NFL Picks

It would be easy to expect the Ravens to blow out the Dolphins in this spot. After all, even without Lamar Jackson, the Ravens smoked the Bears in Week 8 in arguably their most impressive team performance of the season. Roaring back after the bye-week, Baltimore held Caleb Williams and the new-look Chicago offense to just 16 points and perhaps most importantly, only 96 rushing yards. It was a sign of the old Ravens’ defense, although they still permitted 372 yards and Chicago went 6-13 on third-down conversions. A turnover, a missed field goal, and other mishaps contributed. The Ravens’ defense looked better, but we need more evidence that they’re getting closer to their old form. The Ravens’ offense looked back in its bag, sealing 24 first downs and 30 points in an assertive return from their bye-week. Harbaugh expects Lamar to play in Week 9, which is obviously a major boost for the Ravens’ offense. Arguably no single player adds more value, and now Baltimore can build off a clean performance from last week.

The Dolphins had (easily) their best showing of the season last Sunday. In one of the more mind-blowing results of Week 9, they dominated the Falcons 34-10 in Atlanta, out-gaining the home team 338-213. Of course, it was also a shocking performance by the Falcons, who previously played their best football in front of their fans. Kirk Cousins didn’t look ready for the bigger role, and Atlanta’s defense capitulated. For one week, Mike McDaniel saved his job in South Beach, and sometimes even a small win is enough to catalyze a team’s confidence. This is also a very assertive line for the Ravens, who have only played one solid game the last two months, with and without Lamar. It’s not an easy play in either direction, but the Ravens don’t deserve this designation just yet, especially on the road.

Ravens vs Dolphins prediction: Miami Dolphins +7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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We’re not ready to trust the Ravens’ defense. Caleb Williams and the Bears’ offense made mistakes, but they still produced plenty. If Williams doesn’t throw an interception, the Bears may have taken the lead in the fourth quarter. After all, they had just completed an 11-play, 83-yard touchdown drive to start the final period, and momentum was shifting in their direction. 

The Dolphins’ offense hasn’t been quite as consistent, but last week they finally found a groove. They ran for 141 yards, more like the explosive operation of season’s past, and Tua Tagovailoa was smooth: 20-26, 205 yards, 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. Back home and with renewed energy, the Dolphins still have plenty of talent and speed to expose a Baltimore defense that’s allowed 30 points per game (30th). 

On the other side, the Ravens caught fire last week, gaining 177 rushing yards and visiting the red-zone 6 times – scoring a touchdown on half of those trips. Lamar Jackson’s return is as significant an offensive boost as there can be for a single player. The former Louisville star needs no introduction, and he should be able to further stretch a Miami defense that’s been among one of the worst rushing defenses in the league all season (opponents average 5 yards per carry, 29th). One week against a shaky Kirk Cousins doesn’t make the Dolphins a better defense.

Miami is slated to be in the lower 80s and beautiful, perfect weather for an over. This number isn’t high enough.

Ravens vs Dolphins best bet: Over 50.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 51.5.

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A pair of AFC division leaders hook up in Pittsburgh on Sunday when the Steelers (4-3) will try to snap a 2-game losing streak. The Colts (7-1) own the best record in the NFL and have scored the most points with 270. Moreover, they own the biggest point differential in the league at +116. Indianapolis torched Tennessee for the second time this season in a 38-14 rout as 14.5-point home favorites last week. RB Jonathan Taylor has already bypassed his rushing touchdown total from last season with 12 TDs in 8 games, including 2 more scores against the Titans.

The Steelers look to pick themselves up following consecutive losses to the Bengals and Packers. In last Sunday night’s 35-25 home defeat to Green Bay, Pittsburgh led 16-7 at the half. However, the Pack outscored the Steelers, 28-9 in the second half and Pittsburgh’s defense gave up at least 340 passing yards for a second straight game. QB Aaron Rodgers hasn’t thrown for more than 250 yards while wearing the black and gold yet, but has put up at least 2 TD passes in 3 straight games.

