NFL Picks

NFL picks for every game of the 2025-26 season. Our NFL expert picks are informed by key betting trends, statistical analysis and years of NFL betting experience. +78.1 units profit, from 296 winning NFL picks so far this season is the proof.

Our NFL picks this week include against the spread picks for every game in Wild Card Weekend:

Rams vs Panthers

Packers vs Bears

Bills vs Jaguars

49ers vs Eagles

Chargers vs Patriots

Texans vs Steelers

Filter Picks

4:30 PM ET

Sat Jan 10

FOX

Rams

Panthers

View Preview

Point Spread Pick

LA Rams -10.0(-110)

Reasoning

Immediately, several factors are working against the Carolina Panthers in this matchup. Before we get to these factors, we should say that home field advantage has proven to be a significant indicator of playoff success, at least since 2022. Over the past 4 seasons, home teams have gone 18-6 straight up. That being said, and with all due respect to the Carolina Panthers, that might be their only advantage.

That doesn’t mean Carolina can’t win this game. In fact, we’ve seen the Panthers play their best against some of their toughest opponents. One might remember a 30-0 statement in Week 3 after another predictable 0-2 start, a victory that suggested they might not be the same bottom-feeding program we’re used to. They followed with wins against Dallas, at Green Bay, versus Tampa in Week 16 to take control of their own destiny, and a seminal win in Week 13 against the very same Rams. They ran all over Sean McVay’s defense in Week 13, too, piling up 164 on the ground.

We just have a hard time seeing the same result (or even close) in the Wild Card round. Matthew Stafford, currently leading the odds for MVP, had his worst outing of the year on that fateful Sunday 7 weeks ago. The former Super Bowl champion threw 2 interceptions at crucial parts of the game and lost a fumble on what should have been a game-winning touchdown drive. The Rams’ defense seemed to just take off work, allowing nearly 400 total yards (358) to the usually hapless Panthers. It was the worst we’ve seen LAR all season, which is why we’re confident we won’t see that again on Saturday.

Regression to the mean has a way of swinging back more vicious than it came, and in this instance, we think that’s a very plausible outcome. By every conceivable metric, the Rams are far better than the Panthers. In EPA metrics, the visitors have the 2nd-best offensive rating in the NFL. In the same category, the Panthers rank 26th. Davante Adams, their All-Pro wideout who led the NFL in touchdowns this season, despite missing the last 2 games, is expected to be back for this showdown. Add the retributive element of a rematch and the championship experience of the Rams’ leadership, and we’re anticipating a rare massacre of the home team.

Rams vs Panthers prediction: Rams -10 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

You can bet on our Rams vs Panthers pick with BetMGM, where right now new users can activate your new BetMGM account ⚡ and receive $150 in bonus bets INSTANTLY if your first $10+ wager is a winner!

BET -10.0 NOW WITH

Game Totals Pick

Over 46.5(-110)

Reasoning

Their Week 13 matchup was a display of offense, but it wasn’t catalyzed by the Rams’ mistakes. Carolina never created points from turnovers. In fact, Stafford’s interceptions suggest even more points should have piled up in their previous battle, since LAR’s mistakes only stymied more production. These are all valid reasons for a relatively high total, the 2nd-highest of Wild Card Weekend, although the playoffs have a way of slowing games down.

A total of 46.5 also isn’t drastically high considering that we expect the Rams’ offense to respond with ferocity. The market agrees, thus their -10.5 designation. The addition of Davante Adams is a drastic upgrade for an offense that might already have the #1 receiver in the NFL. Despite missing one game, Puka Nacua leads the league in receptions (129) and he’s 2nd in receiving yards (1715). Needless to say, with Stafford playing at an MVP level, we anticipate the Rams displaying massive positive regression against the 22nd-ranked Carolina defense.

The real question is on Carolina’s side. Clearly, they figured something out in their Week 13 victory over the same enemy. They controlled time of possession (35-25) and were steady when it mattered — 7-15 on 3rd down and 3-3 on 4th. Their 358 total yards were their 4th-most of the season. In general, Bryce Young is a better quarterback at home, both in poise (4 interceptions in Charlotte, 7 elsewhere) and from an efficiency standpoint (66.1% compared to 62.1% on the road). Contrarily, he averaged just 156 passing yards per game in front of his fans.

This number is very sharp but a few ticks too high considering the matchup comforts for both offenses. It helps that Charlotte will present a mild, complementary environment for December football.

Rams vs Panthers pick: Over 46.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 47.

