NFL Picks

In one of the more shocking results of Week 5, the Bills were upset by the Patriots at home. In truth, Buffalo has been shaky for the last 3 weeks, playing down to their competition and at times seemingly playing with their food. After a stunning comeback victory in Week 1 against Baltimore, it’s as if the Bills assumed autopilot was good enough, gaining an average of 360 yards and scoring 82 points during that span. For most teams, those marks would indicate a rousing success, but for the Bills, it’s come against 2 bottom-feeder outfits (Miami and New Orleans) and an up-and-comer in the Patriots, who are clearly better than the market indicated in Week 5. They’ve only averaged a +6-point differential the past 3 weeks, too. In any case, Buffalo may need a trip out of their comfort zone to rattle back into top-form, which is exactly what they’ll get in Week 6. When at their best, the Bills are still among the top-3 programs in the NFL. One loss doesn’t change that. 

The Falcons are coming off a bye week, which is always a curious intangible this early in the season. In Week 4, we saw the good side of the Falcons, who were able to contain and stay ahead of the Commanders, although Washington fared well considering they started Marcus Mariota in Jayden Daniels’ absence (24 points, 291 yards). Somehow, the Falcons are the #1 defense in the NFL in total yards allowed (244), but there’s an asterisk attached to that data point due to their poor competition in the first 4 weeks. 

Offensively, the Falcons have played well in 3 out of 4 contests. In their last showing, a 34-point, 434-yard display against a good Commanders’ defense, we saw their best offensive form. Like many teams, Atlanta is at their apex when their rushing attack is successful. Through 4 weeks, they run more than 26 teams in the league (48.88%), and the duo of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier is as good as any in the NFL (136.5 yards per game, 6th). Buffalo’s defense is top-5 against opposing quarterbacks, allowing just 6.3 yards per pass and sacking the opposing quarterback on 8.9% of plays. But against the run they’ve had issues, ranking 30th in opponent yards per carry (5.6). Atlanta’s has a plus matchup offensively, off an extra week of rest. 

It’s hard not to love the Bills against anyone simply because they lost in Week 5. They’ve only lost 2 games in a row an average of 1 time each season for the past 3 years. Still, since we’re getting over the key number of 3 and the Falcons are off a bye, there’s no way I can’t like the Falcons.

Bills vs Falcons prediction: Falcons +4 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 3.

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In case the spread writeup didn’t clue you in, we like points in this contest. On the one hand, Atlanta has proven to be a proficient running team. After a slow start against Tampa, who has had a historically good run-defense for the past 5 seasons, Atlanta has run for 218 yards on Minnesota, 131 on Carolina and 128 on the Commanders. Considering their top-6 run-play usage, they should have plenty of success against a Bills defense that’s been one of the worst in the NFL (Buffalo allows 146.6 rush yards per game, 28th). This is good news for Michael Penix Jr., who can be shaky and will only make his 7th career NFL start on Sunday. Any quarterback benefits from a good run game when play-action can be used, and one hand has fed the other in their past 3 games.

The Falcons qualify as a very good defense, but mostly because they faced JJ McCarthy, Bryce Young and Marcus Mariota. Atlanta’s defense has improved this year, and it might even be legit, but even against mostly poor teams, they’ve allowed 21.5 points per game (15th). They’re not very good in the red zone either (25th, allowing a TD on 66.67% of possessions). This is also Josh Allen visiting, after a loss. Since Week 1, Allen hasn’t been that prolific, throwing for 148, 213, 209 and 253 the last 4 weeks. It’s been fine, just not particularly explosive, not like we’re used to from the former MVP and his array of talented receivers. This qualifies as a fantastic spot for positive regression, in a dome, in what will probably feel like a must-win to respond to Week 5’s debacle. We love both offenses on rocket ships early.

Bills vs Falcons best bet: Over 48.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 50.

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I continue my streak of teased down prime time SGP’s with my favorite prop bet in this game in Atlanta. The lines on player props are often inflated in my opinion, making it difficult to feel comfortable betting the over in certain situations. However, with a total at 49.5, it can be more difficult picking which player will likely fall short. The Buffalo offense is an enigma with Dalton Kincaid, Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir almost identical in targets through 5 weeks, and Kincaid had a non-contact jersey on in practice Saturday. This makes their offense a clear stay away from me.

On the Atlanta side, I see a big of an edge in the Bills porous red zone defense. In fact, the Bills have allowed the 3rd most red zone rushing TDs this season (5), and I’m taking Bijan in primetime despite Allgeier being just 4 red zone rush attempts behind him. With Penix only needing to clear 175 passing yards, I’m banking on his floor being pretty high on Monday. Penix’s completions line is set at 19.5 and when he’s completed 18+ passes in a game for his (short) career, the’s over this line in 5/6 games (83%). If Buffalo does manhandle Atlanta, this play is still very much alive.

