ absence, Bateman put up 88 yards and a touchdown on seven catches. Yes, he’s been inconsistent throughout his career, but with Flowers questionable, Bateman has a real opportunity to take advantage of a soft Dallas secondary in what figures to be a high-scoring game. Plus, he’s had most success against zone coverage, of which the Cowboys have played a heavy dose thus far. 

Now check out our best NFL Week 3 player prop bets to make ahead of Sunday's slate