NFL Picks

NFL picks for every game of the 2025-26 season. Our NFL expert picks are informed by key betting trends, statistical analysis and years of NFL betting experience.

Our NFL picks this week include every game in week 3, highlighted by Dolphins vs Bills on Thursday night, Chiefs vs Giants on SNF and arguably the best match-up of the week on Monday night, in the form of Lions vs Ravens.

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8:15 PM ET
Today
Amazon Prime Video
Miami Dolphins
Buffalo Bills
Dolphins
Bills
Point Spread Pick
MIA Dolphins +13.0(-110)

There’s a ton of negative press coming out of Miami. Some of that is well-founded and justified, some of it isn’t. The reality is, the Dolphins lost again in Week 2, allowing the Patriots to put 33 points on the board along the way, yet another indictment for Mike McDaniel and his current influence over the Fins’ locker room. The visitors also made fewer mistakes in the 4th quarter, which ended up deciding the contest. 

Offensively, there was much to appreciate about Miami. Tua Tagovailoa completed 26 out of 32 passes (81%) for 315 yards at a 9.8 yards per pass clip. Tyreek Hill finally caught a ball over 30 yards and eclipsed 100 receiving yards, too. Tua had 1 bad interception, but overall the Dolphins offense looked similar to what it once was, minus a productive run game. One area of concern was their offensive line, which struggled blocking on runs and allowed 5 sacks and 5 quarterback hits.

Miami’s defense was also largely horrific for the entire contest. An offense not known for its explosiveness, New England gained 18 first downs and 333 total yards, going 7-12 on 3rd-down conversions and 3-4 in the red zone. The Dolphins’ defensive showings the first two weeks are extremely concerning, to say the least, especially before traveling up to face a juggernaut at Orchard Park.

There is less to say about Buffalo because their Week 2 outcome was predictable. The Bills’ offensive line dominated the Jets all game, enabling 224 rushing yards for an offense that barely needs a run game with Josh Allen under center. Justin Fields eventually got injured, and Tyrod Taylor couldn’t do much better against a Buffalo defense that came ready to dominate, too. We didn’t learn much about the Bills last Sunday, besides the fact that they are still on a different planet than the Jets.

In the last 2 seasons, Buffalo has dominated Miami. 2 games were close, 2 games were not. Oddsmakers think this one will not be close at all, thus a giant spread, but we’re going to stick our necks out for Miami. There is nothing in pro football that makes a team more desperate than the potential of going 0-3. We think they put up some offense and hang around, in what feels like ultimately an inevitable loss.

Dolphins vs Bills prediction: Dolphins +13 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 12.

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Chris R. Farley
Game Totals Pick
Over 49.5(-110)

If Miami can stay somewhat consistent offensively, this is a team that could become a darling for “overs” all season, and that’s mostly because of their defense. It’s hard to put into words how bad the Dolphins’ defense was in Week 2. When the Patriots needed a 4th-down conversion, they got it. When they were in the red zone, they scored, and it was the best New England’s run game looked like since December 22 of last season. The Dolphins were able to generate pressure on a few plays, sacking Drake Maye 3 times, but part of that was on a 2nd-year quarterback holding onto the ball for far too long. In short, the Dolphins’ defense is heading to Buffalo without any confidence or belief that they can stymie the Bills at all, and we can’t blame them.

In 2weeks, the Bills have already stacked up 900 total yards. Whether through the air or on the ground, Buffalo’s pass-protection has largely been amazing (Allen has only been sacked twice), and their creative run-blocking schemes have immediately freed up James Cook. The crafty running back is averaging 5.2 yards per carry and already has 3 touchdowns.

The biggest question for Thursday’s total is on Miami’s side. In support of points, Tua finally settled in and looked more like himself, generating an 81% completion rate on 9.8 yards per pass. DeVon Achane never had a big run, but he has the same explosiveness and speed that made him so dangerous last season. He had 8 catches for 92 yards. The same can be said for Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, who combined for 11 catches and 177 yards. 

Interestingly, Miami has put up more points every season under Mike McDaniel when they’ve played at Buffalo, not in South Florida. Orchard Park will be in the low-70s and perfect football weather at gametime, so we simply can’t look any other way.

Dolphins vs Bills best bet: Over 49.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 48.5.

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Chris R. Farley
Player Receiving Yards Pick
K. Shakir (BUF) - Over 40.5 rec yds(-110)

I was on Khalil Shakir’s receiving yards last week against the Jets on the notion that Sauce Gardner would shadow Keon Coleman, and while that part was correct, the game got out of hand and the Bills went run-heavy in a 30-10 victory. Historically, Shakir has struggled against the Jets and against my better judgment, I disregarded that, but will not let that hamper my Week 3 approach.

Shakir’s reception line opened at 3.5 and has since been bet up to 4.5 at plus-money odds. Assuming that 4 number is a baseline, Shakir is over 40.5 in 9/11 last season when getting 4+ receptions. The TNF game against the Dolphins does reek of a blowout if you look at the spread, but the total sits at 49.5 after opening at 48.5, indicating some semblance of offense from the Dolphins. I believe this 40.5 is an overreaction to Week 2’s 1 reception for 12 yards, which would be his worst outing since 2023. Shakir is over this line against the Dolphins in 3 straight games. Miami ranks dead last this season in EPA/Pass allowed and has the 4th-lowest pressure rate, which benefits Shakir, who is targeted on 32% of routes when Allen is not under pressure.

