NFL Picks

Once the clear leaders of the NFC South, the Falcons and Bucs are both reeling after another bad performance. In Atlanta’s case it’s par for the course, a program lost at this point of the season. Coach Raheem Morris seems to have no true influence over his roster, either. Over the past eight weeks their only win was against the Saints, a fellow NFC South bottom feeder, and even in that matchup they were out-gained 21-13 in first downs. Kirk Cousins looked especially bad in Week 14, completing just 15-30 for 162 yards and two interceptions. The defense continues to regress as well, allowing the Seahawks to put up 31 points in the second half last Sunday. In short, there’s no good reason to trust Atlanta right now, even if the team they’re facing next is going through their own share of problems.

The Bucs dominated survivor entries and teaser-legs all over the country in Week 14 in what seemed to be an auto-play for many bettors. That didn’t go so well. The Saints showed up to compete, putting up 17 points en-route to victory in southern Florida. Baker Mayfield played as poorly as Kirk Cousins last Sunday, going 14-30 for 122 yards (4.1 yards per pass), one touchdown and one interception. The Bucs’ defense, which now ranks 14th in total EPA, eventually capitulated, but their offense is far more disappointing. Decimated by injuries, the Bucs’ offense sunk to 22nd in total EPA metrics, a sad measure considering they looked like one of the most explosive offenses early in the season. 

The good news for Tampa is that they’re getting healthier. Their best offensive lineman, Tristan Wirfs, sat out last Sunday but is trending towards suiting up on Thursday. Even better, their star wide-receiver, Mike Evans, has logged four straight practices and looks to return after missing seven weeks of action. Even without those two stalwarts, the Bucs need this win to further cement their lead in the NFC South. The Falcons are showing no signs of progression, nor do they have much to play for.

Falcons vs Buccaneers TNF prediction: Bucs -4 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 5.

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The Bucs’ offense isn’t what it used to be at the start of the season but that doesn’t mean it can’t improve again. Thursday is also a good spot for positive regression. Atlanta’s defense has been spiraling for quite some time. Since Week 8 they’ve allowed 28 points per game. Four out of those seven opponents hit or eclipsed 30 points. Mike Evans is trending towards playing on Thursday, but even if he doesn’t the Falcons are officially 26th in defensive EPA per rush, permitting 4.5 yards per carry (24th). Bucky Irving has played well but has yet to make a big splash since his return in Week 13. We think this is the ideal opportunity. Baker will look to correct his transgressions from last week, too (4.4 yards per play). We expect a much better showing from the whole offense. 

On the other side, the Falcons’ defense looked lost in Week 14 and has looked lost for weeks, but the Falcons’ offense still shows flashes of its talent here and there. Kirk Cousins had one of his worst outings as a professional quarterback in Week 14. It’s likely this could be his final stretch of games as a starter in the league. If I’m Kirk and I’m battling a Bucs’ defense that hasn’t played well (Tampa is 20th in defensive EPA per pass), I’m excited to take advantage of this matchup. And it’s not like Atlanta hasn’t done well against the Bucs before. Back in Week 1, they totaled 358 yards and 23 first downs on Todd Bowles’ defense, a battle they should have won.

Both offenses are due for a better day, particularly the Bucs. On a short week and both rosters battered at this point of the season, we like both offenses to rule the day.

Falcons vs Bucs pick: Over 44.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 45.

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The mystical JJ McCarthy experience continues. In Week 14 it was the good kind. Needless to say, NFL media and Vikings’ fans were losing trust in Kevin O’Connell before last Sunday, the guy who orchestrated Sam Darnold’s departure and put his stock in the former Michigan star. Many are still very skeptical, including yours truly. JJ McCarthy had enough good moments in his initial few starts to suggest maybe there’s something there, including a sterling fourth quarter comeback against the Bears in Week 1. But until last week most of his performances were of the bad kind, reminiscent of a kid whose confidence may have overshot reality. Last week the good version returned for at least one game, even if the rookie got a lot of help from his teammates. Minnesota jumped out to a 14-0 lead after their first two drives. The second drive was a brilliantly executed, 12 minute, 98-yard showcase of O’Connell’s ability to design the perfect offense for any quarterback. But the Vikings only gained 42 yards for the next two quarters following. In garbage time eventually capitalized on a few advantageous short fields. While we were mildly impressed by McCarthy in Week 14 (16-23, 163 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions), it doesn’t mean their offense is suddenly “figured out” again, nor do we trust the rookie to perform consistently at that level. 

Minnesota’s defense is less of a concern, 9th overall in total in defensive EPA and most weeks keeping their team in the game. They’ll need to be one of the best this Sunday.

The Dallas offense tripped up this past Thursday against the Lions, but we’re not going to fade the Cowboys because of one game. Week 14 was more about their opponent, a desperate team at home who rode momentum once they found it. Dallas’ offense still had its chances, and Detroit struggled limiting their production throughout the contest (417 total yards, 25 first downs, both out-pacing Detroit). Regardless, Dallas retains a top unit (7th in EPA per pass, 1st in yards per game). They’ll battle a top-tier defense on the other side, but the Cowboys’ consistent, exceptional play along their front (fourth overall in sacks allowed, 12th in yards per carry) can create a formidable challenge for the Vikings’ pass-rush (4th in sack percentage). 

On the other side, Dallas’ defense showed notable improvement in Weeks 12 and 13 but took a step back at Detroit, although even great defenses have had similar moments at Ford Field. Overall we still see an improving group, but McCarthy has another opportunity to look his best against a Dallas-defense that’s mostly been abysmal all season (30th in EPA per pass). We wanted to find ways to justify a bet on the Cowboys, but the Vikings are never dead with O’Connell steering the ship. And frankly, our power ratings don’t score these teams as grossly disparate.

Vikings vs Cowboys SNF prediction: Vikings +5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.5.

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This total is slightly above average, but not as high as many would have projected earlier in the season. Psychologically it’s very interesting. For some reason the market inherently trusts Kevin O’Connell, even if the larger sample size suggests we shouldn’t. We realize they had one game with Max Brosmer as their starter. Still, Minnesota ranks 30th overall in EPA per pass, a metric that McCarthy affected far more than his colleagues. Well, except Brosmer. They also score just 19.6 points per game. Their ground attack has been formidable at times but they don’t run the ball enough (27th in rush play percentage, 40.05%). The Cowboys will remain far below average defensively but they’re not being served some juggernaut, either.

Minnesota’s defense may be the most consistent of any unit. We’ve had our critiques of Brian Flores, who has moments that have us scratching our heads. Top coordinators and quarterbacks can navigate the puzzles he creates, but the truth is most fall victim. Flores is extremely creative in his schemes and blitzes more than any coach in the league (48%). While Dallas has been proficient at protecting Dak Prescott, there is nothing easy about this matchup. No matter which way you pitch it, 47.5 points is still a ton. For both teams, playoff hopes are on the line. We completely understand why markets think this could turn into a showcase of scoring, but from where we’re sitting a defensive battle is just as likely. We project this to end around 44, so we have no other choice.

Vikings vs Cowboys SNF pick: Under 47.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 46.5.

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