NFL Picks

NFL picks for every game of the 2025-26 season. Our NFL expert picks are informed by key betting trends, statistical analysis and years of NFL betting experience. +82.6 units profit, from 307 winning NFL picks across the 2025 regular season and playoffs is the proof.

NFL Picks against the spread and over/under for the Conference Championship games:

AFC Championship: Patriots vs Broncos

NFC Championship: Rams vs Seahawks

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3:00 PM ET

Sun Jan 25

CBS

Patriots

Broncos

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Point Spread PickBest Bet

DEN Broncos +4.5(-105)

Reasoning

The top-seeded Denver Broncos turn to backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham to knock off his former team to make the Super Bowl. Stidham starts in place of Bo Nix, who suffered an ankle injury in overtime of last week’s 33-30 divisional playoff victory over the Bills. Nix threw for 279 yards and 3 TDs in the win, but Denver needs to beat another AFC East squad for its first Super Bowl appearance since 2016. New England hits the road for the first time in the postseason after beating Los Angeles and Houston in the first 2 rounds.

The Patriots allowed 19 points and only 1 touchdown in the first 2 rounds and have given up 39 points in the past 4 games. New England improved to 14-5 against the spread this season and is in the road favorite role facing Stidham, who played 8 games for the Pats from 2019-2021. Mike Vrabel’s squad compiled a 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS mark when laying points away from Gillette Stadium, beating the Titans, Saints, Bengals and Jets.

Denver won and covered in their 2 opportunities as a home underdog, defeating Kansas City and Green Bay. The Broncos posted a 4-1 ATS record in the dog role in 2025, including road wins at Houston and Philadelphia. Stidham is making his first start since the 2023 season finale against the Raiders, throwing for 272 yards and a TD in a 27-14 defeat. New England faced 1 playoff team on the road, defeating Buffalo 23-20 in Week 5 as 7.5-point underdogs. Yes, this is a tough task to bring in a backup quarterback with a shot to make the Super Bowl, but getting this amount of points with the Broncos at home is too hard to pass up. I believe there’s been an overreaction to Stidham taking over from Nix and will gladly roll with the home dog.

Patriots vs Broncos best bet: Broncos +4.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.

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Game Totals Pick

Under 42.5(-110)

Reasoning

Denver closed the regular season hitting the Over in 4 of its final 6 games before easily cashing the Over in the 33-30 thriller against Buffalo last Saturday. The Broncos begin life without QB Bo Nix, who suffered a season-ending ankle injury as Jarrett Stidham makes his first start since 2023. The Patriots hit the Over against the Texans in Sunday’s sleet-storm, 28-16 on a 41.5 total, marking the 6th Over in the past 7 outings.

New England’s defense has been terrific in a pair of home playoff victories over the Chargers and Texans. The Patriots allowed an average of 224.0 yards per game, along with 4 field goals and 1 touchdown. After struggling to score 16 points against the Chargers, the Pats took advantage of 5 Houston turnovers to reach the 28-point mark for the 6th time in the past 7 games. Denver forced 5 turnovers in the win over Buffalo, aided by 2 interceptions and 3 fumbles. It will be unlikely that these teams will be on the positive side of all these turnovers once again.

The major question heading into the AFC Championship is what impact Stidham can make for this Denver offense, which bypassed the 28-point mark in 5 home games with Nix under center. Patriots QB Drake Maye completed 72% of his passes in the regular season, but that number has dipped to 58.9% in 2 playoff wins. The Chargers and Texans ranked in the top-5 in yards allowed per game in the regular season, while the Broncos finished 2nd. This should be a lower-scoring contest with Stidham running the show, and with the takeaways likely being cut down, look for an Under in Denver.

Patriots vs Broncos prediction: Under 42.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 42.