Bobby Stanley Jr. (PropHolliday)
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick
D. Achane (MIA) to score a TD(+120)

Besides Tua Tagovailoa’s misreads, the offense hasn’t been the issue for the Miami Dolphins. They scored 33 points in Week 2, led by De’Von Achane, who totaled 122 yards and a receiving touchdown. In Week 1, the Dolphins’ only score came from a checkdown to Achane on 4th down that he made multiple defenders miss. With an expected negative game script and Achane’s receptions line at 5.5, he should be the focal point of the Dolphins offense, whether it’s a 1-score game or if they find themselves down multiple possessions. I like Achane to score a touchdown on TNF at DraftKings at +120, while the rest of the market is coming in at +105.

jutpicks
Justin Martin (JutPicks)
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick
K. Shakir (BUF) to score a TD(+220)

The sky-high implied team total of the Bills is sitting at 30.5 — one of the highest totals we’ve seen through 3 weeks. The Bills’ offense has been surgical, led by Josh Allen and James Cook, but both have touchdown prices of -160 and -175. So, we’ll move to the next best option in the Bills offense, Khalil Shakir. Shakir has been targeted twice in the end zone through 2 weeks and is logging a 15.7% target share. The woeful Dolphins defense has allowed 30+ points to teams led by Daniel Jones and Drake Maye. Expect Allen to pepper his security blanket, Shakir, who has a receptions line of 4.5.

jutpicks
Justin Martin (JutPicks)
Same Game Parlay
Game Totals
Over 49.5
Anytime Touchdown Scorer
K. Shakir (BUF) to score a TD
Player Passing Yards
T. Tagovailoa (MIA) - 250+ pass yds

Over 49.5 (-110)

Miami gave up 33 points to both Indianapolis and New England in the first 2 weeks. If those teams can do that to the Dolphins, just think what Buffalo is capable of producing on Thursday Night Football. It’s also worth noting that the visitors have 4 defensive starters who are questionable, including DE Chop Robinson. It’s hard to describe just how bad the Fins were against an unspectacular Patriots offense, and now they have to face a Bills juggernaut that has already churned out 900 total yards of offense in 2 outings.

How dynamic is Buffalo’s offense? Well, Josh Allen basically did nothing and it still pinned 30 points on the Jets – this after beating the Ravens 41-40 in the season opener. The only question mark surrounding the home side is defense. Baltimore ran all over the Bills and now 3 key guys are questionable (DT Ed Oliver, LB Matt Milano and CB Taron Johnson).

Khalil Shakir to score a touchdown (+205)

Khalil Shakir was targeted just twice and made only 1 catch in last week’s game. That is not going to cut it for the Bills. They got away with it in an easy win over the Jets, but in the long run, they probably won’t go where they want to go without Shakir being productive. He is their WR1, after all. Count on Allen making a concerted effort to get his top target involved early and often on Thursday night. Shakir made 6 receptions in each of his team’s 3 playoff games last season and did the same in Week 1 against Baltimore. There is no reason why he can’t be productive – a touchdown included – against a Miami defense that ranks #24 against the pass through 2 weeks and has surrendered 3 TDs through the air.

Tua Tagovailoa to record 250+ passing yards (+123)

Tua Tagovailoa might simply reach the 250-yard mark by default. He could throw a million passes on Thursday. It would be no surprise, obviously, if the Dolphins fall into an early hole and get blown out. If that’s the case, they will have to shorten the game by passing, passing and passing some more. Tagovailoa is coming off a 315-yard effort against New England, and that was with a somewhat modest 32 pass attempts. Buffalo ranked #24 against the pass in 2024, so this is a defense that will probably give a fair amount of yardage via the airwaves.

1:00 PM ET
Sun Sep 21
CBS
Cincinnati Bengals
Minnesota Vikings
Bengals
Vikings
Point Spread Pick
CIN Bengals +3.0(-110)

Sunday’s lineup in Week 3 of the NFL season includes a battle between backup quarterbacks for the Cincinnati Bengals and Minnesota Vikings. Jake Browning will be under center for the visiting Bengals, while Carson Wentz is starting for the Vikings. The bad news for Cincinnati is that Joe Burrow will miss at least 3 months following toe surgery; the good news is that this team is off to a bit of a head start at 2-0 and can maybe stay in playoff contention for the duration. Browning may not be anything special, but he does have a decent amount of experience. The 29-year-old played in 9 games for Cincinnati in 2023, when he passed for 1,936 yards with 12 TDs and 7 INTs. Browning was picked off 3 times after Burrow left last week’s game, but the former Washington standout also tossed 2 scoring strikes as the Bengals posted a come-from-behind 31-27 win over Jacksonville.

