NFL Picks

NFL picks for every game of the 2025-26 season. Our NFL expert picks are informed by key betting trends, statistical analysis and years of NFL betting experience. +27.4 units of profit, from 113 winning ATS picks so far this season is the proof.

Our NFL picks this week include against the spread picks for every game in week 15, highlighted by an all-NFC South Thursday Night Football when the Falcons take on the Buccaneers. Sunday Night Football will see the Vikings travel to Dallas to face the Cowboys and on Monday Night Football it’s Dolphins vs Steelers.

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8:15 PM ET

Today

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Falcons

Buccaneers

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Point Spread Pick

TB Buccaneers -4.0(-110)

Reasoning

Once the clear leaders of the NFC South, the Falcons and Bucs are both reeling after another bad performance. In Atlanta’s case it’s par for the course, a program lost at this point of the season. Coach Raheem Morris seems to have no true influence over his roster, either. Over the past eight weeks their only win was against the Saints, a fellow NFC South bottom feeder, and even in that matchup they were out-gained 21-13 in first downs. Kirk Cousins looked especially bad in Week 14, completing just 15-30 for 162 yards and two interceptions. The defense continues to regress as well, allowing the Seahawks to put up 31 points in the second half last Sunday. In short, there’s no good reason to trust Atlanta right now, even if the team they’re facing next is going through their own share of problems.

The Bucs dominated survivor entries and teaser-legs all over the country in Week 14 in what seemed to be an auto-play for many bettors. That didn’t go so well. The Saints showed up to compete, putting up 17 points en-route to victory in southern Florida. Baker Mayfield played as poorly as Kirk Cousins last Sunday, going 14-30 for 122 yards (4.1 yards per pass), one touchdown and one interception. The Bucs’ defense, which now ranks 14th in total EPA, eventually capitulated, but their offense is far more disappointing. Decimated by injuries, the Bucs’ offense sunk to 22nd in total EPA metrics, a sad measure considering they looked like one of the most explosive offenses early in the season.

The good news for Tampa is that they’re getting healthier. Their best offensive lineman, Tristan Wirfs, sat out last Sunday but is trending towards suiting up on Thursday. Even better, their star wide-receiver, Mike Evans, has logged four straight practices and looks to return after missing seven weeks of action. Even without those two stalwarts, the Bucs need this win to further cement their lead in the NFC South. The Falcons are showing no signs of progression, nor do they have much to play for.

Falcons vs Buccaneers TNF prediction: Bucs -4 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 5.

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Game Totals Pick

Over 44.5(-110)

Reasoning

The Bucs’ offense isn’t what it used to be at the start of the season but that doesn’t mean it can’t improve again. Thursday is also a good spot for positive regression. Atlanta’s defense has been spiraling for quite some time. Since Week 8 they’ve allowed 28 points per game. Four out of those seven opponents hit or eclipsed 30 points. Mike Evans is trending towards playing on Thursday, but even if he doesn’t the Falcons are officially 26th in defensive EPA per rush, permitting 4.5 yards per carry (24th). Bucky Irving has played well but has yet to make a big splash since his return in Week 13. We think this is the ideal opportunity. Baker will look to correct his transgressions from last week, too (4.4 yards per play). We expect a much better showing from the whole offense.

On the other side, the Falcons’ defense looked lost in Week 14 and has looked lost for weeks, but the Falcons’ offense still shows flashes of its talent here and there. Kirk Cousins had one of his worst outings as a professional quarterback in Week 14. It’s likely this could be his final stretch of games as a starter in the league. If I’m Kirk and I’m battling a Bucs’ defense that hasn’t played well (Tampa is 20th in defensive EPA per pass), I’m excited to take advantage of this matchup. And it’s not like Atlanta hasn’t done well against the Bucs before. Back in Week 1, they totaled 358 yards and 23 first downs on Todd Bowles’ defense, a battle they should have won.

Both offenses are due for a better day, particularly the Bucs. On a short week and both rosters battered at this point of the season, we like both offenses to rule the day.

Falcons vs Bucs pick: Over 44.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 45.

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Chris R. Farley

Player Receptions Pick

C. Godwin (TB) - Over 3.5 recs(-112)

Reasoning

There is a lot of hype about Mike Evans returning this week to secure a playoff spot for Tampa Bay after their recent struggles, and that’s kept this line down at a tantalizing 3.5 for one of the best slot receivers in the NFL. Chris Godwin returned 3 weeks ago from injury and he’s seen his snap counts return to 69%, growing week over week. In the last 2 games where he’s seen 66% of snaps, he’s had 5 and 8 targets. He has just 2 drops on 30 targets this season and 12 of those targets were in the middle of the field, which is where the Falcons blitz can create a funnel in the middle of the field for Godwin to exploit.

I do not see the return of Evans and Jalen McMillan as eating into Godwin’s snaps, but rather less attention given to Godwin from opposing secondaries, allowing him to find soft spots in their zone (8th-most zone coverage in the NFL). I would go as high as 6+ receptions if I was laddering up for alt-line action, but Godwin should easily be able to get 4 catches tonight.

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Bobby Stanley Jr. (PropHolliday)

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick

K. Pitts (ATL) to score a TD(+240)

Reasoning

There are question marks on both offenses heading into Thursday’s contest. For the visitors, the Falcons will be without their top pass-catcher, Drake London, while Kyle Pitts has a questionable tag due to a knee injury. However, we’re going to roll the dice with Pitts suiting up and finding the end zone in Tampa Bay. Since Kirk Cousins took over from the injured Michael Penix Jr., Pitts has shone as the most targeted player on the Falcons by 16 targets and 12 receptions. His receptions line is set at 5.5, which is an indication that Cousins will be looking his way in what is likely a trailing game script. All that gives Pitts great value to score a touchdown at +240.