If you’re looking for a new sportsbook, check out Bet365, the world’s #1 sportsbook. They have an amazing sign-up offer where you can INSTANTLY receive $150 in bonus bets from a $5 wager, regardless of whether that bet wins or loses! There’s no catch, it’s really that simple. Join Bet365 right now ⏰ in time to fade or follow our experts’ Rams vs Panthers predictions.

BET o46.5 NOW WITH

Chris R. Farley

Player Receptions Pick

D. Adams (LAR) - Under 4.5 recs(-145)

Reasoning

Davante Adams was in the midst of an excellent season for the Rams before a hamstring injury sidelined the veteran wide receiver. And while Adams is slated to return to the lineup for a potential run to the Super Bowl this week, I expect that he will be limited a bit by his coaching staff in a game that Los Angeles should have control over for most of the proceedings.

Not only are the Rams massive favorites and should be able to lean on their ground game and experience to cruise to a win and advance to the next round, but Carolina is weakest against tight ends in the passing game, so it might not be situation where Adams gets much work beyond a few catches here and there. Let’s grab the under on his receptions number while it’s still at a somewhat reasonable price.

BET +4.5 NOW WITH

Player Interceptions Pick

B. Young (CAR) - Over 0.5 INTs(-110)

Reasoning

While this season has been a nice story for Bryce Young and the Panthers as a team, the Carolina quarterback has not exactly performed all that well in big spots, and that includes recent outings against the Seahawks and Buccaneers, where massive playoff implications were at stake. Young did have a very strong outing against the Rams in the first meeting between these teams, but this is an entirely different level of pressure for a quarterback who is making his first postseason start.

At the end of the day, the Alabama product has thrown 11 interceptions this season, with 5 of those turnovers coming against playoff teams. The Rams’ defence should be primed to reverse their fortunes from that first meeting, and I can certainly see Los Angeles forcing Young into mistakes on Saturday.

BET +0.5 NOW WITH

Caleb Wilfinger

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick

T. Tremble (CAR) to score a TD(+650)

Reasoning

Let’s start the postseason with a bang. Tommy Tremble picked a great time to have the best game of his season last week. He reeled in 3 of 4 targets, including his 2nd touchdown of the season. His season-high in snap percentage was due to the trailing game script the Panthers found themselves in — one they’ll likely be in again versus a Rams team that is a 10-point road favorite. With that in mind, there looks to be some value in Tremble finding the end zone again at +650 odds.

BET +650 NOW WITH

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick

P. Nacua (LAR) to score a TD(-110)

Reasoning

Saturday is looking to be the Puka Nacua show. His receptions line is set at 7.5 at even money, while his receiving yards line is set at 90.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook — the most of any player by at least 20 yards. He’s a threat down in the red zone via the pass and run game, even with Davante Adams and his league-leading 14 receiving touchdowns. The Panthers’ defense is capable of keeping them in this game, but Nacua is a mismatch nightmare, and he’s scored 6 touchdowns over the last 5 weeks. Even at this price, I feel confident backing Nacua to score a TD to open up the Wild Card festivities.

BET -110 NOW WITH

Justin Martin (JutPicks)

8:00 PM ET

Sat Jan 10

Amazon Prime Video

Packers

Bears

View Preview

Point Spread Pick

CHI Bears +1.5(-110)

Reasoning

The two oldest rivals in NFL history hook up in the playoffs for the 3rd time ever (1941 and 2010) on Saturday night at Soldier Field. Chicago (11-6) captured the NFC North title for the first time since 2018, overcoming an 0-2 start to win 11 of the final 15 games. Although the Bears lost a meaningless Week 18 game to the Lions, Chicago finished 6-2 at home with the first loss coming in the season-opening meltdown against Minnesota. The Bears posted a strong 11-5-1 ATS mark in head coach Ben Johnson’s first season, as the lone non-cover in a win occurred in the Week 10 comeback victory over the Giants.

Green Bay (9-7-1) stumbled to the finish line with 4 consecutive losses, though its biggest loss was arguably LB Micah Parsons tearing his ACL in the Week 15 setback at Denver. The game that cost the Packers the division title was the Week 16 meltdown at Chicago, blowing a 16-6 lead with 2 minutes remaining in regulation. The Bears scored 10 straight points to force overtime, then QB Caleb Williams connected with D.J. Moore on a 46-yard TD for the 22-16 triumph. Green Bay held off Chicago in the first matchup at Lambeau Field, 28-21 in Week 14, as the Packers are 4-2 against the Bears since Jordan Love took over at QB in 2023.

The Packers are 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS in the playoffs with Love starting, all played on the road. Green Bay put together a 6-11 ATS mark this season, including a 1-5 ATS record as a road favorite. However, 4 of those non-covers as away chalk came when laying at least a touchdown. Chicago led the league with 23 interceptions and a +22 in the takeaway department. Love finished with 6 interceptions, and 1 of those picks came in the home win over the Bears.