Wentz, who is filling in for J.J. McCarthy, inspires even less confidence. The 32-year-old will become the first QB in NFL history to start for 6 different teams in 6 straight seasons. There is a reason why no franchise wants him to stick around. The North Dakota State standout was actually decent for the Colts in 2021, but he has been pretty much worthless ever since. With RB Aaron Jones and FB CJ Ham also out, this is a good opportunity for Cincinnati’s much-maligned defense to continue its surprisingly decent play. It held Cleveland to 16 points in Week 1 and picked off Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence twice last weekend. Give me the Bengals plus the points against a thoroughly unspectacular opponent

Bengals vs Vikings prediction: Bengals +3 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Ricky Dimon
Game Totals Pick
Over 41.5(-110)

It’s only Week 3, but Minnesota is completely banged up already. In addition to Jones and Ham being out, linebacker Andrew van Ginkel and safety Harrison Smith are questionable on the defensive side of the ball. That does not bode well for a unit that gave up 6 scoring drives to the Falcons this past Sunday night. Atlanta settled for 5 field goals on those 6 occasions, so it could have been a lot worse than 22 points allowed for the Vikings’ defense.

Although Cincinnati’s defense has been rather encouraging so far, it is rather devoid of talent outside of Trey Hendrickson. At best, it will be a bend-but-don’t-break outfit; at worst, it could be near the bottom of the league. Although there is not much good to say about Wentz, at least he has a ton of experience in this league. When it comes to backup QBs, he and Browning are not the worst options. Surpassing a modest 41.5 number is well within reason.

Bengals vs Vikings prediction: Over 41.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Ricky Dimon
1:00 PM ET
Sun Sep 21
CBS
Indianapolis Colts
Tennessee Titans
Colts
Titans
Point Spread Pick
TEN Titans +3.5(-110)

The lone undefeated team in the AFC South is the Indianapolis Colts at 2-0, as they hit the road for the first time this season on Sunday to face the winless Tennessee Titans. The Colts rolled past the Dolphins in the season opener, 33-8 as QB Daniel Jones threw for 272 yards and was responsible for 3 touchdowns (1 passing and 2 rushing). Indianapolis had to work for its 2nd victory, defeating Denver in the final seconds on a 45-yard game-winning field goal, 29-28. Jones tossed 316 yards through the air, while RB Jonathan Taylor amassed 165 yards on the ground for the Colts.

The Titans are seeking their first win under rookie QB Cam Ward following a pair of losses to the Broncos and Rams. To be fair, Tennessee hung around in both games, but it has scored only 1 touchdown so far. In Sunday’s home defeat to Los Angeles, Ward threw his first career TD pass as the Titans led the Rams, 16-13, late in the 3rd quarter. LA outscored Tennessee 20-3 the rest of the way for the 33-19 victory and cover as 5.5-point road favorites. Ward has failed to reach 200 passing yards in each of his first 2 pro starts. Following 112 passing yards in his debut at Denver, he slightly improved against the Rams with 175 yards. The more telling number is his completion percentage improvement, going from 42.9% against the Broncos to 57.6% against the Rams.

Last season, the Colts swept the Titans, extending Indianapolis’ winning streak over Tennessee to 4 games since the start of 2023. Indianapolis won all 4 games by 8 points or less, including back-to-back 3-point victories in Nashville. In 2024, Indianapolis compiled a 3-6 road record, including a 1-2 straight-up and 0-3 against the spread mark as a favorite. The Titans posted a 4-2-1 ATS mark as a home underdog in head coach Brian Callahan’s first season before losing last week.

Here’s an interesting angle to take on the Titans heading into this week — since 2013, underdogs that are 0-2 have put together an incredible 44-24 ATS (64.7%) mark. Let’s look at the Titans here to cash as a home underdog and at least keep this one within a field goal.

Colts vs Titans prediction: Titans +3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 3.

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Kevin Rogers
Game Totals Pick
Over 43.5(-110)

Both Indianapolis and Tennessee have split their totals through each of the first 2 games. The Colts hit the Under in their opening-week blowout of the Dolphins, prior to an easy Over on a 43 total in the 29-28 thriller against Denver. Tennessee and Denver never threatened the Over in Week 1, as the Broncos held off the Titans 20-12 on a 42.5 total. The total dropped slightly against the Rams, but the huge 2nd half for LA helped drill the Over of 41 in a 33-19 victory in Nashville.

Daniel Jones ranks 2nd in the NFL in passing yards at 588, sitting behind New York’s Russell Wilson, who is coming off a 450-yard performance against Dallas to rank 1st. In the 2 matchups last season, the game in Nashville finished under the total of 41.5 as the Colts snuck by the Titans, 20-17. In the 2nd meeting in Indianapolis, the Colts outlasted Tennessee, 38-30, on a 43.5 total. The yardage per game numbers are overwhelmingly in the Colts’ favor, as Indianapolis is 2nd in the league at 445.5, while Tennessee sits in last at 192.5.

The Colts are riding an 8-2 Over run in the last 10 games dating back to last November. In each of the past 4 games away from Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis has drilled the Over. The Titans are in the midst of a 6-3 Over stretch in the past 9 contests. Tennessee has hit 3 consecutive home Overs, allowing at least 23 points in each of those games. Through 2 games, Titans kicker Joey Slye has knocked through 4 FGs in each loss. The good news is Tennessee has put up 4 and 5 scores in the first 2 games, but they just need to mix in some TDs. The Colts kicked 5 FGs in last week’s win over the Broncos and 4 FGs in the opener against the Dolphins. These teams are scoring, but once they can convert those FGs into TDs, there’s no reason to think they can’t cash the Over on Sunday.

Colts vs Titans pick: Over 43.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 44.5.