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Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick

C. Godwin (TB) to score a TD(+235)

Reasoning

The Buccaneers, led by Baker Mayfield, have regressed over the last month, with 4 losses and 1 win since their Week 9 bye. But reinforcements are coming with Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan being activated from the injured reserve. Still, we’re going to back Chris Godwin, who has seen his snap share and usage increase over the last 3 weeks. He’ll likely play upwards of 75% of the offensive snaps for the Bucs after a team-leading 27% target share last week. With that in mind, there’s a bit of value on Godwin to find the end zone on TNF.

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Justin Martin (JutPicks)

Same Game Parlay

Point Spread

TB Buccaneers -4.5

Game Totals

Over 43.5

Player Receiving Yards

B. Irving (TB) - Over 20.5 rec yds

Reasoning

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4.5 over Atlanta Falcons (-105)

For the first leg of our Falcons vs Buccaneers Same Game Parlay, we’re going to be backing the home team laying the points. Tampa Bay has been quite poor in recent weeks, as the Bucs have dropped 4 of their last 5 games. Despite the fact that Todd Bowles’ team appears to be in the midst of a massive slide, this presents the Buccaneers with a nice bounce-back spot in a game where Tampa Bay should finally have the likes of Mike Evans and Tristan Wirfs back in the lineup.

It goes without saying that this should be the healthiest the Bucs offense has been in some time, and that should put them in position to succeed against a Falcons defense that is on the decline of late. I can only look toward the hosts on TNF.

Over 43.5 (-125)

This is an instance where I’m bullish on a higher-scoring game than what the market is expecting. On one side, the Buccaneers offense isn’t what it was earlier in the season, but Tampa Bay has a pretty favorable matchup on Thursday against an Atlanta defense that has been trending downward in recent weeks. In fact, the Falcons have surrendered 28 points per game over the last 7 weeks, and Atlanta has allowed 30 or more points in 4 of those contests.

On the other side, the Falcons offense has shown flashes of life with Kirk Cousins back at the helm in recent weeks, and Tampa Bay’s defense (20th in EPA per pass) just struggled against Tyler Shough and the anemic Saints offense a week ago. With that in mind, let’s roll with the over on TNF.

Bucky Irving over 20.5 receiving yards (-114)

Bucky Irving has dealt with a ton of injuries in his 2nd season in the NFL, and while the Buccaneers’ running back has struggled on the ground in his 6 games this season, he’s been very active in the passing game out of the backfield. Irving shouldn’t get as much of a workload on the ground given that this game is taking place on a short week and Rachaad White should split the carries in this matchup.

The Oregon product has been a consistent target for Mayfield in the passing game, with Irving racking up 23 receptions in his 6 games played this season to go along with 240 receiving yards. Irving has cleared this number in each of his last 5 games played, so let’s go back to that well on Thursday Night Football.

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1:00 PM ET

Sun Dec 14

FOX

Cardinals

Texans

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Point Spread Pick

HOU Texans -9.5(-110)

Reasoning

The Houston Texans will be trying to extend their winning streak to 6 games when they host the Arizona Cardinals in Week 15 of the NFL season on Sunday afternoon. Only the Patriots (10) have won more consecutive contests than the Texans. I expect that trend to continue, so my Cardinals vs Texans pick is for the home team to win and cover. Head coach DeMeco Ryans’ red-hot squad boasts an 8-5 record and has moved into AFC wild-card position — and in second place in the AFC South — ahead of Indianapolis. Houston’s defense is arguably the best in the entire league. The Texans are #1 in total defense, #1 in scoring defense, #4 against the pass and #5 against the run. Four straight opponents have stayed under 20 points, including the Bills, Colts and Chiefs.

Arizona, on the other hand, is a team in turmoil. It is 3-10 and has lost 5 games in a row. Quarterback Kyler Murray (foot) has not played since Week 5 and won’t play again this year — and probably not ever for this particular franchise. Jacoby Brissett has been solid in Murray’s absence, but this offense just isn’t dynamic. And when you are facing Houston, your offense better be electric if you want to have even a remote chance of success. On the other side of the ball, the Cardinals’ defense is 26th in scoring (26.8 ppg allowed) and their 24 sacks are among the worst in the NFL. The Cards are 1-4 against the spread in in their last 5 overall, while the Texans are 3-0 ATS in its last 3, 4-1 ATS in its last 5 on the road and 2-0 ATS in the last two head-to-head meetings.

Arizona Cardinals vs Houston Texans prediction: Texans -9.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -10.

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Game Totals PickBest Bet

Under 42.5(-108)

Reasoning

It’s hard to even describe just how good the Texans’ defense is. Perhaps the most telling way to say it is that the unit is so good that you might actually tune into a football game for the purpose of watching defense instead of offense. Yes, the Texans’ defense is legitimately fun to watch — and it is the main reason why my Cardinals vs Texans pick is Under 42.5. They have recorded 36 sacks and have forced 22 turnovers (fourth most in the league). Moreover, the offense has committed the third-fewest turnovers in the NFL (10) — so it rarely puts the defense in bad situations. Speaking of the offense, quarterback C.J. Stroud has been solid but unspectacular in 2 starts since missing 3 games with concussion. In those 2 appearances he went a combined 37-of-66 for 479 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT.

