NFL Picks

It would be easy to expect the Ravens to blow out the Dolphins in this spot. After all, even without Lamar Jackson, the Ravens smoked the Bears in Week 8, in arguably their most impressive team performance of the season. Roaring back after the bye-week, Baltimore held Caleb Williams and the new-look Chicago offense to just 16 points and perhaps most importantly, only 96 rushing yards. It was a sign of the old Ravens’ defense, although they still permitted 372 yards and Chicago went 6-13 on third down conversions. A turnover, a missed field goal, and other mishaps contributed. The Ravens’ defense looked better, but we need more evidence that they’re getting closer to their old form. The Ravens’ offense looked back in its bag, sealing 24 first downs and 30 points in an assertive return from their bye-week. Harbaugh expects Lamar to play in Week 9, which is obviously a major boost for the Ravens’ offense. Arguably no single player adds more value, and now Baltimore can build off a clean performance from last week.

The Dolphins had (easily) their best showing of the season last Sunday. In one of the more mind-blowing results of Week 9, they dominated the Falcons 34-10 in Atlanta, out-gaining the home team 338-213. Of course, it was also a shocking performance by the Falcons, who previously played their best football in front of their fans. Kirk Cousins didn’t look ready for the bigger role, and Atlanta’s defense capitulated. For one week, Mike McDaniel saved his job in South Beach, and sometimes even a small win is enough to catalyze a team’s confidence. This is also a very assertive line for the Ravens, who have only played one solid game the last two months, with and without Lamar. It’s not an easy play in either direction, but the Ravens don’t deserve this designation just yet, especially on the road.

Ravens vs Dolphins prediction: Dolphins +7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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We’re not ready to trust the Ravens’ defense. Caleb Williams and the Bears’ offense made mistakes, but they still produced plenty. If Williams doesn’t throw an interception, the Bears may have taken the lead in the fourth quarter. After all, they had just completed an 11-play, 83-yard touchdown drive to start the final period, and momentum was shifting in their direction. 

The Dolphins’ offense hasn’t been quite as consistent, but last week they finally found a groove. They ran for 141 yards, more like the explosive operation of season’s past, and Tua Tagovailoa was smooth: 20-26, 205 yards, 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. Back home and with renewed energy, the Dolphins still have plenty of talent and speed to expose a Baltimore defense that’s allowed 30 points per game (30th). 

On the other side, the Ravens caught fire last week, gaining 177 rushing yards and visiting the red-zone six times (and converting for a touchdown on half). Lamar Jackson’s return is as significant an offensive boost as there can be for a single player. The former Louisville star needs no introduction, and he should be able to further stretch a Miami defense that’s been among one of the worst rushing defenses in the league all season (opponents average five yards per carry, 29th). One week against a shaky Kirk Cousins doesn’t make the Dolphins a better defense.

Miami is slated to be in the lower 80s and beautiful. This number isn’t high enough.

Ravens vs Dolphins best bet: Over 50.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 51.5.

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NFL media is all over the Washington Commanders right now. Fresh off the heels of an embarrassing showing on Monday Night Football where they lost 7-28 at Kansas City, injuries and concerns about their postseason chances are flooding news outlets. Last season Jayden Daniels was the popular new kid at school. He was flashy, calm, and unflappable even as a rookie in the postseason. But injuries, including multiple to Daniels this season, have started to derail hope.

Last week it got worse. They only managed to gain 260 total yards and 14 first downs, routinely failing to get into scoring range (they were 1-2 in the red-zone) and putting their defense on the field far too often (KC led time of possession 34-26). Even more problematic is their new slew of injuries: kicker Matt Gay has back issues, All-Pro lineman Laremy Tunsil left Monday with a hamstring problem, Terry McClaurin returned on Monday but reportedly felt uncertain about his quad issues following the contest, and at this juncture we’re still not sure if Daniels will play in Week 9. According to Dan Quinn, their enigmatic starting QB is expected to practice on Wednesday.

In short, this feels like an “all-in” type of game for the Commanders, who could fall to 3-7 if they lose their next two battles (vs. SEA, vs. DET). They’ll be the underdogs in each matchup, and they know they need to win now.

In complete contrast to their foe, Seattle is coming off their bye-week with seemingly no issues. Pro Football Focus ranks the Seahawks as the second-best program in the NFL, #2 on offense and #7 on defense. They have no notable injuries, with perennially banged up Devon Witherspoon and Julian Love trending in the right direction. Perhaps most impressive is their passing prowess, a catalyst to a surprising top-5 offense that brings a #1 ranked 9.0 yards per pass into the nation’s capitol on Sunday night. 

This is the time of year where desperate teams play much better. Judging by Quinn’s comments, it looks like Jayden Daniels will be in line to play on Sunday night. Most of Washington’s injured players are questionable and trending in the right direction, and they’re back in DC until December 7th, over a full month of hometown comforts to get right. In the back of our minds we still know what Daniels and the Commanders are capable of, and now their backs are against the wall. This is simply a spot to take the underdog, regardless of what the analytics suggest.

Seahawks vs Commanders best bet: Commanders +3.5 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to 3.

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The Seahawks are a hard team to figure out from a totals perspective. Right in line with the well-balanced product they put out on a weekly basis, through seven weeks of action they’re 4-3 to the over. Even in the games where they went over, it’s not like they faced a who’s-who of explosive offenses (PIT, NO, TB, HOU). But one thing is for sure: the Seattle offense is humming.

Sam Darnold has been incredibly consistent. The 2018 third overall pick might’ve found his long-term home, passing for 244.4 yards per game (8th) despite throwing the ball less than 30 other programs (they call pass plays just 50,37%, a 31st ranking). This has created an explosive operation that’s 3rd in yards (6.0) and 4th in points per play.

Unfortunately for the home team, that’s where their defense struggles most: allowing explosive plays. Washington ranks 29th in opponent yards per play (5.9) and struggles in the red-zone, too, permitting a touchdown on 64.29% of possessions inside the 20 (25th). 

The total will be decided when Washington has the ball, since it’s likely Seattle will score plenty. Seattle is a top-10 defense in most categories, including a 3rd-best mark in opponent yards per play (4.7), but as you’re probably gathering from all these statistics, the margins are small. A healthy Jayden Daniels means the Commanders are capable of feats like we saw in Week 5, when virtually no one predicted they would waltz into Los Angeles and dominate the Chargers, a game where they put up 27 and gained 7.1 yards per play.

Daniels changes the Commanders’ entire ceiling. Combine that with the desperate nature of their current situation and it’s a recipe that strongly suggests we’ll see more production than usual.

Seahawks vs Commanders prediction: Over 46.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 47.

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