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Player Field Goals Made Pick

A. Borregales (NE) - Over 1.5 FGs made(-135)

Reasoning

Kicker props have done great for us this season and as things begin to unwind, we going back to the well here. Andy Borregales seemed unfazed by the moment in his playoff debut against the Chargers despite being just 24 years old. He drilled all 3 of his attempts and all we need in the AFC Championship Game is 2 of them. Denver allowed the 2nd-most made field goals during the regular season. Part of that is definitely due to their elite defense at preventing touchdowns, but it’s also important to note the altitude in Denver and that kickers can give it a go from a little further there than normal. Sportsbooks become as sharp as ever when there’s only 2 games on Sunday, but this is the one market I believe has strong value. Let’s roll!

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Team First Drive Results Pick

NE Patriots first drive: Field Goal Attempt(+350)

Reasoning

I love having a correlating longshot so we can remain focused on the main job at hand. The Patriots haven’t opened the game with a field goal drive since December 1 against the Giants. While Denver will have their hands full with Maye, this defense is legit and should prevent him in red-zone situations more often than not. I like the value of this, especially considering you can boost it to +564 odds with DraftKings!

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Josh Gayle (ThatGuyBets)

Same Game Parlay

Point Spread

NE Patriots -5.5

Game Totals

Under 42.5

Player Rushing Yards

R. Stevenson (NE) - 60+ rush yds

Reasoning

Patriots vs Broncos SGP pick: New England Patriots -5.5 over Denver Broncos (-105)

It was a pyrrhic victory for Denver this past Saturday. Just moments after the Broncos finished off the Bills in overtime, head coach Sean Payton shockingly announced Nix’s demise. Just like that, it will be Jarrett Stidham under center for the home team. In his entire 6-year NFL career (which began in New England for 2 seasons), Stidham has played in just 20 games while completing only 59.4 percent of his passes with as many interceptions as touchdowns (8 each).

Denver’s offense already wasn’t very good, in part because J.K. Dobbins went down with a foot injury in Week 10. Now it has to face one of the better defenses in the league with a backup quarterback. As for the Patriots, they are looking good. After rolling to the AFC East title, they disposed of the Chargers 16-3 and then blasted the Texans 28-16. Give me the visitors to prevail by the necessary margin this weekend.

Patriots vs Broncos SGP pick: Under 42.5 (-112)

Championship games are supposed to be high on entertainment, but that is unlikely to be the case with this one. This will probably be a thoroughly unwatchable affair – especially if you are there in person and braving frigid temperatures (and, for Broncos fans, almost certainly watching their team lose).

Each club is led by its defense. In the regular season, Denver’s D ranked #2 overall, #3 in scoring, #2 against the run, #7 against the pass, #2 in yards per pass attempt allowed and #1 in sacks by a mile. New England’s defense was #8 overall, #4 in scoring and #6 against the run. After holding the Chargers to just a field goal in the wild-card round, the Patriots forced a ridiculous 5 Texans turnovers this past weekend. They are going to throw all kinds of looks at Stidham and should be able to dominate this game from start to finish.

Patriots vs Broncos parlay pick: Rhamondre Stevenson to record 60+ rushing yards (+157)

Stevenson appears to be New England’s RB1 for the playoffs. Through 2 games, the Oklahoma product has rushed 26 times for 123 yards to go along with 7 receptions on 8 targets for 86 yards. Backfield mate TreVeyon Henderson got fewer carries in the first 2 rounds (21) and gained just 52 yards in addition to making 2 catches on 3 targets for 7 yards. Henderson was productive during the regular season, but he is a rookie – so it does make some sense that head coach Mike Vrabel appears to be rolling with a more experienced running back (Stevenson is in his fifth season – he was on the Patriots when they reached the playoffs in 2021 with Mac Jones under center).

Stevenson amassed 53 and 60 yards in New England’s first 2 playoff games this year. He also wrapped up the regular season with a 131-yard outburst against Miami. I’m expecting a conservative, run-heavy game script for both teams on Sunday. As such, Stevenson should get lots of carries – and lots of opportunities to reach the 60-yard mark.

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6:30 PM ET

Sun Jan 25

FOX

Rams

Seahawks

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Money Line PickBest Bet

LA Rams Win(+125)

Reasoning

With only 3 games left in the NFL season, we will do our best not to regurgitate the same data points and factoids that have built up all year. By this point, you know who these teams are.