Meanwhile, Brissett is playing well for the Cardinals but is not getting much help at all from the running game. And no matter what Brissett brings to the table on Sunday, it’s hard to like any offense’s chances against Houston at the moment. Will Anderson Jr., Danielle Hunter and others are probably going to wreak havoc in the backfield. I’m not even entirely positive that Arizona will avoid getting shut out. The under is 4-0 in the Texans’ last four overall and 2-0 in the last two head-to-head encounters.

Arizona Cardinals vs Houston Texans prediction: Under 42.5 (-108) available at time of publishing. Playable to -40.5.

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Ricky Dimon

1:00 PM ET

Sun Dec 14

CBS

Bills

Patriots

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Point Spread Pick

BUF Bills -1.0(-110)

Reasoning

The Bills (9-4) have an outside shot of winning the AFC East for a sixth straight season, but need to beat the Patriots (11-2) at Gillette Stadium on Sunday to keep hope alive. Buffalo lost the first matchup with New England at home in Week 5, falling on a last-minute field goal in a 23-20 defeat as eight-point favorites. That was the second victory as part of their current 10-game winning streak, as New England won a total of eight games the previous two seasons.

Buffalo has won three of its past four games since a shocking loss at Miami in Week 10. The Bills rallied past the Bengals in the snow last Sunday, 39-34, scoring three touchdowns in the fourth quarter. QB Josh Allen threw three touchdown passes and scampered for a 40-yard TD run in the win, as the Bills are putting themselves in a solid spot as a Wild Card team if they can’t leap-frog the Patriots. Buffalo failed to cover as 6.5-point favorites, falling to 6-7 against the spread.

The Patriots are coming off the bye week after crushing the short-handed Giants at home, 33-15 as 7.5-point favorites, ending a two-game ATS slide. QB Drake Maye went from a questionable selection with the third pick last season to the odds-on MVP favorite in one season. Maye is second in the league in passing yards (3,412), third in TD passes (23), including nine games with multiple TD passes. In the first meeting with Buffalo, the former UNC standout was held without a TD toss for the only time in 13 games this season.

Seven of New England’s last eight wins have come against teams with losing records and the only victory is against Tampa Bay, who is 7-6. Buffalo is listed as a short favorite and has been susceptible to stubbing its toe this season off a big win. However, it’s tough to pass on them in this revenge spot, even against this red-hot New England squad.

Bills vs Patriots prediction: Bills -1 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 2.

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Game Totals Pick

Under 49.5(-110)

Reasoning

Both these teams have not posted convincing numbers in the Over-Under category. Buffalo is 7-6 to the Under, while New England is 7-6 to the Over, as both teams are coming off an Over in their last game. The Bills cashed the Over of 54.5 in last Sunday’s 39-34 victory over the Bengals, snapping a two-game Under streak. The Patriots also ended a two-game Under stretch with their 33-15 win over the Giants before the bye week, barely eclipsing the total of 46.5.

Buffalo owns an impressive 5-1 Under mark in six road games, as the lone Over came on a 48.5 total in a 40-9 rout of Carolina in Week 8. The Bills have been inconsistent from a scoring standpoint away from Highmark Stadium, scoring 19 points or less three times, while posting 26 or more points three times. From 2021-23, the Bills averaged 27.3 ppg in three games at Gillette Stadium with Josh Allen starting for Buffalo (he sat out last season’s finale).

New England has topped the 24-point mark in eight consecutive games, including three performances of at least 30 points. However, the Bills limited the Patriots to 23 points in the Week 5 home loss, the third-fewest points that New England has scored this season. Since finishing Under the total in their first two home losses to Las Vegas and Pittsburgh, the Pats have hit the Over in four of the past five games at Gillette Stadium. This is one of the tougher games to pick from the total perspective since each team has such different total records in the home-road splits. However, we’re going to look at a low-scoring game due to Buffalo’s inconsistency off a win and grab the Under.

Bills vs Patriots pick: Under 49.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Kevin Rogers

1:00 PM ET

Sun Dec 14

FOX

Browns

Bears

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Point Spread Pick

CLE Browns +7.5(-110)

Reasoning

How tight is the NFC? With just a single loss in Week 14, the Chicago Bears slipped from the #1 seed in the conference all the way down to the seventh and final playoff spot. They will try to get back on the winning track when they host the Cleveland Browns in Week 15 of the NFL season on Sunday afternoon. Chicago should be able to accomplish that feat, but covering a spread of more than a touchdown could be a different story. My Browns vs Bears pick is the visitors against the spread. In its last 7 games, head coach Ben Johnson’s squad has won by more than 5 points only once — even though this stretch includes opponents such as the Bengals, Vikings, Giants and the reeling Ravens.

Cleveland is obviously nothing special, either, but it could also be competitive. Since their Week 9 bye (a span of 5 games), the Browns have lost by more than a touchdown just once. Their defense always has a chance to keep them in games and now they are even getting decent quarterback play. Shedeur Sanders delivered his best performance as a professional last weekend against Tennessee, throwing for 364 yards and 3 touchdowns while getting picked off once. Sanders may be an inconsistent rookie, but he makes this offense far more dynamic than it was when guys like Joe Flacco and Dillon Gabriel were running the show earlier this season. Give me Sanders and company to cover…maybe just by the hook.

Cleveland Browns vs Chicago Bears prediction: Browns +7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Game Totals Pick

Under 39.5(-105)

Reasoning

Cleveland obviously has a better chance to cover if this battle results in a defensive struggle, because the visitors probably can’t keep up if it’s some kind of shootout. But a relative rock fight is exactly what this matchup should be, so my Browns vs Bears pick is Under 39.5 — which correlates nicely with Browns +7.5. I just don’t see Chicago scoring enough to cover — at least not in these conditions. It will be absolutely freezing (and windy, as usual) on Sunday, with a current high of 12 degrees. Snow is currently in the Saturday forecast, so the weather could get even trickier if the forecasters are off by more than a few hours or so. Regardless, passing — and kicking, for that matter — won’t be an easy task this weekend.

