NFL Picks

Perceptions have never been higher on the Cowboys. One week after knocking off the Eagles, a game that sent Philly’s hopes into a spiral, Jerry Jones’ franchise beat the Kansas City Chiefs, cementing victories against each of last year’s Super Bowl attendees. Dallas’ Thanksgiving win might’ve been more impressive than their Week 13 takedown of the Eagles since it included more big plays from their defense. Obviously a different group than the bottom-feeders that started the season, the Cowboys’ defense held Kansas City to just 6 yards per play and 5-13 on 3rd down.

Fresh new faces this season made impacts throughout the game, including 2 sacks by Jadeveon Clowney, one by Dante Fowler Jr., and others made key stops when it mattered. Their offense continued to show off, too. Against one of the best defenses and best defensive coaches in the NFL, Dak Prescott avenged an early interception to go 27/39 for 320 yards and 2 touchdowns. The bulk of that production came from his 2 all-world receivers, George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb, who combined for 13 catches, 200 yards and a touchdown. Their ground attack also continued to exceed expectations (26 carries for 137 yards), good for 5.3 yards per carry.

Perhaps most important of all, Cowboys coach Brian Schottenheimer was in full command against the 3-time Super Bowl-winning Chiefs, outwitting Steve Spagnuolo in key moments of the game. At 6-5-1, Dallas is in position to threaten for an NFC East crown, believe it or not!

Things didn’t go so smoothly for the Lions on Thanksgiving. Just like 2 seasons ago, they allowed Jordan Love and an upstart Packers’ offense to slice through their resistance when it mattered. Green Bay threw for 7.8 yards per pass and eventually put up 31 points, and then their defense shut down the Lions’ offense in the 4th quarter. It was a startling showing from Dan Campbell’s program, an outfit we expect to show up and play elite football in these spots. Even worse, Detroit has key injuries throughout their offense. Amon-Ra St. Brown is officially a game-time decision on Thursday, Detroit is down to its 3rd tight end and center Graham Glasnow remains out.

Our first inclination was to go with Detroit off a loss, at home, and with increasing desperation to get their season back on track. But there’s too much momentum on Dallas’ side right now, and we’re not sure how the Lions will be able to stop Dak and his first-class offense (4th in EPA per pass). We’ll go with the visitors.

Cowboys vs Lions TNF prediction: Cowboys +3 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

You can bet on our Cowboys vs Lions pick with BetMGM, where right now new users can activate your new BetMGM account ⚡ and receive $150 in bonus bets INSTANTLY if your first $10+ wager is a winner!

The obvious approach in a game with 2 offenses as potent as the Cowboys and Lions is to consider the over. Markets obviously know that. Even at opening, this total was far above average and has barely budged, now circulating around 53.5 depending on the book. Both programs have shown impressive defensive performances at various junctures this season, but for the most part Dallas and Detroit are well below the mean on that side of the ball.

For example, although they’ve played better recently, the Cowboys rank in the bottom 5 in opponent points per game and points per play and in opponent yards per game in yards per play. Lately their defense has been aided by new additions Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson, who coincidentally arrived around the same time that Dallas’ defensive roster got healthier. That helped their resistance limit the Raiders to 16 and the Eagles to 21 points, but last week they still permitted 28 to the Chiefs, a team far more comparable to the high-powered Lions.

It’s tough not to be disappointed by Detroit’s performance last Thursday, but one must keep in mind that it was against a tough divisional opponent. Green Bay seems to have Detroit’s number. Dallas can say no such thing. Last season, the Cowboys allowed a similarly constructed Lions’ roster to put up 47 points at AT&T Stadium. This Thursday, Detroit is surely incurring some injury problems, but they should also be hyper-motivated to correct their mistakes, especially since the NFC North crown is at risk of slipping away. And as most know, the Lions depend on their offense to carry them to victory (they’re top three in points and yards per game).

We could get cute here, but we must take the over.

Cowboys vs Lions best bet: Over 53.5 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to 54.5.

If you’re looking for a new sportsbook, check out Bet365, the world’s #1 sportsbook. They have an amazing sign-up offer where you can INSTANTLY receive $150 in bonus bets from a $5 wager, regardless of whether that bet wins or loses! There’s no catch, it’s really that simple. Join Bet365 right now ⏰ in time to fade or follow our experts’ Cowboys vs Lions predictions.