Pittsburgh is listed as a home underdog for the 2nd straight week, while Indianapolis looks to improve to 5-1 against the spread as a favorite this season. The Colts held off the Steelers, 27-24 last season as 2.5-point home underdogs, beating Pittsburgh for a 2nd straight season. Indianapolis leads the NFL in yards per game, while Pittsburgh ranks 30th in yards allowed per game.

Five of Indianapolis’ 7 wins have come against teams with losing records. The two victories over teams with winning records came in the final seconds against the Broncos in Week 2 and a blowout of the Chargers as a road underdog. The public will be all over the Colts in this one, but the Steelers are worth a strong look here to end their slide as a home underdog.

Colts vs Steelers prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers +3 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Both Indianapolis and Pittsburgh have been strong over teams this season. The Colts are 5-3 to the over, while the Steelers are 5-2. Pittsburgh’s defense has been responsible for the latest string of overs, allowing 33 points to Cincinnati and 35 points to Green Bay the past 2 losses. Meanwhile, Indianapolis’ offense has produced 31 or more points in 6 games, but has given up at least 20 points in all 3 road contests.

In last season’s matchup in Indianapolis, the Colts held off a late Steelers’ rally in a 27-24 victory, easily going over the total of 41. Sunday’s total has shot up to 50.5, but it is worth noting that Justin Fields and Joe Flacco started that game. As we know, both are with different teams this season. Pittsburgh hasn’t seen a total of at least 50 since the 2020 season. There’s been one total in the 50s for Indianapolis this season, which stayed under in its lone loss to the Rams, 27-20 in Week 4.

QB Daniel Jones has thrown 9 TDs the last 4 games for the Colts. In 5 of the last 6 games, the Steelers have allowed at least 2 TD passes, which doesn’t seem sustainable. Pittsburgh is averaging 21.6 points per game at Acrisure Stadium, compared to 27.5 ppg on the road and in its one game in Dublin. It’s easy to think Indianapolis will continue to roll offensively and Pittsburgh will keep struggling defensively. However, with this being Pittsburgh’s highest total in almost 5 seasons, the under is worth a strong look here.

Colts vs Steelers pick: Under 50.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Jacksonville Jaguars (4-3) were on top of the world after rallying from a 14-0 deficit to stun the Kansas City Chiefs, 31-28 in Week 5. However, the Jags have dropped their last two games to the Seahawks and Rams, as Jacksonville heads to Las Vegas following the bye week. The Raiders (2-5) are also off the bye, as they were shut out by the Chiefs, 31-0 in Week 7. Jacksonville traveled to London in Week 7 to face the Rams and were blown out, 35-7. For the exception of rookie WR Travis Hunter scoring his first NFL touchdown, there weren’t many highlights for the Jags. Following consecutive outings of 26 points against San Francisco and 31 points against Kansas City, the Jaguars combined for 19 points in their last two losses.

The Raiders somehow beat the Patriots in Week 1 on the road, but Las Vegas has lost five of its past six games. Pete Carroll’s team has been held to six points in its last two losses, but busted out for 20 points in its second victory of the season against Tennessee in Week 6. QB Geno Smith has struggled this season, throwing for less than 200 yards in four of six games since posting 362 yards in the Week 1 win at New England. These teams met late last season at Allegiant Stadium, as the Raiders held off the Jaguars, 19-14. However, the two starting quarterbacks for that game were Mac Jones for Jacksonville and Aidan O’Connell for Las Vegas. Jaguars’ QB Trevor Lawrence threw for a season-best 296 yards against the Rams, but also posted a season-low completion percentage of 47.9%. The last 4 losses for the Raiders as an underdog came by 31, 34, 17, and 11 points. After Jacksonville has struggled the last 2 games against 2 solid NFC West teams, this is a good spot to back them as a road favorite to beat Las Vegas.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Las Vegas Raiders prediction: Jaguars -3 (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Raiders are in the midst of a 3-0 Under run the last three games, scoring a total of 26 points. Las Vegas had posted 24 points in each of the previous two games to Chicago and Washington, but the offense has stalled out of late, capped off by a shutout loss at Kansas City. Jacksonville is also on a short Under run, hitting it in the last two losses to Seattle and Los Angeles. The Jaguars scored 31 points in their comeback victory over Kansas City in Week 5, but Jacksonville has been limited to 19 points in the past two losses. In three games away from North Florida, the Jags have allowed an average of 29.0 points per game, while the Under is 2-1. In their 2 true road games, the Over of 49.5 easily hit at Cincinnati and the Over of 46 barely cashed at San Francisco.