Whatever the case, Cleveland is defensive-minded even in ideal conditions. The Browns are #2 in the NFL in total defense, #1 against the pass and #2 in sacks. Myles Garrett has already recorded a ridiculous 20 sacks by himself this season — no other player in the league has more than 13. For comparison, 3 teams don’t even have 20 total sacks. Although the Bears’ offense is better than the defense, they are a run-heavy team — and certainly will be on Sunday against Cleveland. They may go on some scoring drives, but those will likely be run-heavy slogs that burn the clock.

Cleveland Browns vs Chicago Bears prediction: Under 39.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Ricky Dimon

1:00 PM ET

Sun Dec 14

FOX

Raiders

Eagles

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Point Spread Pick

LV Raiders +11.5(-110)

Reasoning

The Philadelphia Eagles will be eager to halt a 3-game losing streak when they entertain the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 15 of the NFL season on Sunday afternoon. Why are the Eagles playing so poorly and showing the same signs as their second-half demise in 2023? Well, their offense is horrible right now. Since its Week 9 bye, head coach Nick Sirianni’s squad has posted 10, 16, 21, 15 and 19 points in its last 5 outings. Saquon Barkley finally heated up with 122 yards and a touchdown in Monday night’s 22-19 overtime loss to Chargers, but 52 of those yards — and the TD — came thanks to blatant hold by left tackle Jordan Mailata. Barkley now faces a Las Vegas defense that does 1 thing well: stop the run. The Raiders are holding opponents to 113.9 rushing yards per contest on 3.9 yards per carry (fifth fewest in the NFL).

Admittedly, there is not a whole lot of good to say about a 2-11 Las Vegas squad. To be exact, there are 2 bright spots on the roster. Tight end Brock Bowers comes in with 619 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns. Defensive end Maxx Crosby has 9 sacks, 25 tackles for loss, 1 interception and 2 forced fumbles. Philly is 0-3 ATS in its last 3 overall and 1-3 ATS in the last 4 head-to-head meetings. This is slightly too big of a spread for a matchup between 2 reeling offenses that could be low scoring.

Las Vegas Raiders vs Philadelphia Eagles prediction: Las Vegas +11.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Game Totals Pick

Under 38.5(-110)

Reasoning

Outside of Bowers, there is literally nothing about the Raiders’ offense that inspires any confidence — not even rookie running back Ashton Jeanty, a first-round draft pick. In fact, Las Vegas is dead last in the NFL in rushing offense by a country mile (72.7 yards per contest). Its 3.4 yards per carry are also worst in the league. Head coach Pete Carroll’s crew is last in the league in scoring (15.1 ppg) and second-to-last in total offense (257.2 yards per game). Quarterback Geno Smith has struggled all year to the tune of having almost as many INTs (14) as TDs (16). Smith is questionable for this weekend due to a shoulder injury sustained during last Sunday’s setback against Denver. Largely because of this offense, my Raiders vs Eagles pick is Under 38.5.

Of course, Philly should also contribute to a low-scoring affair. Its offense has been shockingly inept over the past 5 weeks. Jalen Hurts’ struggles actually got worse in Week 14 — and that’s an understatement. The Alabama product committed an absurd 5 turnovers against the Chargers, including 2 on 1 play alone! That’s right; he threw a pick, recovered an ensuing fumble and then fumbled it back to the Bolts. Hurts’ fourth interception of the night in overtime ended the game in unceremonious but appropriate fashion. The under is 3-1 in the Raiders’ last 4 road games and 5-0 in the Eagles’ last 5 overall. It’s a lean toward the under for me.

Las Vegas Raiders vs Philadelphia Eagles prediction: Under 38.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Ricky Dimon

4:25 PM ET

Sun Dec 14

FOX

Panthers

Saints

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Point Spread PickBest Bet

CAR Panthers -2.5(-115)

Reasoning

It will be a showdown in the NFC South when the Carolina Panthers visit the New Orleans Saints on Sunday afternoon. New Orleans did Carolina a solid by upsetting division-rival Tampa Bay in Week 14, but the Panthers won’t return the favor by playing nice this weekend. After all, they are now in the thick of a division race. The door is open for the Panthers and — at least for the time being — I expect them to walk through it. My Panthers vs Saints pick is for the visitors to win and cover. This is a fantastic spot for the visitors. Carolina is coming off a bye and facing an opponent that just picked up its biggest win of the season, thus inflating its value.

The Saints are very bad — way worse than this 2.5-point spread indicates. Their season-long sample size confirms that this is a far inferior team compared to what was on display at Tampa Bay this past weekend. The Bucs really aren’t that good, either. In fact, they have been in shambles since a hot start to the 2025 campaign — their record since a Week 9 bye is 1-4. The Saints gained only 260 yards of total offense but still managed to prevail 24-20. Now they return to the Big Easy, but their is no home-field advantage for them these days. They are 1-5 at the Mercedes-Benz Dome this season compared to 2-5 on the road. Meanwhile, the Panthers are 6-3 SU in their last 9 overall and find themselves tied atop the NFC South with the Bucs. Carolina most recently stunned the Rams in Week 13 as Bryce Young continued to heat up. Young has thrown at least 3 touchdown passes in 4 games so far in 2025.

Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints prediction: Panthers -2.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -3.

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Game Totals Pick

Under 40.5(-110)

Reasoning

Only 24 total points were scored in the first head-to-head matchup of this 2025 campaign. Now we’re asking Carolina and New Orleans to combine for at least 41?!?! It’s a no from me. My Panthers vs Saints pick is Under 40.5. The Saints have played 13 games this season; only 3 times have they reached the 20-point mark — and in those 3 exceptions their outputs were 21, 24 and 26 points. Despite prevailing at Tampa Bay 24-40 this past weekend, New Orleans’ offense amassed a grand total of 260 yards. Running back Alvin Kamara is a shadow of his former self and is questionable for Sunday due to a knee injury.

Somewhat surprisingly, neither defense is terrible. Carolina’s is arguably above average, while New Orleans is at least quite good against the pass — #6 in the NFL in that department. The Panthers are tied for 10th in the league with 17 takeaways and the Saints have committed the third-most turnovers with 20. It’s just hard to see this matchup developing into a high-scoring or even medium-scoring affair. Something along the lines of their first head-to-head encounter is far more likely.

Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints prediction: Under 40.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 39.5.

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Ricky Dimon

4:25 PM ET

Sun Dec 14

FOX

Lions

Rams

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Point Spread PickBest Bet

LA Rams -6.0(-110)

Reasoning

The top seed in the NFC is up for grabs heading into the final four weeks of the season. The Rams and Seahawks are tied atop the NFC West at 10-3 as the two squads meet next Thursday in Seattle. However, Los Angeles needs to take care of Detroit on Sunday at SoFi Stadium as the Lions are fighting for their playoff lives at 8-5. Detroit has alternated wins and losses in each of the past nine games, coming off the 44-30 home triumph over Dallas last Thursday.

The Lions finished as the top NFC seed last season at 15-2, but were one and done in the playoffs after losing to the Commanders in the divisional round. Detroit hasn’t been able to find consistency since posting a four-game winning streak following its opening week loss at Green Bay. Dan Campbell’s team is 3-3 away from Ford Field, which includes a 1-3 ATS mark as a road underdog. The Lions are averaging 18.5 ppg in the last four games off a victory, compared to 36.3 ppg in their first three games off a win.

The Rams bounced back from a shocking loss at Carolina two weeks ago to rout the banged-up Cardinals, 45-17 as 9.5-point road favorites. QB Matthew Stafford rebounded from a rough performance against the Panthers by throwing 3 TD passes and no interceptions. The Rams are back at SoFi Stadium, where they own a 5-1 record with the lone loss coming in overtime to the 49ers in Week 5. Los Angeles is looking to avenge a pair of defeats at Detroit the last two seasons, including in the 2023 Wild Card round, 24-23. Seeing Detroit’s inconsistency the last two months, let’s lay the points with the Rams here to take care of business at home.

Lions vs Rams best bet: Rams -6 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 6.5.

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Game Totals Pick

Under 55.0(-110)

Reasoning

The Lions rank first in the league in scoring at 30.3 ppg, while the Rams sit fourth at 29.2 ppg, so the expectation is this will be an up-and-down affair in Los Angeles. However, the Rams are 6-6-1 to the Over, while the Lions are 8-5 to the Over. L.A. went through a 4-1-1 run to the Under from mid-October through late November before cashing in a pair of Overs the last two weeks. The Rams scored 28 points in a loss at Carolina before racking up a season-high 45 points in last Sunday’s rout of Arizona.

The Lions bounced back from a Thanksgiving Day loss to Green Bay by putting up 44 points on Dallas last Thursday. Detroit posted at least 44 points for the third time this season, along with a 44-point output at Washington and a 52-point barrage against Chicago in Week 2. In two of the past three road games, the Lions have been limited to 17 or fewer points, including a season-low 9 points at Philadelphia in Week 11.

Each of the last two matchups between the Rams and Lions have seen the Under cash. Detroit edged L.A. in the 2023 Wild Card round, 24-23 on a 53 total, while the Lions knocked off the Rams in overtime early last season, 26-20 on a 53.5 total. Sunday’s total at SoFi Stadium is up to 55, which is the highest of the season for the Rams. Detroit is 3-2 to the Over on totals above 50, while going 1-1 to the Over on the road. The Rams are 4-1-1 to the Under at home as the lone Over against San Francisco would have remained Under if not for a last-second game-tying field goal to force overtime.

This feels like a heavy total even though these teams have the capability to go score plenty of points. In this battle of two former top picks facing their old teams in Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff, let’s look at the Under in this much anticipated battle in southern California.

Lions vs Rams pick: Under 55 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 54.5.

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Kevin Rogers

4:25 PM ET

Sun Dec 14

CBS

Packers

Broncos

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Point Spread Pick

GB Packers -2.0(-110)

Reasoning

A pair of division leaders hook up in Denver on Sunday in a critical matchup for each team. The Packers (9-3-1) jumped the Bears for first place in the NFC North following last Sunday’s 28-21 home victory. Green Bay is riding a four-game winning streak since losing consecutive games at home to Carolina and Philadelphia last month. The Pack faces a Broncos (11-2) team that leads the AFC West by two games over the Chargers. Denver took care of Las Vegas last Sunday, 24-17, but failed to cover the spread for the third time in the last four games.

The Broncos return home where they own a perfect 6-0 mark and have won 11 consecutive games at Empower Field at Mile High since October 2024. Sean Payton’s squad is 3-0-1 against the spread and 3-1 straight-up in four games in the underdog role this season. The most recent instance came in the 22-19 triumph over the Chiefs in Week 11 as 4.5-point home dogs. Denver has given up 20 or fewer points in regulation in five straight games, while sitting third in the league in yards allowed per game at 282.