Josh Allen has not been shy about spreading the ball around to his wide receiver and tight end rooms. Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir, and Dalton Kincaid headline the outside with 29, 29, and 24 targets, respectively. But when in the redzone, that’s where Kincaid has been a monster. He’s been targeted 5 times through 5 games, leading to 2 touchdowns scored. With a total of nearly 50 points, I feel comfortable backing one of the elite tight ends in the game at more than 2/1 on all major books.

I’m looking to take a shot in the dark for our 2nd Bills Falcons TD scorer – Casey Washington fits that build. With the news that Darnell Mooney will be sidelined for this highly anticipated matchup versus the Super Bowl favorite Bills, Washington steps into a role he’s not accustomed to. He’ll most likely play upwards of 50% of the snaps for the Falcons, and possibly more if they find themselves trailing out of the gate. That in itself is worth backing the former 6th round selection at +525 odds to find the endzone.

From our perspective, the most impressive win of Week 5 was by the Commanders. Last season, the Chargers never lost back-to-back games. Coming off a loss in Week 4, at home and up 10-0 early on Washington, another win seemed inevitable. Jayden Daniels had other plans.

In 2024, Daniels was the talk of the NFL, a quarterback who instantly turned around the DC franchise and had them competing in an NFC Championship game in his first season. Through the first 4 weeks, the Commanders haven’t been quite as consistent, partially because of Daniels’ knee sprain that held him out for 2 games. But Daniels’ return to the west coast, in his hometown of all places, was another reminder of how special he still is (270 total yards and a touchdown, no turnovers). The 2nd-year pro made one big play after another, all while wearing a knee brace. Even better, the Commanders’ defense was stout throughout the contest, holding the home-team Chargers to 0 points through the final 3 quarters. They also held the Chargers to their worst offensive performance of the season; just 18 first downs on 5.2 yards per play.

Back home, that sort of win can catalyze a Washington program that in weeks 1-4 didn’t seem to carry last year’s momentum into this season. They’ll need it against a Bears’ team that’s starting to find its stride.

Chicago is coming off a bye week. Leading into their bye, we were mostly impressed. Caleb Williams is taking care of the ball (8 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions) and the Bears’ offense is starting to find a rhythm, even if it relies on Caleb’s athletic ability to constantly avoid sacks and extend plays. 

It’s the Bears’ defense that’s worrisome. No team allows more explosive plays, they’ve permitted 29.3 points per game, and PFF ranks them in the bottom 5 in overall effectiveness. Their lack of a pass-rush (they’re 27th in sack rate) is especially an issue; Daniels is a master of his craft, even under duress – when he has time to create, he’s almost impossible to stop. Unless the Bears magically reinvent their resistance in 2 weeks, at home Daniels and the Commanders are back in top form and we think that’s too much for the visitors.

Bears vs Commanders prediction: Commanders -4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 5.5.

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In 5 games, the Commanders have scored 134 points (8th), and they did it against many above-average defenses: the Giants were out to kill in Week 1, the Packers and Chargers need no introduction, and the Falcons allowed fewer yards per game than any other team in the NFL. The Raiders don’t have a good defense, but you get our point.

In general, when Jayden Daniels is healthy, the Commanders have one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL. It also doesn’t hurt that they might’ve found a new breakout star last week, as rookie Jacory Crosky-Merritt ran 14 times for 111 yards (7.9 yards per carry) and 2 touchdowns against the Chargers. At home and with extended time to rest after a long trip across the country, we have a little doubt that Daniels and his colleagues will find plenty of production on Monday night. PS – Terry McLaurin is trending towards playing, too.

The real question is on the other side of the ball, where we give a slight edge to the Bears as well. The Commanders’ defense looked really good last week, and overall, they allow the 9th-fewest points in the NFL (20.2 per game), but they also permit plenty of yards (352 per game, 24th). Ben Johnson is an exceptional offensive mind and already we see a chance in Caleb Williams and the efficacy of their operation, perhaps best seen in their 11th-best rank in points per game (25.2). With 2 weeks to prepare, we imagine he’ll have a superb game plan to put up points on the road.

There’s a chance for light rain and it could be a little windy (17 mph predicted), but we don’t see much standing in the way of points in this affair.

Bears vs Commanders pick: Over 49.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 50.

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Washington will once again be without Terry McLaurin in Week 6 and I immediately thought how Deebo will have a huge role in this game for the skill position group. Many fantasy pundits are calling for Jacory Croskey-Merritt to have his best game of the season, but I’m more fascinated in how Deebo will be deployed Monday night. The Bears lead the league in rushing attempts per game for WR’s, which tells me it is something that coordinators are seeing on tape in the week of planning. League average is 1.00 per game with the Bears holding 1.75. While most man/zone coverage splits are roughly 3-1 in favor of zone these days, the Bears run man defense at an astounding 41% of plays, good for 2nd most in the league. This will favor Deebo who’s leading the team in man coverage targets and target rate with McLaurin out of the lineup and 30% of his overall targets are vs Man Coverage for 12.7 y/rec.