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Kevin Rogers
4:05 PM ET
Sun Sep 21
CBS
Denver Broncos
Los Angeles Chargers
Broncos
Chargers
Point Spread Pick
DEN Broncos +3.0(-120)

The Los Angeles Chargers get 3 divisional teams out of the gate and so far have picked up a pair of victories over the Chiefs and Raiders. LA seeks a 3-0 start overall and inside the AFC West with a home victory over the Denver Broncos on Sunday. The defense shut down Las Vegas on Monday night, holding the Raiders out of the end zone in a 20-9 victory as 3-point road favorites. QB Justin Herbert has thrown 5 TD passes in 2 games, including 2 against the Raiders. The Broncos took care of the Titans in the season opener, but fell apart late in last week’s 29-28 last-second defeat at Indianapolis. Following a penalty after the Colts missed the game-winning field goal, Indianapolis converted on its 2nd try to grab the victory as 1-point underdogs. QB Bo Nix threw 3 TD passes for the Broncos, 1 week after getting intercepted twice and getting held to 176 passing yards against Tennessee.

The Chargers finally play at SoFi Stadium after trips to Brazil and Las Vegas in the first 2 weeks. Los Angeles finished 5-3 at home last season, capped off by a 34-27 victory over Denver in Week 16 as the Chargers erased a 24-13 3rd-quarter deficit. The Broncos have slumped to a 1-6 mark in the past 7 road games. The lone win in this span came against the Raiders, as Denver has yielded 29 or more points in 4 consecutive away contests.

Since 2020, the Chargers are 4-1 at home against the Broncos with 3 of those wins by 7 points or less. Denver started last season at 6-1 against the spread on the road, but the Broncos have failed to cover each of their past 4 away games. The Chargers have been impressive so far through 2 games, but LA will no doubt be a huge public play on Sunday. Let’s look at the Broncos with the points on Sunday to grab the underdog cover against the Chargers and at least stay within a field goal.

Broncos vs Chargers prediction: Broncos +3 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Kevin Rogers
Game Totals Pick
Under 46.0(-110)

Denver didn’t allow a touchdown in the season-opening victory over Tennessee. However, the Colts picked up 7 scores last week (2 TDs, 5 FGs) in the 29-28 win in the final seconds. The game easily went over the total of 43 points, marking the 6th Over in Denver’s last 8 road contests. The Chargers and Chiefs cashed the Over of 46.5 points late in the Week 1 thriller in Brazil, as LA held on for a 27-21 victory. The Under of 46.5 points was never in doubt on Monday night in Las Vegas as the Raiders were held to 3 FGs in a 20-9 setback to the Chargers.

Both matchups last season between the Chargers and Broncos finished over the total. Los Angeles won at Denver, 23-16, on a 37 total, followed by a 34-27 shootout victory by the Chargers in December on a 41.5 total. Justin Herbert’s completion percentage took a dip at home last season compared to his road numbers. At home, the Chargers’ QB completed 62.3% of his attempts, while converting on 69.1% of his passes on the road.

The Chargers began last season cashing 3 consecutive Unders at SoFi Stadium, but finished with 5 straight Overs. In the last 4 home games, Los Angeles has allowed 27 or more points each time. Los Angeles enters Week 3 with the 2nd-highest defensive grade according to PFF at 79.4. The Broncos rank 12th in that category and sit 4th in rushing defense. In spite of the two Overs last season between these AFC West rivals, this game could end up finishing lower-scoring than we expect. The December game closed at 41.5, but this total has moved up to 46 points, which feels like an overreaction.

Broncos vs Chargers pick: Under 46 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 45.5.

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Kevin Rogers
8:15 PM ET
Mon Sep 22
ABC
Detroit Lions
Baltimore Ravens
Lions
Ravens
Point Spread PickBest Bet
BAL Ravens -4.5(-115)

You may have heard it before, but the Ravens are pretty good against NFC opponents. In the era of Lamar Jackson, Baltimore is 24-2 when the 2-time MVP starts. That’s gone on far too long to ignore, so there must be something to it. The reality is we often find Baltimore stumbling against familiar opponents like the Browns and Steelers, or the Bills (too soon?).

Against unfamiliar opponents, Jackson and his comrades seem to settle in more easily and freely in their playing style. The result has been catastrophic for their NFC foes, with the Eagles last year and the Giants 3 years ago as the only programs to overcome the juggernaut. And the Ravens often win in dominant fashion. Take 2 years ago, for example, the same season where the Lions went 12-5 and ascended to an NFC championship game. When they traveled to Baltimore in Week 7, they were decimated, 38-6. Jackson had 4 total touchdowns and 327 passing yards on just 27 attempts.

History doesn’t always repeat, but the Ravens seemed to return to form last Sunday; that’s not a good sign for Detroit. After a slow-moving first half, Baltimore dominated Cleveland and covered a 12-point spread by double digits. Their defense was particularly effective, allowing just 4.4 yards per pass to Joe Flacco. 

Of course, Detroit was even more impressive in Week 2, obliterating the hapless Bears and posting a 52-point scoreboard in a loud response to their Week 1 failure. Detroit may not be of the exact same caliber this season, but they’re still good enough to stomp on opponents at home.  On the road will likely be a different story, especially against a Ravens’ team that gets to stay in Charm City, rest and refine their product for 2 weeks leading into this battle. Detroit is an above-average team, but the Ravens are a different animal in these scenarios.