That doesn’t change the fact that the NFC championship game is wildly intriguing for many reasons. Los Angeles and Seattle are 2 of the biggest rivals in the NFL, neck and neck at the top of the NFC West for the last 4 months. Sunday will mark their 3rd meeting this season. The mutual familiarity certainly makes handicapping it a tougher gig. In short, there won’t be many (if any) surprises for the athletes or coaches that could provide an edge for prospective bettors. For example, the Rams have seen the nuances and vigor of the Seattle defense, as the Seahawks have seen the explosive, dynamic qualities of the high-octane Los Angeles offense. Neither will be caught off guard.

And if we add up some of the statistics from their previous 2 games this season, you’ll find they performed remarkably similar:

Yards — Rams: 830, Seahawks: 829
Points — Rams: 58, Seahawks: 57
Time of Possession — Rams: 62:44, Seahawks: 63:63
Plays — Rams: 138, Seahawks: 142

There is, however, a very clear edge at quarterback. Sam Darnold has completed 2 consecutive exceptional seasons as the thrower of 2 separate offenses. With the Vikings and Seahawks, he’s lost just 6 regular-season games the last 2 years. That’s extremely impressive. But the playoffs are a different story.

Darnold wasn’t needed much last Saturday, since the Seahawks’ special teams and defense created an immediate 17-0 lead. He threw the ball just 17 times, completing 12 of his passes for a humble 124 yards. Markets responded positively because they had no other choice, but that doesn’t mean last Saturday meant anything to determine Darnold’s playoff poise (or lack thereof).

In his only other playoff game as a professional quarterback, he was awful. Even more compelling, the loss was against the very same Rams. A budding defense that’s matured and shown more consistency this season (10th in total defensive EPA), the Rams rattled Darnold last January, forcing him into 9 sacks, a forced fumble and an interception. We’d argue he had better offensive talent in Minnesota (although his 2024 Minnesota squad and this year’s Seahawks offense are both 15th in total EPA), too.

Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay have been here before. As good as Seattle’s defense is, the Rams went up and down the field and gained 581 yards in Lumen Field just 1 month ago. Stafford has been unstoppable this season, which is why he’s the odds-on favorite (-450 at FanDuel) to win his first NFL MVP award. Seattle’s defense is scary good and their home-field advantage is real, but the Rams have championship experience and we know that they’re clutch in big moments. Darnold still needs to prove it.

Rams vs Seahawks best bet: Rams ML (+125) available at time of publishing. Playable to +100.

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Game Totals Pick

Under 47.5(-110)

Reasoning

The Rams’ best unit is their offense, and the Seahawks’ best unit is their defense. To our readers, I’m sure both statements will receive the proverbial “duh.” The greater point is this game’s total, which is curiously high at 47.5, is tough to evaluate when the Rams have the ball.

LA’s offense has been one of the best in the NFL without deviation (2nd overall in total EPA behind the Patriots, who had a far easier schedule). From our perspective, there is no better group in the league. In their last matchup, the Rams gained 581 yards. That reality hardly supports a narrative where Seattle’s defense will limit Stafford and company on Sunday, especially considering it was only 4 weeks ago. The Rams also outpaced the Seahawks in first downs (26 to 22) and trips to the red zone, entering scoring territory on 6 different occasions. This season, the Seahawks have given up fewer points than any other defense in the league (16.6), but against the Rams those numbers inflate (21, 37).

Of course, the Seahawks’ defense and special teams are also capable of scoring on their own or creating easy scoring opportunities for their offense. We saw that multiple times last week. The Seattle offense depends on its defense and big plays to score points; they rank as the most explosive in the NFL (1st in points per play). But LA prides itself at limiting big plays, 6th overall in the same category defensively. Either way, the essence of the “Darnold-led offense” hasn’t changed. A year ago in Minnesota, many of his statistics were average, as they are this season (13th in pass yards per game, 28th in interceptions per game), but explosive pass plays and an aggressive defense created a litany of scoring opportunities throughout the regular season. We doubt he’ll have the same opportunities on Sunday.