The Raiders scored 3 TDs in a home loss to the Bears, but posted a total of 2 TDs in their other two home games against the Chargers and Titans. Las Vegas is 4-1 to the Under in five games as an underdog this season, while the Raiders have given up 20 or less points in two of three home games. Last season’s matchup saw the total close at 41.5 as the Raiders beat the Jaguars, 19-14 with both teams starting backup quarterbacks. Sunday’s total is up to 44.5 as Jacksonville is 4-1 to the Over in QB Trevor Lawrence’s last five true road games since last season. The Jags should be able to score against this Raiders’ secondary, while Jacksonville has struggled defensively the last few games.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Las Vegas Raiders prediction: Over 44.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills have an interesting history over the last four seasons. The Bills are 4-0 against the Chiefs in the regular season and 0-3 in the postseason since 2021. These AFC powers meet at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park as the Bills look to build off a 40-9 road blowout of the Panthers last Sunday as 7.5-point favorites. Buffalo entered its game at Carolina off a bye and a two-game losing streak. Bills’ RB James Cook ran for 216 yards and 2 TDs, while QB Josh Allen rushed for a pair of TDs. The Bills covered for the first time in five games, as Buffalo limited an opponent to single-digits for the first time this season. The Chiefs have won all five games this season by 13 or more, capped off by Monday’s 28-7 rout of Washington as 10-point home favorites.

During this 3-game winning streak, Kansas City has allowed 24 points, with 17 of those coming to Detroit in Week 6. Chiefs’ QB Patrick Mahomes has thrown 3 TDs in each of those victories, while completing 73.7% of his passes. In last year’s regular season meeting in Buffalo, the Bills beat the Chiefs, 30-23 even though Mahomes posted 3 TD passes. In the AFC championship game, Kansas City held off Buffalo, 32-29, the third playoff victory in the series decided by six points or less. The Bills won outright in their only opportunity as an underdog in their comeback triumph over the Ravens in Week 1, 41-40. The Chiefs are 1-2 ATS in three favorite opportunities away from Arrowhead Stadium, including outright losses to the Chargers and Jaguars. Let’s ride the trend of this series and back the Bills as a short underdog to beat the Chiefs here in a regular season matchup.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills prediction: Bills +2.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to +2.

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Both matchups last season between Kansas City and Buffalo finished Over the total. In the regular season meeting in Buffalo, the Bills won 30-21 as QB Josh Allen’s late TD run got the game Over the total of 47.5. In the AFC Championship in Kansas City, the Chiefs held off the Bills, 32-29 on a 49 total, as the total cashed with 10 minutes left in the fourth quarter. This season the Chiefs are 2-1 to the Over in 3 games away from home, including in the Monday night loss at Jacksonville. Kansas City is 5-3 to the Under this season, as the defense has stepped up by allowing seven points in the past two games. The Bills are 4-3 to the Over, including a 3-1 Over mark at Highmark Stadium. In three of four home games, Buffalo has scored at least 31 points.