Lions vs Ravens best bet: Ravens -4.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 5.5.

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Chris R. Farley
Game Totals Pick
Under 51.5(-110)

It would be easy to expect an Over in this matchup because of the most obvious factor: what happened last week. Baltimore and Detroit combined for 93 points against their respective opponents in Week 2. But both were against subpar defenses, and both were at home, too. We’re not suggesting the Lions can’t be productive and explosive on the road, we saw plenty of evidence of that last season (31 points per game). Then again, in their 1 road spot this season, it was less than adequate. And the Lions are different.

While a franchise like the Bears can occasionally get blown out by Detroit, better defenses may not find it as difficult opposing Jared Goff and company. The Lions lost 2 stalwart offensive linemen in the offseason. A younger, newly formed offensive line was completely dominated in Week 1 at Green Bay. Contrarily, through 2 weeks PFF ranks Chicago the 2nd-worst defense in the NFL. Last week, the Lions were super explosive (500 total yards), but they had a damn good matchup, too. Meanwhile, Baltimore’s defense ranks 3rd overall, and their front 7 is due positive regression (they’re currently 29th in sack rate). At home, Monday Night Football provides an inviting spot for that regression.  Lamar Jackson and the Ravens’ offense will score, we’re bullish about that, but there’s a real chance that the Lions are greatly limited. We’ll play contrarian and side with the Under.

Lions vs Ravens prediction: Under 51.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Chris R. Farley
4:25 PM ET
Sun Dec 14
Tennessee Titans
San Francisco 49ers
Titans
49ers
Point Spread Pick
TEN Titans +7.5(-110)

By the time Week 14 rolls around, #1 overall Cam Ward should have found his footing in the NFL. That’s not to say Tennessee’s offense will be a well-oiled machine at this point, but it should at least resemble something respectable. As for the 49ers, they seem to be a team on the decline. This franchise might be tempted to blow it all up sooner rather than later, and this late in the 2025 campaign it could be time to tank for a high draft pick. There’s no way I’m giving the Titans more than a touchdown.

Ricky Dimon
1:00 PM ET
Sun Sep 21
FOX
Atlanta Falcons
Carolina Panthers
Falcons
Panthers
Point Spread Pick
CAR Panthers +5.5(-110)

It will be a showdown in the NFC South when the Atlanta Falcons visit the Carolina Panthers on Sunday afternoon. Although Atlanta is 1-1 and looks like the superior football team to winless Carolina, giving 5.5 points on the road in a divisional game seems excessive. As such, my Falcons vs Panthers pick is the home to cover. Atlanta may be a but overrated after blasting a banged-up Minnesota squad 22-6 in Week 2. J.J. McCarthy doesn’t look close to being ready to be a full-time starting quarterback in the NFL and he was playing behind an offensive that is in shambles, so it’s no surprise that the Vikings’ offense made the Falcons’ defense look good. Atlanta’s offense was unspectacular, especially in the red zone. It settled for 5 field goals and did not find the endzone until Minnesota gave up up a late touchdown on purpose because it needed the ball back.

There is no denying that the Panthers have not looked good, losing to the Jaguars and Cardinals. However, both of those setbacks were on the road and Carolina at least managed to be competitive during a 27-22 setback at Arizona this past weekend. Bryce Young threw for 328 yards with 3 touchdowns and 1 interception, a big improvement from Week 1. The former Heisman Trophy winner faced the Falcons just once last year and torched them for 254 yards with 3 TDs and no INTs. Now he goes up against an Atlanta secondary that is missing cornerback A.J. Terrell due to a hamstring injury. These division-rivalry matchups are generally closer than expected, and this one will probably be no exception.

Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers prediction: Panthers +5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Ricky Dimon
Game Totals PickBest Bet
Over 43.5(-105)

My favorite Falcons vs Panthers pick is Over 43.5. Aside from some slight red-zone issues, Michael Penix Jr. has looked very comfortable under center for Atlanta. He already as a great rapport with tight end Kyle Pitts, while receivers Drake London and Darnell Mooney are good to go for Sunday after battling some minor injuries. Bijan Robinson looks like a top-3 running back in the league after torching Minnesota for 143 rushing yards in addition to 25 more yards on 3 receptions. Robinson and company now face a Carolina defense that was dead last in the entire NFL by a country mile in run defense last season (179.8 yards per game allowed). It is #26 in that department through 2 weeks of the 2025 campaign.

It is true that the Falcons’ defense looked good last weekend, but it was a different story against a much more capable quarterback in Tampa Bay’s Baker Mayfield in the season opener. Atlanta came up with just 1 sack and watched Mayfield toss 3 scoring strikes without getting picked off. Young may not be Mayfield, but he restored some confidence with last week’s performance and he has enjoyed success against Atlanta in the past. Let’s also not forget what happened when these 2 division rivals collided in 2024 — the scores were 38-20 and 44-38 in overtime. This simply is not a high enough number for this matchup.

Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers prediction: Over 43.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to 44.5.

