NFL Week 10 Best Bets: Top Picks for Sunday's Games
The second half of the 2026 NFL season officially gets underway with Week 10, and we've got a hot slate of Sunday matchups to get hyped up for. Thursday Night Football saw the Commanders edge the Giants to keep the NFC East race looking as wild as ever, and it keeps the door open for the Cowboys to capitalize, but in their way are the Super Bowl favorite 49ers. Other hot matchups on the docket include Patriots vs Lions in Munich, as New England looks to bounce back from a humiliating defeat to Green Bay last week, while the Vikings and Packers lock horns at Lambeau. Sunday Night Football features AFC North action between the Steelers and Bengals.
We asked four of our top NFL handicappers for their NFL best bets for what should be another wild Sunday of NFL action. Let's break down our experts' predictions, while you can find out our NFL picks on the side and total for every game this week and throughout the entire season.
NFL Week 10 Best Bet: New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions Under 50.5 (-108)
Best odds available at BetMGM at time of publishing.
Both teams are capable of putting up points, but I'm not sure Sunday's game will be long enough, so to speak, to exceed a sizable 51.5 quota. After getting gashed by Green Bay last week, New England will want to do everything in its power to keep Detroit's offense off the field for as long as possible. That means the Pats' own offense should try to control the clock by running the football. Of course, that probably won't result in many points of their own. After all, both Rhamondre Stevenson (knee) and TreVeyon Henderson (illness) are expected to miss Sunday's contest. As such, my Patriots vs Lions prediction is Under 51.5.
For Detroit, low-scoring affairs have been the norm of late. Its three most recent results are as follows: 20-17 win over Green Bay, 19-15 win over Minnesota and 19-9 win over Miami. Aidan Hutchinson and the defense are cooking, but the offense has been underwhelming. Adding insult to injury (or vice versa), center Cade Mays is dealing with an ankle issue that sidelined him from last Sunday's game. Both defenses are fantastic against the run, and more often than not, that is a recipe that works for keeping opposing offenses in check. The under is 3-0 Detroit's last three games and 3-0 in the last three meetings between these two teams.
Pick and analysis from expert handicapper Ricky Dimon.
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NFL Week 10 Best Bet: Carolina Panthers +2.5 over New Orleans Saints (-110)
Best odds available at Fanatics Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Year after year, the NFC South is seemingly the weirdest division in the NFL, and it has been no different this year. The entire division has three wins each, with the Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints sitting tied at the top at 3-5 ahead of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons at 3-6. When the Panthers and Saints meet in New Orleans this Sunday, the Panthers hope to improve to 2-1 in the division, while the Saints hope to improve to 1-1.
The Saints have had a ton of home games recently, five of their last six contests to be exact, which is a huge benefit for the hosts. However, their last four games have been pretty physical, and their most recent game went late into overtime against the Browns. The Saints won, but they gave up an overtime touchdown and were fortunate Cleveland didn’t convert the two-point attempt for the win. Prior to that game, the Saints were 0-4 SU and ATS at home.
Being a home favorite has been a death sentence in NFC South divisional games for a few years. Since the start of 2024, home favorites in a battle of NFC South teams are just 4-12 ATS, including just 1-9 ATS in their last 10. That lone recent cover was the Bucs in that monsoon game against the indoor-playing Falcons. Oftentimes, the road underdog ends up winning outright.
The Panthers have lost three straight and failed to cover in each of those contests. Are we at the bottom of the market for the defending division champs? Don’t look now, but LB Jaelan Phillips, CB Will Lee III, CB Mike Jackson, DT Lee Hunter, WR Xavier Legette, RB Jonathan Brooks, OL Torricelli Simpkins, OL Damien Lewis and OL Brady Christensen all practiced in full on Wednesday, which means the Panthers could be much, much healthier going into this game than they have been in weeks.
Despite winning the division last year, the Panthers dropped both games against the Saints and are just 1-5 SU against New Orleans in their last six meetings. That adds a bit of a motivational edge, on top of the three-game losing streak they’re currently on. Expecting a healthier Panthers roster this week, I’m all over Carolina. I’m fully expecting them to win this game, but if you’re giving me two-plus points, I’m going to gladly take them.
Pick and analysis from expert handicapper Sam Avellone.