In the last four matchups, Allen has thrown 5 TDs, while Mahomes has tossed 7 TDs. Both the Bills and Chiefs rank in the top-5 of the NFL in yards per game, while Buffalo leads the league in rushing yards per game at 164.4. On the flip side, the Bills are second in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game, followed by the Chiefs. In three games with a total of 50 or higher, the Bills are 2-1 this season, while Kansas City finished Under against Detroit on a 52.5 total. Buffalo has faced one quarterback that ranks in the top-15 in passing yards this season, which is New England’s Drake Maye. Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes is second in the NFL in passing yards with 2,099, which will be a test for this Buffalo defense. The Chiefs have faced two subpar offenses the last two weeks in Washington and Las Vegas. The history between the Chiefs and Bills suggests that there will be points scored here and the Over is worth a strong look in this battle of AFC powers.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills prediction: Over 52.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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NFL media is all over the Washington Commanders right now. Fresh off the heels of an embarrassing showing on Monday Night Football in which they lost 7-28 at Kansas City, injuries and concerns about their postseason chances are flooding news outlets. Last season, Jayden Daniels was the popular new kid at school. He was flashy, calm, and unflappable even as a rookie in the postseason. But injuries, including multiple to Daniels this season, have started to derail hope.

Last week it got worse. They only managed to gain 260 total yards and 14 first downs, routinely failing to get into scoring range (just 1/2 in the red-zone) and putting their defense on the field far too often (KC led time of possession 34-26). Even more problematic is their new slew of injuries: kicker Matt Gay has back issues, All-Pro lineman Laremy Tunsil left Monday with a hamstring problem, Terry McClaurin returned on Monday but reportedly felt uncertain about his quad issues following the contest, and, at this juncture, we’re still not sure if Daniels will play in Week 9. According to Dan Quinn, their enigmatic starting QB is expected to practice on Wednesday.

In short, this feels like an “all-in” type of game for the Commanders, who could fall to 3-7 if they lose their next 2 battles (vs. SEA, vs. DET). They’ll be the underdogs in each matchup, and they know they need to win now.

In complete contrast to their foe, Seattle is coming off their bye-week with seemingly no issues. Pro Football Focus ranks the Seahawks as the 2nd-best program in the NFL, #2 on offense and #7 on defense. They have no notable injuries, with perennially banged up Devon Witherspoon and Julian Love trending in the right direction. Perhaps most impressive is their passing prowess, a catalyst to a surprising top-5 offense that brings a #1 ranked 9.0 yards per pass into the nation’s capitol on Sunday night. 

This is the time of year where desperate teams play much better. Judging by Quinn’s comments, it looks like Jayden Daniels will be in line to play on Sunday night. Most of Washington’s injured players are questionable and trending in the right direction, and they’re back in DC until December 7th – over a full month of hometown comforts to get right. In the back of our minds, we still know what Daniels and the Commanders are capable of, and now their backs are against the wall. This is simply a spot to take the underdog, regardless of what the analytics suggest.

Seahawks vs Commanders best bet: Washington Commanders +3.5 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to 3.

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The Seahawks are a hard team to figure out from a totals perspective. Right in line with the well-balanced product they put out on a weekly basis, through 7 weeks of action they’re 4-3 to the over. Even in the games where they went over, it’s not like they faced a who’s-who of explosive offenses (PIT, NO, TB, HOU). But one thing is for sure: the Seattle offense is humming.

Sam Darnold has been incredibly consistent. The 2018 3rd overall pick might’ve found his long-term home, passing for 244.4 yards per game (8th) despite throwing the ball less than 30 other programs (they call pass plays just 50,37%, a 31st ranking). This has created an explosive operation that’s 3rd in yards (6.0) and 4th in points per play.

Unfortunately for the home team, that’s where their defense struggles most: allowing explosive plays. Washington ranks 29th in opponent yards per play (5.9) and struggles in the red-zone, too, permitting a touchdown on 64.29% of possessions inside the 20 (25th). 