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Ricky Dimon
1:00 PM ET
Sun Sep 21
CBS
Houston Texans
Jacksonville Jaguars
Texans
Jaguars
Point Spread Pick
JAX Jaguars -1.5(-110)

There is not a lot to like about the Houston Texans heading into Week 3 of the NFL season. Not only are they 0-2, but they are also playing on a short week after losing at home to the Buccaneers on Monday Night Football. CJ Stroud is a franchise quarterback, but the Texans still can’t protect him. That has always been a problem, and the offensive line is even worse in 2025 following a trade of Laremy Tunsil to the Commanders. Nick Chubb is filling in at running back for Joe Mixon, who could miss the entire 2025 campaign. Chubb scored a late touchdown against Tampa Bay, but he is coming off yet another knee injury and looks to be past his prime.

With just 5 full days of rest, Houston has to go on the road to face the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday afternoon. Jacksonville is 1-1 but probably should be 2-0 after squandering a 4th-quarter lead against Cincinnati in Week 2. The Jags lead the entire NFL in rushing so far, averaging 169.5 yards per contest on the ground. If Trevor Lawrence can play mistake-free football — or at least close to mistake-free — this is an AFC South showdown that the home team should win and cover.

Texans vs Jaguars prediction: Jaguars -1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 2.5.

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Ricky Dimon
Game Totals Pick
Under 44.5(-110)

Houston is quite simply a team in turmoil with an especially large number of question marks on offense. It scored only 9 points against the Rams in its season opener and then 19 against Tampa Bay on Monday Night Football. There is no reason to think that things will get markedly better as soon as Week 3.

The Jaguars may have a better chance to move the football. However, even if they are successful, the clock will likely be on the move. After all, Jacksonville’s scoring drives will likely be run-heavy slogs. That’s what this offense has done through 2 games and there is no reason to mess with success this weekend. It should also be noted that wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. (wrist) is questionable. That could lead to more offensive snaps for #2 overall pick Travis Hunter, but Jacksonville may want to use him more on defense with fellow cornerback Jarrian Jones (back) also questionable.

Texans vs Jaguars prediction: Under 44.5 (-102) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Ricky Dimon
1:00 PM ET
Sun Sep 21
CBS
Pittsburgh Steelers
New England Patriots
Steelers
Patriots
Point Spread Pick
PIT Steelers -1.5(-115)

Both the Steelers and Patriots enter this matchup at Gillette Stadium with 1-1 records. Pittsburgh couldn’t capitalize off its last-minute victory over the Jets in Week 1 as the Steelers were tripped up by the Seahawks at home, 31-17, as 4-point favorites. Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers tossed 4 TD passes in the season opener at New York, but the future Hall of Famer was intercepted twice against Seattle and completed 54.5% of his passes. The Patriots outlasted the Dolphins, 33-27, as 2.5-point road underdogs to give Mike Vrabel his first victory as head coach. New England blew an early 12-0 lead as Miami took a 27-23 advantage in the 4th on a punt return for a score. Antonio Gibson took the ensuing kickoff back for a touchdown to put the Pats back in front and they eventually kicked a field goal to put the game away for their first win over the Dolphins since 2022.

Patriots QB Drake Maye is coming off an efficient 82.6% completion rate against the Dolphins, marking the 7th time in his short career he has completed at least 65% of his passing attempts. Since the start of last season, the Patriots are 2-7 at Gillette Stadium, which includes the opening week defeat to the Raiders. New England has won 2 of its last 11 home contests dating back to Week 9 of the 2023 campaign. The Steelers have lost 6 of their last 7 games since last December, while covering only once in this span. Mike Tomlin’s club is 3-5 against the spread in their past 8 contests in the favorite role. The Patriots held off the Steelers, 21-18, as 5.5-point road underdogs in their last matchup in 2023. That game can be thrown out since the starting QBs were Bailey Zappe and Mitchell Trubisky. Both teams have negative numbers entering this game as far as recent trends go. Looking past that, the Steelers’ defense should be able to get back on track after getting torched in the first 2 games and that should make the difference.

Steelers vs Patriots prediction: Steelers -1.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 2.5.

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Kevin Rogers
Game Totals Pick
Under 44.5(-110)

Pittsburgh’s defense closed last season allowing opponents to score 20.8 points per game, ranking 8th in the NFL. The Steelers have yielded 32 and 31 points, 1 of 3 teams to give up at least 30 points in each of the first 2 games. Pittsburgh has easily gone Over the total through 2 weeks with low totals of 38 and 40.5, as Sunday’s total against New England is set at 44.5. The Patriots remained Under the total in their opening week loss to the Raiders, 20-13, on a 44.5 total. New England and Miami eclipsed the Over of 42.5 points in a 33-27 victory by the Pats last Sunday. It marked the 7th Over in the last 9 games for the Pats dating back to last November. New England owns the worst passing defense in the NFL, allowing 315 yards per game. Geno Smith and Tua Tagovailoa each topped the 300-yard passing mark, but the Pats have managed one interception in each game.

To close out the 2024 season, the Steelers hit the Under in 5 of the final 6 contests. The offense has been limited to 17 points or less in 6 of the last 7 games. Granted, Aaron Rodgers has only been a part of 2 of those games, while leading Pittsburgh to 34 points in the season-opening victory over the Jets. This is actually a good spot to look at the Under with this total adjusted up after the Steelers played to 2 Overs on low totals.  The Patriots were 7-1 to the Over at home last season, but finished Under the total against the Raiders in Week 1. Let’s look at this game to finish in the low 20s on each side.

Steelers vs Patriots pick: Under 44.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 43.5.