The postseason breeds more intense defense, and Darnold buckled badly against the same group twice the past 2 years. At the same time, while we expect Stafford, Puka Nacua and Davante Adams and others to get theirs, Seattle’s defense is too good to let the floodgates open the same way again. We’ll fade the market’s decision to place this total over the key number of 47.

Rams vs Seahawks prediction: Under 47.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 47.

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Chris R. Farley

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Why Trust our NFL Picks

At the conclusion of the 2025 regular season, our team of NFL handicappers accumulated 296 wins (and 4 pushes) across sides and totals picks for every game, over those 18 weeks our record speaks for itself. Our expert NFL picks scored +78.1 units of profit throughout the regular season.

The first two rounds of the NFL playoffs are now in the rear view mirror. Through Wild Card Weekend and the Divisional Round we’re up an additional 11 winning NFL picks, our winnings for the whole season now stands at +82.6 units.

You can see the full breakdown of our NFL picks record so far this season below:

NFL Pick	Wins	Push	Losses	Profit (betting units)
Sides (Moneyline/ATS)	157	3	120	+59.4
Totals (Over / Under)	150	1	129	+23.2
Total	307	4	249	+82.6

2025 Regular Season + Playoffs

At Pickswise, every NFL pick is backed by years of betting experience, advanced data analysis, and a proven track record of success. Our team of handicappers studies line movement, injury reports, historical trends, and matchup stats to deliver informed recommendations — not guesses. We publish our results openly, update our predictions as new information emerges, and never hide behind vague analysis. Whether you’re looking for expert spreads, totals, props, or parlays, our mission is simple: give you honest, well-researched picks that stand up over time.

Free NFL Picks Explained

We firmly believe expert NFL picks should be free, so you’ll find our NFL picks today, and every day of the season, right here. We publish our free NFL picks for every game, at least a few days in advance of gameday, so you know who the experts are backing without missing out on the early value in the betting markets.

There’s almost an infinite way to bet on the NFL, from NFL picks against the spread, moneyline, over/under, NFL Parlays, and NFL Prop Bets, there is a bet type for every kind of football fan, so we provide NFL picks for every bet type. Some bettors like to specialize in a single particular type of NFL pick, while others like to have a diverse range and bet on anything they feel is a value pick.

Here at Pickswise, we have something for everyone. Our team of handicappers have a wealth of experience in making NFL picks across all these betting markets, leaving no stone unturned ahead of every game and every pick of the 2025 NFL season. If you’re looking for more information on NFL bet types, You can find our expert breakdown of each below.

NFL Picks Against the Spread

The most popular way to bet on the NFL is against the spread (ATS). With these wagers, you are not picking a simple winner or loser of a game. Instead, ATS betting is placing your money that Team A wins by a certain amount of points or that Team B will keep the game closer than oddsmakers expect, in other words, not lose by that same amount of points.

For Example

Philadelphia Eagles -7 – Philadelphia must win by 8 or more points to cover the spread.
Chicago Bears +7 – Chicago must win, or lose by 6 or fewer points to cover the spread.
Tie Scenario – If the game ended 27-20 to Philadelphia, the spread would be a tie, or a push and stakes would be returned.

NFL spread betting trends 2025

The team that covers the spread wins the game outright around 80% of the time.
Road teams going into games as the favorite have covered the spread at 64% so far this season
Teams coming off a blowout loss (20+ points) tend to rebound against the spread, 57% of the time.

Free NFL Over / Under Picks

Another exciting way to still get in on the NFL action is with totals wagers. In these bets you don’t take a side, but whether the two teams will combine to score over or under the total number of points that the oddsmakers have set. Already since sports betting has been legalized we’ve seen many occasions where a hail mary, missed FG or XP has cost over or unders bettors, so be prepared to be in for the long haul with your totals bets. We preview every game of the NFL season, providing insight into the game as a whole alongside expert NFL picks so you can make informed NFL totals bets.

NFL over / under betting trends

Overall, unders have proven the value pick in recent seasons, as defenses have caught up with scoring trending down since 2021
Unders bets have the edge in divisional games, landing 57% of the time. This trend gets stronger late in the season (week 13 onwards), especially in cold weather conditions.
Unders bets have landed on 58% of primetime games, as public betting tends to have a bias for the overs in these games.