The total will be decided when Washington has the ball, since it’s likely Seattle will score plenty. Seattle is a top-10 defense in most categories, including a 3rd-best mark in opponent yards per play (4.7), but as you’re probably gathering from all these statistics, the margins are small. A healthy Jayden Daniels means the Commanders are capable of feats like we saw in Week 5, when virtually no one predicted they would waltz into Los Angeles and dominate the Chargers, a game where they put up 27 and gained 7.1 yards per play.

Daniels changes the Commanders’ entire ceiling. Combine that with the desperate nature of their current situation and it’s a recipe that strongly suggests we’ll see more production than usual.

Seahawks vs Commanders prediction: Over 46.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 47.

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Week 8 was another routine, poor performance from the Cowboys. Away from AT&T Stadium, Dallas realized their 4th loss of the season. For their fans, it wasn’t for the meek of heart. In most ways, the Broncos eviscerated the visitors, accruing 44 points and 426 yards on 7.5 yards per play. Through the air, Bo Nix was electric, hitting 8.5 yards per pass and leading Denver to a pristine 4 touchdowns on 5 red-zone attempts. It was yet another indignation of the Cowboys’ defense, a group that was without Trevon Diggs –who’s now on injured reserve – and has been one of the worst units in the NFL all season (31st in opponent yards, points per play, opponent yards and points per game).

The good news is that Dallas is a different team at home, especially on offense. In 3 games at “Jerry’s’ world,” the Cowboys have averaged a ridiculous 41 points per game, and they did it against 2 NFC East foes (NYG, WAS) as well as the Packers, who qualify as a top-3 defense according to Pro Football Focus.

The Cardinals rank 24th in the same category, which is our biggest issue with betting on Arizona. Of course, Kyler Murray will return in Week 9, which many see as an upgrade. We’re not so certain. Jacoby Brissett played well in 2 starts for Arizona, putting up respectable numbers (599 passing yards, 4 touchdowns, 1 interception) against 2 of the NFL’s best teams (IND, GB). Murray has been average at best this season, leading a mediocre passing attack that was averaging 5.97 yards per pass, a bottom-3 ranking. 

No matter what way we look at it, the Cardinals have lost 5 games in a row for a reason. Their offense is often out-of-sync, and their defense rarely plays up to expectations for a full 4 quarters. Dallas has been a buzzsaw at home, and right now they have the far better quarterback.

Cardinals vs Cowboys best bet: Dallas Cowboys -2.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 3.

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To allege that the Cardinals might be able to slow down or limit the Cowboys’ offense, we would need substantial evidence to support such a claim. Unfortunately for Arizona fans, that doesn’t exist. While the visiting team has some respectable marks, like their 6th-place ranking in opponent third-down conversion rate (35.29%) and 7th-place ranking in opponent yards per pass (6.5), most data points suggest that they’re average at best. They are 13th in opponent points (22) and 19th in opponent yards per game (335.7), but even that data is somewhat positively skewed since they’ve faced poor offenses like New Orleans, Carolina, Tennessee, and a tremendously-injured 49ers’ roster in Week 3 (and they still lost). Against superior offenses like Seattle, Indianapolis and Green Bay, the Cardinals permitted 27 points per game.

The Cowboys are statistically better than all of those NFL offenses but the Colts, and they’re far better than every program at home. Putting up 41 points per game at AT&T Stadium is one thing, averaging 441 yards at home is another. The addition of George Pickens has meant a significant uptick in production for Dak Prescott and their air-attack, a receiver that started to shine when CeeDee Lamb had to sit out in 4 contests this season. Now Pickens and Lamb are both healthy and apparently thick as thieves, 2 buddies who make it their goal to punish enemy defenses every week. Together they’ve accrued 1,091 yards and 7 touchdowns. On Monday they’ll battle a defense that’s 27th in opponent pass completion percentage (62.05%) and 25th in opponent pass yards per game (234.9). Without any weather interruptions, there is only one way to look.

Cardinals vs Cowboys prediction: Over 53 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to 54.5.

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