Both teams are 5-7-1 ATS this season, as Green Bay is 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine games in the favorite role. Since blowing a late 10-0 lead in a 13-10 defeat at Cleveland in Week 3, the Packers are 4-0-1 on the road in the past five games away from Lambeau Field. Denver has won eight consecutive one-score games since losing in the final seconds to the Chargers in Week 3. It’s hard to ignore Denver’s resurgence at home the last few seasons, but there is definitely a reason the Broncos are listed as underdogs here in spite of being tied with the Patriots for the best record in the AFC. Let’s lay the short number with the Pack here against the upstart Broncos.

Packers vs Broncos prediction: Packers -2 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 2.5.

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Game Totals Pick

Over 42.5(-110)

Reasoning

Green Bay owns a very interesting home-road split from the total perspective. The Packers hit the Over for the first time in seven home games this season in last Sunday’s win against the Bears. On the road, Green Bay is 5-1 to the Over, while riding a 5-0 streak since finishing Under the total in the Week 3 loss at Cleveland. The Packers are averaging 32 ppg in the past five road games, compared to 17.7 ppg in their last four home outings.

Now the Pack heads west to face the Broncos, who possess one of the top defenses in the league. Denver is 8-5 to the Under in 2025, including a 4-2 mark at home. The two outliers came in back-to-back victories over the Giants and Cowboys in Weeks 7 and 8. Denver pulled off the comeback of the season with 33 points in the fourth quarter after getting shut out in the first three quarters of the thrilling 33-30 triumph over New York. The next week, the Broncos dropped a season-best 44 points against the Cowboys, but Denver has not scored more than 24 points in regulation in five straight games.

Denver’s defense shut down Las Vegas last week before the Raiders scored 10 points in the 2:17 of the game. The Broncos won 24-17, as the Raiders were held to 229 yards of offense. In the last five weeks, the Broncos have faced Geno Smith twice, Marcus Mariota, Davis Mills, and Patrick Mahomes. Obviously Mahomes is the class of that group, but Denver squares off with Jordan Love, who has topped the 3,000-yard passing mark and has thrown 22 TDs and only four interceptions. The Green Bay offense has been terrific on the road, while both these teams rank in the top-five in the league in yards allowed per game. Let’s look at the Over here as these offenses have the capability to put up points on this low total.

Packers vs Broncos pick: Over 42.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 43.

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Kevin Rogers

8:20 PM ET

Sun Dec 14

NBC

Vikings

Cowboys

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Point Spread Pick

MIN Vikings +5.5(-110)

Reasoning

The mystical JJ McCarthy experience continues. In Week 14 it was the good kind. Needless to say, NFL media and Vikings’ fans were losing trust in Kevin O’Connell before last Sunday, the guy who orchestrated Sam Darnold’s departure and put his stock in the former Michigan star. Many are still very skeptical, including yours truly. JJ McCarthy had enough good moments in his initial few starts to suggest maybe there’s something there, including a sterling fourth quarter comeback against the Bears in Week 1. But until last week most of his performances were of the bad kind, reminiscent of a kid whose confidence may have overshot reality. Last week the good version returned for at least one game, even if the rookie got a lot of help from his teammates. Minnesota jumped out to a 14-0 lead after their first two drives. The second drive was a brilliantly executed, 12 minute, 98-yard showcase of O’Connell’s ability to design the perfect offense for any quarterback. But the Vikings only gained 42 yards for the next two quarters following. In garbage time eventually capitalized on a few advantageous short fields. While we were mildly impressed by McCarthy in Week 14 (16-23, 163 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions), it doesn’t mean their offense is suddenly “figured out” again, nor do we trust the rookie to perform consistently at that level.

Minnesota’s defense is less of a concern, 9th overall in total in defensive EPA and most weeks keeping their team in the game. They’ll need to be one of the best this Sunday.

The Dallas offense tripped up this past Thursday against the Lions, but we’re not going to fade the Cowboys because of one game. Week 14 was more about their opponent, a desperate team at home who rode momentum once they found it. Dallas’ offense still had its chances, and Detroit struggled limiting their production throughout the contest (417 total yards, 25 first downs, both out-pacing Detroit). Regardless, Dallas retains a top unit (7th in EPA per pass, 1st in yards per game). They’ll battle a top-tier defense on the other side, but the Cowboys’ consistent, exceptional play along their front (fourth overall in sacks allowed, 12th in yards per carry) can create a formidable challenge for the Vikings’ pass-rush (4th in sack percentage).

On the other side, Dallas’ defense showed notable improvement in Weeks 12 and 13 but took a step back at Detroit, although even great defenses have had similar moments at Ford Field. Overall we still see an improving group, but McCarthy has another opportunity to look his best against a Dallas-defense that’s mostly been abysmal all season (30th in EPA per pass). We wanted to find ways to justify a bet on the Cowboys, but the Vikings are never dead with O’Connell steering the ship. And frankly, our power ratings don’t score these teams as grossly disparate.

Vikings vs Cowboys SNF prediction: Vikings +5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.5.

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Game Totals Pick

Under 47.5(-110)

Reasoning

This total is slightly above average, but not as high as many would have projected earlier in the season. Psychologically it’s very interesting. For some reason the market inherently trusts Kevin O’Connell, even if the larger sample size suggests we shouldn’t. We realize they had one game with Max Brosmer as their starter. Still, Minnesota ranks 30th overall in EPA per pass, a metric that McCarthy affected far more than his colleagues. Well, except Brosmer. They also score just 19.6 points per game. Their ground attack has been formidable at times but they don’t run the ball enough (27th in rush play percentage, 40.05%). The Cowboys will remain far below average defensively but they’re not being served some juggernaut, either.