Chicago is seeking its first playoff win since 2010 against Seattle; the Bears lost to the Packers in the NFC Championship that year. Green Bay hasn’t been sharp over the last month, and although the money has moved in favor of the Packers, let’s grab the Bears as a home underdog.

Packers vs Bears prediction: Chicago Bears +1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 1.

You can bet on our Packers vs Bears pick with BetMGM, where right now new users can activate your new BetMGM account ⚡ and receive $150 in bonus bets INSTANTLY if your first $10+ wager is a winner!

BET +1.0 NOW WITH

Game Totals Pick

Under 45.5(-110)

Reasoning

Neither of these rivals put up convincing total records either way, as Green Bay went 9-8 to the over and Chicago posted a 9-8 mark to the under. The Packers hit the over in 6 of their first 7 road games before consecutive unders to close the season. It’s easy to throw out Week 18 at Minnesota, as QB Jordan Love sat out a 16-3 loss, but the Pack stayed under in the Week 15 overtime loss at Chicago, too. The Bears rallied late to force overtime and stun the Packers, 22-16, as the total of 44.5 was never threatened.

Chicago hit the over in the season-opening loss to Minnesota, but the Bears cashed the under in 6 of the final 7 games played at Soldier Field. The Bears yielded 19 or fewer points in each of the last 3 home outings, while giving up 20 or less points in 6 of the final 8 games. Packers star LB Micah Parsons tore up his knee in the Week 15 loss at Denver, but Green Bay gave up 22 points or fewer points in 2 of the final 3 games. The under has hit in each of the Packers’ last 2 playoff games, including in last season’s 22-10 defeat at Philadelphia with a 46 total.

The Bears were feast or famine on the defensive side, intercepting a league-high 23 passes, but ranking 29th in yards allowed at 361.8 per game. Chicago gave up 134 yards per game on the ground, but Green Bay sat in the middle of the league with 119.8 rushing yards per contest. The 45.5 total is the highest for the 3 matchups this season, with the over of 43.5 hitting in Green Bay and the under of 44 cashing in Chicago. Let’s look at the under here for a grind-it-out Wild Card matchup between the Packers and Bears.

Packers vs Bears pick: Under 45.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

If you’re looking for a new sportsbook for the football season, we recommend checking out Fanatics Sportsbook. New users can get $250 in FanCash INSTANTLY when they make their first $50 wager! Join Fanatics Sportsbook, where you can bet on our Packers vs Bears predictions.

BET u45.5 NOW WITH

Kevin Rogers

1:00 PM ET

Sun Jan 11

CBS

Bills

Jaguars

View Preview

Money Line Pick

BUF Bills Win(-115)

Reasoning

Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars have been fantastic in the 2nd half of the season, there is no denying that. New coach Liam Coen clearly has edges as an NFL head coach, both culturally and from a play-calling perspective, and it’s changed the franchise for the better. Since the start of November, their only loss was at the Texans, a barnburner of a contest where they were stymied by an all-world Houston defense, but they have been relatively flawless since.

Lawrence is top-6 or better in many passing categories, including yards (4,006) and touchdowns (29). Through the air and on the ground, they’re consistent and productive, ranked 12th in EPA metrics. Their defense showed perhaps the most surprising improvement, up to 3rd overall in EPA metrics, including top-3 marks against opposing quarterbacks.

The difference in this game is experience. Josh Allen and Sean McDermott have been a QB-coach tandem in 13 playoff games (this is Coen’s first playoff game as a head coach, Lawrence is 1-2 in his postseason career), and Allen’s performances have been stellar (25 touchdowns, only 4 interceptions). Entering the Wild Card round and after an embattled, clumsy season, Buffalo is as healthy as it’s been all year. And offensively, they’re as buttoned up as they’ve always been, top-3 overall with top-4 rankings in EPA per pass and EPA per run.

Defensively, it’s a mixed bag. Buffalo thrives against opposing quarterbacks, ranked 7th in defensive EPA per pass, but virtually anyone can run on them. Their 5.1 opponent yards per carry is bottom-3 in the league. Luckily for the Bills, Jacksonville isn’t exceptional on the ground, ranked 27th in yards per carry (4.0) and 20th in yards per game (115.1).

Home teams typically have a big advantage, but matchup-wise, we see a strong case to be made for the visitors. Allen is one of the most talented players in the history of the NFL, and as a franchise, no team has more experience or more motivation to get further in the postseason than Buffalo. We expect this to be a tightly fought game and a teaser on Jacksonville is a fine option, but there’s only one way we can look in terms of a winner.