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Kevin Rogers
8:20 PM ET
Sun Sep 21
NBC
Kansas City Chiefs
New York Giants
Chiefs
Giants
Point Spread Pick
NY Giants +6.0(-105)

Two 0-2 teams clash on Sunday Night Football, and while one was expected to be in this position, the other has never been winless at this juncture. In fact, at no point during the Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes era have the Chiefs started 0-2, until now. 

After Week 2, oddsmakers and NFL critics are feeling better about the New York Giants. While no one expects a Super Bowl this season, they put up 37 points on the Cowboys in Dallas last week, finally showing signs of life on an offense that’s been dead for a decade. Russell Wilson looked like the 2013 Super Bowl version of himself, hoisting up one long ball after another and connecting with Malik Nabers frequently. The dynamic 2nd-year wideout tallied 167 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns. The Giants’ defense wasn’t quite as stingy, but they were hitting hard and their front 7 made life difficult for Dak Prescott all game.

Normally, even with New York showing signs of improvement, this would be an automatic wager on the Chiefs. After all, the legendary tandem of Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes have repeated Super Bowl visits in 5 of the last 6 seasons, so they know a thing or 2 about rising to the occasion. But last week was another indication of how difficult life currently is for Kansas City, particularly on offense. Against the Eagles, Kansas City’s offense looked good in moments, but they also made mistakes in the worst spots. A turnover at the goal line that would have meant the go-ahead score, and their inability to convert on 3rd downs (they were just 4-12) ended up being the story of the game.

The Giants’ defense is good enough to cause turmoil for an offensive line that has not protected Mahomes well enough (4 sacks, 18 QB hits in the first 2 weeks), and the Giants’ offense has enough momentum to re-create some magic and hang with last season’s AFC champions. We expect another close game, as nothing seems to be coming easy this year for the Mahomes and company.

Chiefs vs Giants prediction: Giants +6 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Chris R. Farley
Game Totals Pick
Under 45.0(-110)

We realize the Giants looked like the greatest show on turf last Sunday, but there’s a fat chance of that repeating. Firstly, New York will go up against the Kansas City Chiefs’ defense that limited the Super Bowl champions to just 216 yards last weekend. Ultimately, Philadelphia did enough to win the game, but even all-world runner Saquon Barkley was kept to just 88 yards on the ground. So far, the Giants have virtually no rushing attack, averaging just 3.6 yards per carry and 79 rushing yards per game. That means Kansas City can focus solely on interfering with Russell Wilson‘s comfort in the pocket. In Week 1, we saw that make a huge difference in the Giants’ production, and we doubt the home team will fly the same way they did against a porous Dallas resistance in Week 2.

On the other side, although the Giants’ defense is still under development and needs to limit offenses in the red zone (they are 31st in this category, allowing a touchdown on 85.71% of red zone possessions), their talent matches up well with Kansas City. Patrick Mahomes has been rushed and hurried constantly for 2 straight games, possibly a consequence of a more shallow offensive line following losses during the offseason. Most notably, Mahomes no longer has Joe Thuney, the all-pro left guard who protected his blind side. He’s also arguably the best pass protector in the NFL. The Giants’ front 7 has yet to completely dominate, but this is a good setup for them to do so. Most Chiefs games may look the same this season — low scoring, defensive battles, and this one is no exception.

Chiefs vs Giants pick: Under 45 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 44.5.

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Chris R. Farley
8:20 PM ET
Sun Nov 30
Denver Broncos
Washington Commanders
Broncos
Commanders
Point Spread Pick
WSH Commanders -2.5(-110)

I’m not a believer in the Broncos. Even if you are a believer, 2.5 points still isn’t enough in this Sunday Night Football showdown. The Commanders are in Washington for this one and teams generally get a 3-point bonus at home, so that means the oddsmakers rate the Broncos as on par or even as the superior of the 2 teams. That’s a no from me, dawg. Jayden Daniels is a much more dynamic quarterback than Bo Nix (and compared to almost everyone), plus he is armed with a better supporting cast. As of right now, this is by far my favorite bet of the season. 

Ricky Dimon

NFL Picks This Week

There are just 18 weeks in the NFL regular season with a maximum of 16 games per week, but NFL Betting is easily the most popular in North America amongst bettors. Our expert handicappers bring decades of experience to all of our NFL picks, providing the best insight, analysis, and value – making every single one of our free NFL picks an expert NFL pick.

Free NFL Picks Explained

We firmly believe expert NFL picks should be free, so you’ll find our NFL picks today, and every day of the season, right here. We publish our free NFL picks for every game, at least a few days in advance of gameday, so you know who the experts are backing without missing out on the early value in the betting markets.

There’s almost an infinite way to bet on the NFL, from NFL picks against the spread, moneyline, over/under, NFL Parlays, and NFL Prop Bets, there is a bet type for every kind of football fan, so we provide NFL picks for every bet type. Some bettors like to specialize in a single particular type of NFL pick, while others like to have a diverse range and bet on anything they feel is a value pick.

Here at Pickswise, we have something for everyone. Our team of handicappers have a wealth of experience in making NFL picks across all these betting markets, leaving no stone unturned ahead of every game and every pick of the 2025 NFL season. If you’re looking for more information on NFL bet types, You can find our expert breakdown of each below.