Thirteen weeks into the season and most NFL pundits wouldn’t have guessed that the Texans would have the better record. At 7-5, Houston is again a threat in the AFC South, since the Colts have stumbled recently (lost three of their past four), including last Sunday’s loss to the very same Texans. That means there will be no lack of focus or effort for a Texans’ squad that’s playing their best football of the season entering Week 14.

Houston has won four straight and it’s mostly because of their defense. At this point they need no introduction, but it’s not a stretch to say that Houston’s defense is the best the NFL has to offer, a unit that’s allowed more than 300 yards just three times this season. 

The Texans’ offense has done enough, averaging 338 yards per contest during their four-game winning streak. Stoic performances by Davis Mills and last Sunday from a returning CJ Stroud provide the Texans’ with enough production every week, considering their defense always limits the enemy offense. Rookie running back Woody Marks, who’s getting more touches every week (19 carries for 64 yards in Week 13) has provided more consistency on the ground, too.

Kansas City is getting maligned by the media again and it’s for a good reason. Although Patrick Mahomes’ magic is always prevalent and at times the Chiefs’ offense looks like it always has, it’s reminding us more of Josh Allen’s situation (and not in a good way). Mahomes has to do too much to keep his offense afloat, a group that’s simply not as talented and not as steady as former iterations. That’s especially true up front. Mahomes has been sacked three or more times in his past five starts. Kansas City’s defense is struggling too. They rank 20th in total defensive EPA and allowed Dak Prescott’s offense to drop 457 yards on them last week. Houston is not Dallas, but there’s certainly cause for concern in Chiefs-land. At 6-6, no team is on alert, but they have a favorable schedule (three home games and road spots at TEN/LV) remaining.

Andy Reid’s Chiefs are notoriously buttoned up in December, going 4-0 in three out of five previous seasons (the other two: 3-1, 1-3). But this isn’t the same Chiefs’ team, certainly not according to nearly every metric and qualifier. Houston’s first-class defense is enough to keep them in this game, even if their offense mostly sputters.

Texans vs Chiefs SNF prediction: Texans +3.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 3.

You can bet on our Texans vs Chiefs pick with BetMGM, where right now new users can activate your new BetMGM account ⚡ and receive $150 in bonus bets INSTANTLY if your first $10+ wager is a winner!

Unsurprisingly The Texans’ defense ranks 1st overall in opponent points (16.5) and yards (265.7) per game, and they’re top-two on preventing third down conversions (33.77%). Needless to say, the Chiefs’ offense will face challenges on Sunday night. Overall Kansas City still qualifies as a top-tier operation, ranking #1 in overall EPA metrics, including top-4 marks in EPA per pass and EPA per rush. Those metrics are mostly due to a generational quarterback talent and one of the greatest playcallers in NFL history, a duo that’s been at the top since they joined forces seven years ago. But the Chiefs are not without their flaws.

Mahomes is getting sacked more than he ever has in his career, 27 times in just 12 games. Against good defenses he’s also been limited, throwing for just 240 yards per game and a lowly 61% completion percentage against the Chargers, Eagles, and Broncos. The Texans’ defense is the best or one of the best in nearly every conceivable metric against the pass, including a #1 rank in defensive EPA per pass and top-three marks in opponent yards per pass (6.3) and completion percentage (58.4%). It doesn’t help that the Chiefs’ offensive line, which has grossly underperformed this year, is all banged up. Three out of five linemen are questionable, two are trending in the wrong direction. Kansas City’s rushing attack has been a middling operation all season, ranked 15th in yards per rush (4.4). Houston is just as stingy in run-defense, too (3rd in opponent rush yards per game).

We haven’t talked much about the Texans’ offense because we don’t believe we need to. CJ Stroud has been good, not great, and as a group they average 21.9 points per game (21st). At Arrowhead Stadium on a cold, blustery night, we don’t like their chances to overperform against Steve Spagnuolo’s defense, especially after their poor outing last week. There’s only one way we can look here.

Texans vs Chiefs best bet: Under 42.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 41.5.

If you’re looking for a new sportsbook, check out Bet365, the world’s #1 sportsbook. They have an amazing sign-up offer where you can INSTANTLY receive $150 in bonus bets from a $5 wager, regardless of whether that bet wins or loses! There’s no catch, it’s really that simple. Join Bet365 right now ⏰ in time to fade or follow our experts’ Texans vs Chiefs predictions.