Bills vs Jaguars prediction: Bills ML (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -1.5.

If you’re looking for a new sportsbook, check out Bet365, the world’s #1 sportsbook. They have an amazing sign-up offer where you can INSTANTLY receive $200 in bonus bets from a $5 wager, regardless of whether that bet wins or loses! There’s no catch, it’s really that simple. Join Bet365 right now ⏰ in time to fade or follow our experts’ Bills vs Jaguars predictions.

BET -115 NOW WITH

Game Totals Pick

Under 52.5(-110)

Reasoning

One interesting aspect of this game is the weather. Jacksonville is forecasted to be sunny and in the 70s, which is a far different environment than what the Bills are used to at this point of the season. That’s an advantage for the Jaguars’ offense. Buffalo already struggles to limit enemy production, especially when it comes to explosive plays (they’re 20th in opponent points per play) and opponent 3rd-down conversion rate (24th). Trevor Lawrence has cleaned up his game, but in the past, it’s been the norm for him to make far too many mistakes (11 interceptions through his first 11 games this season). Buffalo is 8th in defensive interception rate (2.8% of plays), so we could see Trevor regressing to his old ways.

Jacksonville‘s defense is a very legitimate group, ranking in the top-11 or better in most major categories. In limiting opponent 3rd downs, they are also below average (20th), but there is no denying their consistency on a down-by-down basis. The Jags’ new-look defense led by Anthony Campanile allows just 5 yards per play, and they’re even higher-rated against opposing quarterbacks (6.2 yards per pass allowed, 3rd overall). They should present a formidable challenge against Josh Allen and company, but we still think the former NFL MVP will rise to the occasion.

The question is: how much scoring will Josh Allen and his teammates produce on the road against a top-tier unit? That will likely decide this total. The Bills have been down this route too many times to predict a precipitous drop in production, especially considering the urgency of yet another playoff opportunity. That being said, 52.5 is an outrageously high number for an elimination game, and defenses tend to outplay offenses when the pressure is high. Jacksonville’s naivete is also an advantage for the Buffalo defense, who we expect to play better behind specialist Sean McDermott, who was hired to engineer repeatable, elite defenses. As much as we’d love to see a high-flying affair, we can’t support an over at this high of a number.

Bills vs Jags pick: Under 52.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 51.5.

You can bet on our Bills vs Jaguars pick with BetMGM, where right now new users can activate your new BetMGM account ⚡ and receive $150 in bonus bets INSTANTLY if your first $10+ wager is a winner!

BET u52.5 NOW WITH

Chris R. Farley

Vote on who will win!

4:30 PM ET

Sun Jan 11

FOX

49ers

Eagles

View Preview

Point Spread PickBest Bet

SF 49ers +4.5(-110)

Reasoning

The San Francisco 49ers (12-5) withstood a bunch of injuries to key players this season, including QB Brock Purdy missing 8 games. The Niners had an opportunity at the top seed in the NFC before falling at home to the Seahawks last Saturday, 13-3. San Francisco fell to the 6th seed, getting set to face the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles (11-6). There were plenty of ups and downs for the Eagles, including 3 winning streaks of 3 games and a losing skid of 3 games, but they managed to grab the NFC East title for a 2nd straight season.

Philadelphia and San Francisco each finished with 10-7 ATS marks, while the Niners won 7 of 9 games away from Levi’s Stadium. Head coach Kyle Shanahan’s squad beat the Seahawks and Rams on the road in the first 5 weeks, but the other 5 away victories came against teams with losing records. The 49ers posted a 2-4 ATS ledger in the underdog role, which included an overtime triumph over the Rams as a 6.5-point dog in Week 5. The Eagles compiled a 4-4 ATS record at Lincoln Financial Field, including outright defeats to the Broncos and Bears. Philadelphia ranked 24th in yards per game (311.2), the 3rd-fewest for any playoff team after ranking 8th in this category during its Super Bowl run last season.

These teams last met in December 2023 when the Niners roughed up the Eagles at the Linc 42-19 as 3.5-point road favorites. Purdy threw 4 TD passes, while now-departed WR Deebo Samuel scored 3 times. In their last playoff matchup in the 2022 NFC Championship, the Eagles shredded the 49ers 31-7, but Purdy was hurt early and San Francisco was forced to run the ball basically the entire game. The Niners are 6-3 in the playoffs under Shanahan since 2021 and have not been bounced in their first game. Let’s back the 49ers with the points against the defending champs.

49ers vs Eagles best bet: San Francisco 49ers +4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 3.5.