Minnesota’s defense may be the most consistent of any unit. We’ve had our critiques of Brian Flores, who has moments that have us scratching our heads. Top coordinators and quarterbacks can navigate the puzzles he creates, but the truth is most fall victim. Flores is extremely creative in his schemes and blitzes more than any coach in the league (48%). While Dallas has been proficient at protecting Dak Prescott, there is nothing easy about this matchup. No matter which way you pitch it, 47.5 points is still a ton. For both teams, playoff hopes are on the line. We completely understand why markets think this could turn into a showcase of scoring, but from where we’re sitting a defensive battle is just as likely. We project this to end around 44, so we have no other choice.

Vikings vs Cowboys SNF pick: Under 47.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 46.5.

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Chris R. Farley

8:15 PM ET

Mon Dec 15

ABC, ESPN

Dolphins

Steelers

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Point Spread PickBest Bet

PIT Steelers -3.5(-110)

Reasoning

The Dolphins and Steelers both experienced success in Week 14, although one performance was undoubtedly more impressive than the other. At the Meadowlands, Miami benefited from an early Tyrod Taylor exit in the first quarter, so the Jets were forced to roll out 24-year-old Brady Cook, who had zero prior experience playing in the NFL. Needless to say, the Dolphins took advantage and ran the ball for 239 yards on New York, dominating time of possession and controlling the game after jumping out to a 21-7 lead in the first 15 minutes. For another week, Mike McDaniel, Tua Tagovailoa and company survived again, now 6-7 and still in the AFC playoff race. Last Sunday marked their fourth victory in a row, although it’s worth noting that their last three victories came against some of the NFL’s worst outfits (WAS, NO, NYJ).

For Tagovailoa, the win was more significant because it was in the cold. Previously, the former Alabama quarterback was 0-7 in NFL games where the temperature hit 46 degrees or less. Monday night will present an entirely different scenario than what he experienced last week in Jersey.

The Steelers are coming off arguably their most complete game of the season, holding off the Ravens in Baltimore last Sunday. Baltimore gained 420 yards against Pittsburgh’s defense, but half of that production (210 yards) came in the fourth quarter when they were playing catch-up. Aaron Rodgers had a very clean game and despite his offense lacking a rushing attack (34 total yards), Pittsburgh’s pesky defense came through when it mattered. The Ravens were just 2-6 In the red-zone.

Pittsburgh is forecasted to be around 20°F at kickoff on Monday night, which is an element we absolutely hate for Tua. We have seen this story too many times, and it’s the type of game where TJ Watt and the Steelers’ defense can thrive. We also don’t trust the Dolphins defense, which ranks a lowly 24th and EPA per pass. This is Steelers or nothing.

Dolphins vs Steelers MNF best bet: Steelers -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 5.

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Game Totals Pick

Under 41.5(-110)

Reasoning

The once prolific Miami Dolphins’ offense is a shell of itself at this point, although their rushing attack has held up their operation lately. Thanks to the talents of De’Von Achane , Miami has run for 197, 169, 164, and 239 in their last four games, all wins. The consistent production means they’re sitting at 7th in EPA per rush, but their passing attack is still far behind— 18th according to the same metrics.

Tua is also far too mistake-prone, ranked 31st in interceptions, which he tosses at a rate of 3.74%. The Steelers defense hasn’t been very good against opposing rushers, permitting 125.3 yards per game (21st), but they can also put all their focus on preventing the Dolphins ground attack. In short, we do not feel good about Miami’s chances when they have the ball.

This total will probably be decided when the Steelers have the ball, which is a little tougher to predict. Miami’s defense is average to below average, allowing 22.8 points (15th) and 334.5 yards per game (19th). The Steelers offense qualifies as equally sub-average, putting up 23.7 points (14th) and just 284.5 yards per game (27th). Rodgers is coming off one of his better games of the season, but the cold, bitter weather of Western Pennsylvania probably won’t help a 41-year-old quarterback, either.

The home spot for Pittsburgh and a wintry environment means we can only look one way.

Dolphins vs Steelers prediction: Under 41.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Chris R. Farley

Why Trust our NFL Picks

Through week 14 of the 2025 season our team of NFL handicappers have made against the spread and totals picks for every game. with 113 wins (and 2 pushes) our record speaks for itself. Our expert NFL picks against the spread have scored +27.4 units of profit so far this season.

Wins	Push	Losses	Profit (betting units)
113	2	91	+27.4

At Pickswise, every NFL pick is backed by years of betting experience, advanced data analysis, and a proven track record of success. Our team of handicappers studies line movement, injury reports, historical trends, and matchup stats to deliver informed recommendations — not guesses. We publish our results openly, update our predictions as new information emerges, and never hide behind vague analysis. Whether you’re looking for expert spreads, totals, props, or parlays, our mission is simple: give you honest, well-researched picks that stand up over time.

Free NFL Picks Explained

We firmly believe expert NFL picks should be free, so you’ll find our NFL picks today, and every day of the season, right here. We publish our free NFL picks for every game, at least a few days in advance of gameday, so you know who the experts are backing without missing out on the early value in the betting markets.