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NFL Week 10 Best Bet: Seattle Seahawks vs Las Vegas Raiders Over 40.5 (-110)
Odds widely available at time of publishing.
A rookie quarterback making his first start against the league's best defense would normally have me running toward the under. However, this isn't a typical rookie situation. Fernando Mendoza arrives with championship pedigree, plenty of confidence, and several talented weapons around him, along with home-field advantage. While the Seahawks are as tough as they come defensively, I don't think the Raiders need to truly light up the scoreboard to help this total cash - they just need to be a little better than expected.
The magic number here is 41. That's not a lot in today's NFL, especially when we only need to see both teams approach the low or mid-twenties. Seattle's defense ranks among the league's best, but it hasn't been perfect. The Seahawks have allowed opponents to go over the 32-point mark before, and the Raiders only need to find the end zone a couple of times, or once and several field goals, to put the total in a great position. A score in the neighborhood of 23-20, 26-20, or even 24-18 suddenly makes the over look much more attainable.
The Seahawks will likely win this game, but victory and low scoring are not necessarily synonymous. Las Vegas has enough talent to contribute, and Seattle should be able to do its part against a defense that has had its share of issues this season. The way I see it, either team, or both, can reach the low to upper-twenties. That may not sound like much, but it's more than enough to push this game over 40.5 points.
Pick and analysis from expert handicapper Aaron Taylor.
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NFL Week 10 Best Bet: Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 over Cincinnati Bengals (-110)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Week 3 presented a highly entertaining contest between these two AFC North rivals. Ending 30-27 in favor of the hometown Steelers, both offenses saw plenty of success, combining for 763 total yards. Pittsburgh’s rushing attack experienced its best outing of the season to that point, gaining 138 yards, anchored mostly by an energetic Jaylen Warren (137 yards and a touchdown).
Leading up to Week 3, analysts saw obvious improvement in the Cincinnati defense, a roster that experienced a near total overhaul during the offseason. Since Week 3 the Bengals’ defense has gradually regressed, allowing 363.8 yards and 24 points per game. Two weeks ago they allowed the Titans, categorically one of the worst offenses in the league, to put up 440 yards and 36 points.
If the Cincinnati defense doesn’t improve, it will be a major issue as teams begin their playoff push. On the bright side, Joe Burrow and the Bengals’ offense has never looked better.
It's been said one million times but it's still worth repeating: the Bengals' passing attack owns the most talented group in the National Football League. Burrow doesn’t need stats to prove to us that he’s among the league’s greatest QBs – we saw that clearly in his first full season, where he carried the Bengals to a Super Bowl appearance. At the same time, it’s nice to see Burrow healthy and thriving. He’s first in the NFL in passing touchdowns (23) and second only to Jordan Love in total passing yards (2386). Against Pittsburgh in Week 3, he had one of his best outings of the season – 28-37, 282 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions.
We have little doubt that Burrow will find some success in Week 10, too, although there is one important caveat. The Steelers are coming off their bye and their defense is completely healthy. Historically the Steelers have been very good in this spot, too, particularly at Cincinnati. Only in Burrow’s Super Bowl season did he have his way with their Pennsylvania rival (a 41-10 victory) at “the Jungle.” Since then, Pittsburgh has won three of their last four battles at Cincinnati. In that one loss, it was only a two-point finish (33-31 Bengals last year, and that was with Flacco at QB).
It’s also worth noting that Aaron Rodgers had his way with the Cincinnati defense in the first battle, ultimately out dueling Burrow by leading a 77-yard game clinching field goal drive with under two minutes remaining in the game. As good as Burrow and the Bengals’ offense has looked, we have to expect another close war.
Pick and analysis from pro NFL bettor Chris Farley.
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NFL Week 10 Picks
Check out our expert NFL picks for EVERY Week 10 matchup below:
- Patriots vs Lions predictions
- Chiefs vs Falcons predictions
- Vikings vs Packers predictions
- Jaguars vs Titans predictions
- Dolphins vs Colts predictions
- Bills vs Jets predictions
- Texans vs Browns predictions
- Panthers vs Saints predictions
- Seahawks vs Raiders predictions
- Rams vs Cardinals predictions
- 49ers vs Cowboys predictions
- Steelers vs Bengals SNF predictions
- Chargers vs Ravens MNF predictions
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