You can bet on our 49ers vs Eagles pick with BetMGM, where right now new users can activate your new BetMGM account ⚡ and receive $150 in bonus bets INSTANTLY if your first $10+ wager is a winner!

BET +4.5 NOW WITH

Game Totals Pick

Under 44.5(-110)

Reasoning

The Niners went 10-7 to the over this season, while the Eagles posted a 10-7 under mark for the second consecutive year. Six of San Francisco’s 9 road games cashed the over, as the 49ers topped the 34-point mark in 3 of the final 4 away contests. In the 2 road games against playoff teams, San Francisco allowed a total of 36 points to Seattle and Los Angeles. Philadelphia went 5-3 to the under at home, while allowing 21 or less 5 times. Down the stretch, the Eagles scored fewer than 21 points in 7 of 9 games.

The Eagles ranked 8th in the league in passing yards allowed per game (189.8), facing a 49ers offense that placed 5th in passing yards even though starting QB Brock Purdy played in only 9 games. Purdy averaged 240.7 passing yards in his 9 appearances, while backup Mac Jones put up 268.8 passing yards in his 8 starts. Philadelphia QB Jalen Hurts threw for more yards this season (3,224) than in last season’s Super Bowl run (2,903), but averaged a shade over 200 yards passing.

This total sits at 44.5 as Philadelphia finished with a 7-2 under ledger in the final 9 games. One of those overs came in the season finale against Washington on a 38.5 total; the Commanders scored a pair of 4th-quarter TDs in a 24-17 win. The Niners compiled a 3-1 under mark on the road with a total of 45 or less. Each of the last 3 playoff openers for Philadelphia have finished under the total with combined totals of 45, 41, and 32. Let’s look at the under here in a game with both teams staying in the low-20’s.

49ers vs Eagles prediction: Under 44.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 44.

You can bet on our 49ers vs Eagles pick at DraftKings Sportsbook, which has thousands of betting options available and a great new customer offer where you can get $300 in bonus bets instantly if your first $5 wager is a winner! Click here 👈🏼 to sign up for a DraftKings account now.

BET u44.5 NOW WITH

Kevin Rogers

8:15 PM ET

Sun Jan 11

NBC

Chargers

Patriots

View Preview

Point Spread Pick

NE Patriots -3.5(-110)

Reasoning

There wasn’t much faith that the Bills would have their 5-year stranglehold atop the AFC East this season. The Patriots seemed like a long shot after a 4-13 record in QB Drake Maye’s rookie season, but New England brought in former LB Mike Vrabel as head coach. Vrabel helped flip that 4-13 mark to 14-3 and propel Maye to strong MVP consideration with 4,394 passing yards and 31 TD passes. New England overcame a 1-2 start, which included a mind-boggling loss to Las Vegas in the opener, to win 10 consecutive games before melting down in the second half against Buffalo. The strike against New England is 12 of its 14 victories came against non-playoff teams, as the Pats only beat the Panthers and Bills in consecutive games early in the season.

The Chargers travel cross-country to Gillette Stadium as QB Justin Herbert seeks his first playoff victory in 3 tries. After losses to Jacksonville and Houston in the last 3 seasons, Herbert and the Lightning Bolts try to break through after a 2nd straight 11-6 regular season. Los Angeles went through a 7-1 stretch from late October through Christmas before dropping the final 2 games to Houston and Denver. The Week 18 loss to the Broncos meant nothing since Herbert sat and the Chargers had no chance at winning the AFC West. In 4 games as an underdog with Herbert starting, the Chargers posted a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS mark, including a pair of victories over the Chiefs and a home win over the Eagles.

It’s interesting how the Patriots didn’t lose a road game, but dropped 3 games in Foxboro. New England finished 8-3 ATS as a favorite, as 2 of the non-covers came in close victories over Cincinnati and Atlanta. The argument against New England and its schedule is valid, but the Pats also defeated the Buccaneers and Ravens as underdogs, both of whom had a shot to win their divisions in Week 18. Herbert hasn’t won a playoff game, and they are going into a tough environment in the cold on Sunday night against a Patriots’ team that is hosting their its postseason game since 2019.

Chargers vs Patriots prediction: New England Patriots -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.

BET -3.5 NOW WITH

Game Totals Pick

Over 46.0(-110)

Reasoning

These teams went in opposite directions from a total standpoint, as the Chargers were 11-6 to the under, compared to an 11-6 mark to the over for the Patriots. Los Angeles hit the under in each of the first 5 games before eclipsing the over in the next 4 contests. Meanwhile, New England closed things out with 9 overs in the final 11 games, while going 6-1 to the over in the last 7 contests at Gillette Stadium. The Pats scored at least 24 points in each of their final 12 games, including topping the 30-point mark in each of their last 3 home contests.