There’s almost an infinite way to bet on the NFL, from NFL picks against the spread, moneyline, over/under, NFL Parlays, and NFL Prop Bets, there is a bet type for every kind of football fan, so we provide NFL picks for every bet type. Some bettors like to specialize in a single particular type of NFL pick, while others like to have a diverse range and bet on anything they feel is a value pick.

Here at Pickswise, we have something for everyone. Our team of handicappers have a wealth of experience in making NFL picks across all these betting markets, leaving no stone unturned ahead of every game and every pick of the 2025 NFL season. If you’re looking for more information on NFL bet types, You can find our expert breakdown of each below.

NFL Picks Against the Spread

The most popular way to bet on the NFL is against the spread (ATS). With these wagers, you are not picking a simple winner or loser of a game. Instead, ATS betting is placing your money that Team A wins by a certain amount of points or that Team B will keep the game closer than oddsmakers expect, in other words, not lose by that same amount of points.

For Example

Philadelphia Eagles -7 – Philadelphia must win by 8 or more points to cover the spread.
Chicago Bears +7 – Chicago must win, or lose by 6 or fewer points to cover the spread.
Tie Scenario – If the game ended 27-20 to Philadelphia, the spread would be a tie, or a push and stakes would be returned.

NFL spread betting trends 2025

The team that covers the spread wins the game outright around 80% of the time.
Road teams going into games as the favorite have covered the spread at 64% so far this season
Teams coming off a blowout loss (20+ points) tend to rebound against the spread, 57% of the time.

Free NFL Over / Under Picks

Another exciting way to still get in on the NFL action is with totals wagers. In these bets you don’t take a side, but whether the two teams will combine to score over or under the total number of points that the oddsmakers have set. Already since sports betting has been legalized we’ve seen many occasions where a hail mary, missed FG or XP has cost over or unders bettors, so be prepared to be in for the long haul with your totals bets. We preview every game of the NFL season, providing insight into the game as a whole alongside expert NFL picks so you can make informed NFL totals bets.

NFL over / under betting trends

Overall, unders have proven the value pick in recent seasons, as defenses have caught up with scoring trending down since 2021
Unders bets have the edge in divisional games, landing 57% of the time. This trend gets stronger late in the season (week 13 onwards), especially in cold weather conditions.
Unders bets have landed on 58% of primetime games, as public betting tends to have a bias for the overs in these games.

Money Line NFL Picks

Ask any seasoned NFL bettor and they’ll tell you that ATS betting is exciting, but can also be frustrating. It is important to keep in mind that NFL teams only need to win by one, of course, they’d love to win by more, but they’ll change their schemes late on to secure a win, not to ensure they cover the spread. Your research could have given you the right side, but if they win by 6 instead of 7 your -6.5 bet is a loss. Therefore a lot of bettors like to keep it simple and take our expert NFL Money Line picks and bet on the NFL straight up.

NFL Moneyline betting trends

Through the first 4 weeks of the 2025 season 6+ point favourites have been strong straight up, with a 16-2-1 record
Short underdogs (+1 to +3 on the spread) win outright 43% of the time, offering better value on the moneyline than the spread
Underdogs in lower scoring road games (less than 42 total points) win outright 39% of the time, but often at better prices than this record suggests.

2025-26 NFL Schedule

This will be the 106th season in league history and is set to kick off with the NFL Kick-Off game on Thursday, September 4, hosted by the defending Super Bowl Champions Philadelphia Eagles, who take on the Dallas Cowboys. The regular season will come to a conclusion on January 4, 2026 with the NFL Playoffs scheduled to begin the following weekend on the 10th, 11th & 12th of January 2026. Super Bowl LX is scheduled for February 8, 2026, at Levi’s Stadium in San Francisco, California, the home of the 49ers.

NFL Playoff Picks

You can find our NFL picks for the 2026 Playoffs, right here, for free. Wildcard Weekend is scheduled to start January 10, upon the conclusion of week 18 our experts start to make their picks and predictions for the first round of the playoffs and after each round is concluded we prepare for the coming weekend, all the way up to the Super Bowl.

NFL Playoff Picks
NFL Wildcard Weekend Picks
NFL Divisional Round Picks
NFL Conference Championship Picks

NFL Expert Picks

Our NFL Football picks will be for every game throughout the regular season, with primetime games and the top matchups each week getting additional expert coverage which will extend to every playoff game. These NFL Football picks will come alongside analysis and the latest stats and trends to consider when betting. You can also find our NFL Best Bets for the top plays of the week and a confidence rating for our expert handicapper.

Looking for alternative football picks? then head to our College Football Picks page, where you’ll find the same level of expertise from the Pickswise handicapping team for all the headline games in the 2025 NCAA football season.

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Statistical Approach to NFL Picks

It’s our goal to provide you with the best NFL picks in the market. Our expert handicappers are all specially selected and assessed prior to joining the team to ensure their analysis. experience and results are among the best in the industry. Each capper will put hours of research into each pick and many have built statistical models to find their moneyline, spread and over/under picks so you don’t have to. Check out all of our cappers’ free NFL picks here every week of the season.

Andrew Wilsher, Pickswise Managing Editor

NFL Picks FAQs

How Do You Pick Against The Spread In The NFL?

To bet against the spread in the NFL you are either betting the favorite to win by x number of points or the underdog to win, or lose by fewer than x points. For example the Chiefs -7 points or the Panthers +7 points.

The number of points is set by sportsbooks and is often referred to as the line

What Is The Best Website For NFL Picks Against The Spread?

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Each pick is meticulously researched by an experienced NFL handicapper, using our own data, custom-built models, and analytical methods. Our profit this season is 26 units and rising, so don’t miss out on the best NFL picks this week.