Money Line NFL Picks

Ask any seasoned NFL bettor and they’ll tell you that ATS betting is exciting, but can also be frustrating. It is important to keep in mind that NFL teams only need to win by one, of course, they’d love to win by more, but they’ll change their schemes late on to secure a win, not to ensure they cover the spread. Your research could have given you the right side, but if they win by 6 instead of 7 your -6.5 bet is a loss. Therefore a lot of bettors like to keep it simple and take our expert NFL Money Line picks and bet on the NFL straight up.

NFL Moneyline betting trends

Through the first 4 weeks of the 2025 season 6+ point favourites have been strong straight up, with a 16-2-1 record
Short underdogs (+1 to +3 on the spread) win outright 43% of the time, offering better value on the moneyline than the spread
Underdogs in lower scoring road games (less than 42 total points) win outright 39% of the time, but often at better prices than this record suggests.

2025-26 NFL Schedule

This will be the 106th season in league history and is set to kick off with the NFL Kick-Off game on Thursday, September 4, hosted by the defending Super Bowl Champions Philadelphia Eagles, who take on the Dallas Cowboys. The regular season will come to a conclusion on January 4, 2026 with the NFL Playoffs scheduled to begin the following weekend on the 10th, 11th & 12th of January 2026. Super Bowl LX is scheduled for February 8, 2026, at Levi’s Stadium in San Francisco, California, the home of the 49ers.

NFL Playoff Picks

You can find our NFL picks for the 2026 Playoffs, right here, for free. Wildcard Weekend is scheduled to start January 10, upon the conclusion of week 18 our experts start to make their picks and predictions for the first round of the playoffs and after each round is concluded we prepare for the coming weekend, all the way up to the Super Bowl.

NFL Playoff Picks
NFL Wildcard Weekend Picks
NFL Divisional Round Picks
NFL Conference Championship Picks

NFL Expert Picks

Our NFL Football picks will be for every game throughout the regular season, with primetime games and the top matchups each week getting additional expert coverage which will extend to every playoff game. These NFL Football picks will come alongside analysis and the latest stats and trends to consider when betting. You can also find our NFL Best Bets for the top plays of the week and a confidence rating for our expert handicapper.

Looking for alternative football picks? then head to our College Football Picks page, where you’ll find the same level of expertise from the Pickswise handicapping team for all the headline games in the 2025 NCAA football season.

More Than Just NFL Football Picks

We also specialize in every major North American sport including the MLB, NBA, NHL, College Football, and College Basketball. Check out our site every day for some of the best bets in every major athletic contest and make sure to follow us on social media as well.

Andrew Wilsher, Managing Editor of Pickswise

Statistical Approach to NFL Picks

It’s our goal to provide you with the best NFL picks in the market. Our expert handicappers are all specially selected and assessed prior to joining the team to ensure their analysis. experience and results are among the best in the industry. Each capper will put hours of research into each pick and many have built statistical models to find their moneyline, spread and over/under picks so you don’t have to. Check out all of our cappers’ free NFL picks here every week of the season.

Andrew Wilsher, Pickswise Managing Editor

NFL Picks FAQs

How Do You Pick Against The Spread In The NFL?

To bet against the spread in the NFL you are either betting the favorite to win by x number of points or the underdog to win, or lose by fewer than x points. For example the Chiefs -7 points or the Panthers +7 points.

The number of points is set by sportsbooks and is often referred to as the line

What Is The Best Website For NFL Picks Against The Spread?

Pickswise is the best website to get free NFL picks against the spread. Our handicappers provide free insight, analysis, and data to back up which way they’re siding against the spread for every NFL game. So far this NFL season our experts have secured 86 winning NFL picks for a profit of 26 units

Where Is The Best Place To Get NFL Picks?

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Each pick is meticulously researched by an experienced NFL handicapper, using our own data, custom-built models, and analytical methods. Our profit this season is 26 units and rising, so don’t miss out on the best NFL picks this week.