The Chargers were excellent defensively this season, ranking 5th in total yards allowed (285.2) and 5th in passing yards allowed per game (179.9). Los Angeles gave up 20 or fewer points in 9 of the final 10 games, as the one outlier came in a 35-6 loss at Jacksonville in Week 11. QB Justin Herbert eclipsed the 4,000-yard passing mark in each of his first 3 seasons, but has failed to reach that plateau in the last 3 years. Herbert finished with 3,727 yards, while tossing 26 TDs, his most since 2021.

The Patriots finished with 379.4 yards per game, good for 3rd in the NFL. It was an amazing turnaround after finishing 31st in the league last season in that category with 291.9 yards per game. It will be a tough task against this Chargers defense, but the Patriots have shown they can score and move the ball with Drake Maye running the show. This total has moved up to 46, and these offenses are capable of reaching this number on Sunday night at Gillette Stadium.

Chargers vs Patriots pick: Over 46 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

You can bet on our Chargers vs Pats pick with BetMGM, where right now new users can activate your new BetMGM account ⚡ and receive $150 in bonus bets INSTANTLY if your first $10+ wager is a winner!

BET o46.0 NOW WITH

Kevin Rogers

8:15 PM ET

Mon Jan 12

ESPN

Texans

Steelers

View Preview

Point Spread Pick

PIT Steelers +3.0(-105)

Reasoning

One game-ending missed field goal is what saved the Steelers’ season, but they still deserve their flowers. Without DK Metcalf, easily their best offensive weapon, Aaron Rodgers followed a smart game plan by Arthur Smith, resulting in 26 points, 24 first downs and 390 total yards. It was one of the Steelers’ best offensive performances of the season, and they did it when it mattered most. That’s good news for the Wild Card round considering who their opponent will be.

Pittsburgh has hope thanks to Aaron Rodgers, a legendary coach in Mike Tomlin (19 straight winning seasons, no big deal) and a defense of stars that make big plays when they need to. They also have home-field advantage, at least in the first round. Whenever we analyze a Pittsburgh game, it’s impossible not to mention intangibles. Again, Tomlin has outperformed doubters’ expectations and produced another winning campaign, despite a lack of talent at crucial skill positions and season-long metrics that suggest they shouldn’t have. According to EPA stats, the Steelers rank 14th on offense and just 20th on defense. But it just doesn’t seem to matter. Whether it’s calling the right plays at the right moment, a crafty snap count by Rodgers or a forced fumble by TJ Watt, the Steelers have shown they can play up when the chips are down. Watch their 2nd-half victories over the Lions and Ravens (twice) for further evidence.

The biggest matchup advantage on Monday night is in favor of the visitors. The Texans’ defense has been the standard in the AFC this season, ranked 1st overall in total EPA metrics, including the #1 spot in defensive EPA per pass. Their combination of relentless pressure (they lead the NFL) and a secondary that’s as disciplined and sticky as any in the league makes it nearly impossible for enemy quarterbacks to win the day. Of course, Rodgers is not your average quarterback, but at 42, how successful can he be under constant duress?

The Texans’ offense has underperformed for most of the season, but when they’ve needed to make big plays, they have. Their 23.8 points per game rank 13th, more than enough to outpace their opponents in most contests, considering their defensive prowess. Like the Steelers, they lack a consistent rushing attack (22nd in rush yards per game), but CJ Stroud had far better protection in 2025, a group that was top-8 in sacks allowed and led to solid marks for Stroud in interceptions thrown (also among the best, 8th lowest overall) and a solid-enough 218.1 pass yards per game (14th).

Entering the postseason, few programs have been as tested as Houston. They enter with 9 straight victories, including wins over Jacksonville, Buffalo, Kansas City and the Chargers. It’s been a rockier road for Pittsburgh, but since this spread remains at the key number of “3” and we expect a lower-scoring battle, the value still lies with the home team.

Texans vs Steelers prediction: Steelers +3 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

BET +3.0 NOW WITH

Game Totals PickBest Bet

Under 39.5(-110)

Reasoning

Pittsburgh will be predictably cold, well-under freezing, for this Monday night battle. We wouldn’t have it any other way. While the Steelers’ defense hasn’t exactly played up to its standards (see 2 remarkably bad blown coverages last week against Baltimore, resulting in 2 of the easiest touchdowns you’ll ever see), it’s also clear that the talent is there. Cameron Hayward, the defense’s team captain, was stellar in key moments last Sunday night, stifling Derrick Henry runs and in Lamar Jackson’s face for most of the contest. He had 7 tackles. Others made big plays, too. While the Steelers lack consistency in their secondary, their front-seven is as formidable as any in the NFL. After starting the season well below expectations, they’ve climbed to 12th overall in sacks, accruing 3 more last week against the ultra-elusive Jackson. Houston’s offense is below average (23rd in total EPA metrics), which means the Steelers have a chance to keep this game within distance.