NFL Picks Against the Spread

The most popular way to bet on the NFL is against the spread (ATS). With these wagers, you are not picking a simple winner or loser of a game. Instead, ATS betting is placing your money that Team A wins by a certain amount of points or that Team B will keep the game closer than oddsmakers expect, in other words, not lose by that same amount of points.

For Example

Philadelphia Eagles -7 – Philadelphia must win by 8 or more points to cover the spread.
Chicago Bears +7 – Chicago must win, or lose by 6 or fewer points to cover the spread.
Tie Scenario – If the game ended 27-20 to Philadelphia, the spread would be a tie, or a push and stakes would be returned.

  • The team that covers the spread wins the game outright around 80% of the time.
  • Road teams on Thursday Night Football covered the spread less than 40% of the time.
  • Teams coming off a blowout loss (20+ points) tend to rebound against the spread, 57% of the time.

Free NFL Over / Under Picks

Another exciting way to still get in on the NFL action is with totals wagers. In these bets you don’t take a side, but whether the two teams will combine to score over or under the total number of points that the oddsmakers have set. Already since sports betting has been legalized we’ve seen many occasions where a hail mary, missed FG or XP has cost over or unders bettors, so be prepared to be in for the long haul with your totals bets. We preview every game of the NFL season, providing insight into the game as a whole alongside expert NFL picks so you can make informed NFL totals bets.

  • Overall, unders have proven the value pick in recent seasons, as defenses have caught up with scoring trending down since 2021
  • Unders bets have the edge in divisional games, landing 57% of the time. This trend gets stronger late in the season (week 13 onwards), especially in cold weather conditions.
  • Unders bets have landed on 58% of primetime games, as public betting tends to have a bias for the overs in these games.

Money Line NFL Picks

Ask any seasoned NFL bettor and they’ll tell you that ATS betting is exciting, but can also be frustrating. It is important to keep in mind that NFL teams only need to win by one, of course, they’d love to win by more, but they’ll change their schemes late on to secure a win, not to ensure they cover the spread. Your research could have given you the right side, but if they win by 6 instead of 7 your -6.5 bet is a loss. Therefore a lot of bettors like to keep it simple and take our expert NFL Money Line picks and bet on the NFL straight up.

  • Moneyline favourites win 66% of the time over the last two seasons, but the underdogs offer better value returns winning 33% of the time
  • Short underdogs (+1 to +3 on the spread) win outright 43% of the time, offering better value on the moneyline than the spread
  • Underdogs in lower scoring road games (less than 42 total points) win outright 39% of the time, but often at better prices than this record suggests.

2025-26 NFL Schedule 

This will be the 106th season in league history and is set to kick off with the NFL Kick-Off game on Thursday, September 4, hosted by the defending Super Bowl Champions Philadelphia Eagles, who take on the Dallas Cowboys. The regular season will come to a conclusion on January 4, 2026 with the NFL Playoffs scheduled to begin the following weekend on the 10th, 11th & 12th of January 2026. Super Bowl LX is scheduled for February 8, 2026, at Levi’s Stadium in San Francisco, California, the home of the 49ers.

NFL Playoff Picks

You can find our NFL picks for the 2026 Playoffs, right here, for free. Wildcard Weekend is scheduled to start January 10, upon the conclusion of week 18 our experts start to make their picks and predictions for the first round of the playoffs and after each round is concluded we prepare for the coming weekend, all the way up to the Super Bowl.

NFL Playoff Picks
NFL Wildcard Weekend Picks
NFL Divisional Round Picks
NFL Conference Championship Picks

NFL Expert Picks

Our NFL Football picks will be for every game throughout the regular season, with primetime games and the top matchups each week getting additional expert coverage which will extend to every playoff game. These NFL Football picks will come alongside analysis and the latest stats and trends to consider when betting. You can also find our NFL Best Bets for the top plays of the week and a confidence rating for our expert handicapper.

Looking for alternative football picks? then head to our College Football Picks page, where you’ll find the same level of expertise from the Pickswise handicapping team for all the headline games in the 2025 NCAA football season.

More Than Just NFL Football Picks

We also specialize in every major North American sport including the MLB, NBA, NHL, College Football, and College Basketball. Check out our site every day for some of the best bets in every major athletic contest and make sure to follow us on social media as well.

Andrew Wilsher, Managing Editor of Pickswise

Statistical Approach to NFL Picks

It’s our goal to provide you with the best NFL picks in the market. Our expert handicappers are all specially selected and assessed prior to joining the team to ensure their analysis. experience and results are among the best in the industry. Each capper will put hours of research into each pick and many have built statistical models to find their moneyline, spread and over/under picks so you don’t have to. Check out all of our cappers’ free NFL picks here every week of the season. 

Andrew Wilsher, Pickswise Managing Editor

NFL Picks FAQs

To bet against the spread in the NFL you are either betting the favorite to win by x number of points or the underdog to win, or lose by fewer than x points. For example the Chiefs -7 points or the Panthers +7 points.

 

 

Pickswise is the best website to get free expert NFL picks against the spread. Our handicappers provide free insight, analysis, and data to back up which way they’re siding against the spread for every NFL game. 

Pickswise is the best place to get free expert NFL picks. We have the best cappers and NFL picks on the market and you can get all of our NFL picks for free! every week. Each pick is meticulously researched by an experienced NFL handicapper, using our own data, custom-built models, and analytical methods.

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