On Monday, they’ll have a greater onus to hold up their team, since the Steelers’ offense will be facing arguably the league’s best unit. Despite finishing the season with a perplexing performance against the Colts (they allowed a Riley Leonard-led offense to drop 30 points on 354 yards — what?), Houston’s defense has been their stalwart unit all season. Aaron Rodgers enjoyed a comfortable pocket for nearly the entire game in Week 18, an experience that will almost certainly not repeat in this Wild Card battle. The Texans are ferocious at the line of scrimmage, #1 in the NFL in pressures and 8th overall in sack percentage (8.03%). They’re also top-3 in takeaways and 2nd in turnover margin. If the Steelers’ offense, a group that’s already simplistic and limited (16th in EPA per pass, 26th in rush yards per game), wants to succeed, they’ll need to apply maximum creativity and perfect execution.

The fact that Pittsburgh is led by one of the greatest arms in NFL history gives their offense a shot, but we still don’t feel good about the matchup. Either way, both defenses are in a much better situation. This is our favorite bet of the entire Wild Card Weekend.

Texans vs Steelers best bet: Under 39.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 38.

BET u39.5 NOW WITH

Chris R. Farley

Why Trust our NFL Picks

At the conclusion of the 2025 regular season, our team of NFL handicappers accumulated 296 wins (and 4 pushes) across sides and totals picks for every game, over those 18 weeks our record speaks for itself. Our expert NFL picks have scored +78.1 units of profit so far this season.

NFL Pick	Wins	Push	Losses	Profit (betting units)
Sides (Moneyline/ATS)	151	3	116	+55.4
Totals (Over / Under)	145	1	124	+22.7
Total	296	4	240	+78.1

At Pickswise, every NFL pick is backed by years of betting experience, advanced data analysis, and a proven track record of success. Our team of handicappers studies line movement, injury reports, historical trends, and matchup stats to deliver informed recommendations — not guesses. We publish our results openly, update our predictions as new information emerges, and never hide behind vague analysis. Whether you’re looking for expert spreads, totals, props, or parlays, our mission is simple: give you honest, well-researched picks that stand up over time.

Free NFL Picks Explained

We firmly believe expert NFL picks should be free, so you’ll find our NFL picks today, and every day of the season, right here. We publish our free NFL picks for every game, at least a few days in advance of gameday, so you know who the experts are backing without missing out on the early value in the betting markets.

There’s almost an infinite way to bet on the NFL, from NFL picks against the spread, moneyline, over/under, NFL Parlays, and NFL Prop Bets, there is a bet type for every kind of football fan, so we provide NFL picks for every bet type. Some bettors like to specialize in a single particular type of NFL pick, while others like to have a diverse range and bet on anything they feel is a value pick.

Here at Pickswise, we have something for everyone. Our team of handicappers have a wealth of experience in making NFL picks across all these betting markets, leaving no stone unturned ahead of every game and every pick of the 2025 NFL season. If you’re looking for more information on NFL bet types, You can find our expert breakdown of each below.

NFL Picks Against the Spread

The most popular way to bet on the NFL is against the spread (ATS). With these wagers, you are not picking a simple winner or loser of a game. Instead, ATS betting is placing your money that Team A wins by a certain amount of points or that Team B will keep the game closer than oddsmakers expect, in other words, not lose by that same amount of points.

For Example

Philadelphia Eagles -7 – Philadelphia must win by 8 or more points to cover the spread.
Chicago Bears +7 – Chicago must win, or lose by 6 or fewer points to cover the spread.
Tie Scenario – If the game ended 27-20 to Philadelphia, the spread would be a tie, or a push and stakes would be returned.

NFL spread betting trends 2025

The team that covers the spread wins the game outright around 80% of the time.
Road teams going into games as the favorite have covered the spread at 64% so far this season
Teams coming off a blowout loss (20+ points) tend to rebound against the spread, 57% of the time.

Free NFL Over / Under Picks

Another exciting way to still get in on the NFL action is with totals wagers. In these bets you don’t take a side, but whether the two teams will combine to score over or under the total number of points that the oddsmakers have set. Already since sports betting has been legalized we’ve seen many occasions where a hail mary, missed FG or XP has cost over or unders bettors, so be prepared to be in for the long haul with your totals bets. We preview every game of the NFL season, providing insight into the game as a whole alongside expert NFL picks so you can make informed NFL totals bets.

NFL over / under betting trends

Overall, unders have proven the value pick in recent seasons, as defenses have caught up with scoring trending down since 2021
Unders bets have the edge in divisional games, landing 57% of the time. This trend gets stronger late in the season (week 13 onwards), especially in cold weather conditions.
Unders bets have landed on 58% of primetime games, as public betting tends to have a bias for the overs in these games.

Money Line NFL Picks

Ask any seasoned NFL bettor and they’ll tell you that ATS betting is exciting, but can also be frustrating. It is important to keep in mind that NFL teams only need to win by one, of course, they’d love to win by more, but they’ll change their schemes late on to secure a win, not to ensure they cover the spread. Your research could have given you the right side, but if they win by 6 instead of 7 your -6.5 bet is a loss. Therefore a lot of bettors like to keep it simple and take our expert NFL Money Line picks and bet on the NFL straight up.

NFL Moneyline betting trends

Through the first 4 weeks of the 2025 season 6+ point favourites have been strong straight up, with a 16-2-1 record
Short underdogs (+1 to +3 on the spread) win outright 43% of the time, offering better value on the moneyline than the spread
Underdogs in lower scoring road games (less than 42 total points) win outright 39% of the time, but often at better prices than this record suggests.

2025-26 NFL Schedule

This will be the 106th season in league history and is set to kick off with the NFL Kick-Off game on Thursday, September 4, hosted by the defending Super Bowl Champions Philadelphia Eagles, who take on the Dallas Cowboys. The regular season will come to a conclusion on January 4, 2026 with the NFL Playoffs scheduled to begin the following weekend on the 10th, 11th & 12th of January 2026. Super Bowl LX is scheduled for February 8, 2026, at Levi’s Stadium in San Francisco, California, the home of the 49ers.

NFL Playoff Picks

You can find our NFL picks for the 2026 Playoffs, right here, for free. Wildcard Weekend is scheduled to start January 10, upon the conclusion of week 18 our experts start to make their picks and predictions for the first round of the playoffs and after each round is concluded we prepare for the coming weekend, all the way up to the Super Bowl.

NFL Playoff Picks
NFL Wildcard Weekend Picks
NFL Divisional Round Picks
NFL Conference Championship Picks

NFL Expert Picks

Our NFL Football picks will be for every game throughout the regular season, with primetime games and the top matchups each week getting additional expert coverage which will extend to every playoff game. These NFL Football picks will come alongside analysis and the latest stats and trends to consider when betting. You can also find our NFL Best Bets for the top plays of the week and a confidence rating for our expert handicapper.

Looking for alternative football picks? then head to our College Football Picks page, where you’ll find the same level of expertise from the Pickswise handicapping team for all the headline games in the 2025 NCAA football season.

More Than Just NFL Football Picks

We also specialize in every major North American sport including the MLB, NBA, NHL, College Football, and College Basketball. Check out our site every day for some of the best bets in every major athletic contest and make sure to follow us on social media as well.

Andrew Wilsher, Managing Editor of Pickswise

Statistical Approach to NFL Picks

It’s our goal to provide you with the best NFL picks in the market. Our expert handicappers are all specially selected and assessed prior to joining the team to ensure their analysis. experience and results are among the best in the industry. Each capper will put hours of research into each pick and many have built statistical models to find their moneyline, spread and over/under picks so you don’t have to. Check out all of our cappers’ free NFL picks here every week of the season.

Andrew Wilsher, Pickswise Managing Editor

NFL Picks FAQs

How Do You Pick Against The Spread In The NFL?

To bet against the spread in the NFL you are either betting the favorite to win by x number of points or the underdog to win, or lose by fewer than x points. For example the Chiefs -7 points or the Panthers +7 points.

The number of points is set by sportsbooks and is often referred to as the line

What Is The Best Website For NFL Picks Against The Spread?

Pickswise is the best website to get free NFL picks against the spread. Our handicappers provide free insight, analysis, and data to back up which way they’re siding against the spread for every NFL game. So far this NFL season our experts have secured 86 winning NFL picks for a profit of 26 units

Where Is The Best Place To Get NFL Picks?

Pickswise is the best place to get free expert NFL picks. We have the best cappers and NFL picks on the market and you can get all of our NFL picks for free! every week.

Each pick is meticulously researched by an experienced NFL handicapper, using our own data, custom-built models, and analytical methods. Our profit this season is 26 units and rising, so don’t miss out on the best NFL picks this week.