NFL Picks

NFL picks for every game of the 2025-26 season. Our NFL expert picks are informed by key betting trends, statistical analysis and years of NFL betting experience. +26 units of profit, from 86 winning picks so far this season is the proof.

Our NFL picks this week include against the spread picks for every game in week 6, highlighted by Giants vs Eagles on Thursday night football, Chiefs vs Lions on SNF and Monday Night football, featuring both Falcons vs Bills & Commanders vs Bears

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8:15 PM ET

Thu Oct 16

Amazon Prime Video

Steelers

Bengals

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Point Spread Pick

CIN Bengals +5.5(-110)

Reasoning

At this point, no one should be surprised that Mike Tomlin is likely to complete his 19th consecutive non-losing season as the Steelers’ head coach. Through 5 weeks, Pittsburgh is 4-1 and at the top of the AFC North. It hasn’t always been pretty, which is also very Steelers-like, but the addition of Aaron Rodgers and a defense that finds a way to wreak havoc every week is usually enough to put the steel-team-town on top.

The market is now starting to respond, posting the Steelers as assertive 5.5-point favorites on the road and on a short week, in a battle that’s against a division opponent. In this case, it’s plain to see why their opponent is getting no love.

After losing Joe Burrow, the Bengals have now lost 4 straight games. In a seemingly desperate move, Cincinnati‘s front office decided to sign 40-year-old Joe Flacco last week. At Green Bay, the results were what one might expect. Flacco is confident in his arm and the Bengals’ offense was able to score more points than projected (their team total was 14.5), but in the end, it was a relatively easy 27-18 victory for the home team Packers.

With a defense that still ranks as one of the worst in the NFL (30th in opponent points, 31st in opponent yards per game), Zac Taylor’s roster must pull itself together and hope that they can get back in the win column fast. Needless to say, oddsmakers and bettors aren’t very confident that they can do that.

We would like to challenge that notion. Sure, the Steelers have had things go their way for the most part, but they’ve also played a friendlier schedule than most. They easily could have lost to the Jets on opening day, Seattle completely humbled them at home, New England turned the ball over 5 times and still almost beat them, and their last 2 wins were against backup, mistake-prone quarterbacks in a tough spot. In addition, Pittsburgh has real issues generating any production on the ground, ranked 30th in yards per rush (3.4), and they still permit far too many yards (355.6 per game, 26th).

At home, the Bengals should be hyper-motivated to save their season, and we see this as a great spot for the Steelers to regress. Let’s take the points with Cincinnati.

Steelers vs Bengals prediction: Bengals +5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.5.

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Chris R. Farley

Game Totals PickBest Bet

Over 42.5(-110)

Reasoning

At first glance, this may not seem like a pristine spot for points. After all, Joe Flacco is a Super Bowl-winning veteran quarterback, but he hasn’t exactly inspired confidence. This season he is 22nd in the NFL in passing yards, 27th in touchdowns and one of the worst in the NFL when it comes to throwing interceptions (6). Some of that is because he’s not on any explosive offenses; the other part is simply because his team is always losing and he’s always playing catch-up.

Against the Packers, Flacco played a much cleaner game, achieving his 2nd-highest completion percentage this season (64.4%) for 219 yards, 2 touchdowns and zero turnovers. He also quickly connected with Ja’Marr Chase, who snagged 10 balls for 94 yards and a brilliant late-game catch in the end zone. That’s a good sign for a Cincinnati offense that has been extremely pedestrian since their star quarterback got injured, and it’s also the 2nd straight week that they’ve exceeded scoring expectations.

On the other side, this is a majestic matchup for Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers. Rodgers, who qualifies as a bottom-third quarterback according to most ratings (a 49.2 QBR, for example) is stunted most when he’s under pressure. Fortunately for the 41-year-old, the Bengals are just 22nd in sack rate (5.14%) and permit 7.9 yards per pass (28th). In the red zone, they are completely incapable, allowing a touchdown on 71.43% of opponent drives (30th).

We like Cincinnati to keep it close but that’s only because they have the firepower on offense to do so. On both sides, the offenses are in favorable positions, especially if the Bengals can keep Flacco safe in the pocket (in his first start for the Bengals, Flacco was only sacked once against an elite Green Bay front-seven). It also helps that the home team is 4-2 to the Over and Ohio will be warm, calm, and a beautiful night for scoring.

Steelers vs Bengals best bet: Over 42.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 43.5.

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Chris R. Farley

8:15 PM ET

Thu Oct 16

Amazon Prime Video

Steelers

Bengals

View Preview

Point Spread Pick

CIN Bengals +5.5(-110)

Reasoning

At home, the Bengals should be hyper-motivated to save their season, and we see this as a great spot for the Steelers to regress. Let’s take the points with Cincinnati.

Steelers vs Bengals prediction: Bengals +5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.5.

BET +5.5 NOW WITH

Chris R. Farley

Game Totals PickBest Bet

Over 42.5(-110)

Reasoning

Steelers vs Bengals best bet: Over 42.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 43.5.

BET o42.5 NOW WITH

Chris R. Farley

Why Trust our NFL Picks

Through the first five weeks of the 2025 season our record speaks for itself. Our team of handicappers have racked up 44 winning NFL against the spread and moneyline picks (and 1 push), for +23.4 units of profit. On top of that, our NFL over/under picks have landed on 36 games, for a profit of +2.6 units. When you combine the two, our expert NFL picks have scored +26.4 units of profit so far this season.

Pick	Wins	Losses	Profit (betting units)
Sides (ATS & Moneyline)	44	33	+23.4
Over/Under	42	36	+2.6
Total	86	69	+26

At Pickswise, every NFL pick is backed by years of betting experience, advanced data analysis, and a proven track record of success. Our team of handicappers studies line movement, injury reports, historical trends, and matchup stats to deliver informed recommendations — not guesses. We publish our results openly, update our predictions as new information emerges, and never hide behind vague analysis. Whether you’re looking for expert spreads, totals, props, or parlays, our mission is simple: give you honest, well-researched picks that stand up over time.

Free NFL Picks Explained

We firmly believe expert NFL picks should be free, so you’ll find our NFL picks today, and every day of the season, right here. We publish our free NFL picks for every game, at least a few days in advance of gameday, so you know who the experts are backing without missing out on the early value in the betting markets.

There’s almost an infinite way to bet on the NFL, from NFL picks against the spread, moneyline, over/under, NFL Parlays, and NFL Prop Bets, there is a bet type for every kind of football fan, so we provide NFL picks for every bet type. Some bettors like to specialize in a single particular type of NFL pick, while others like to have a diverse range and bet on anything they feel is a value pick.

Here at Pickswise, we have something for everyone. Our team of handicappers have a wealth of experience in making NFL picks across all these betting markets, leaving no stone unturned ahead of every game and every pick of the 2025 NFL season. If you’re looking for more information on NFL bet types, You can find our expert breakdown of each below.

NFL Picks Against the Spread

The most popular way to bet on the NFL is against the spread (ATS). With these wagers, you are not picking a simple winner or loser of a game. Instead, ATS betting is placing your money that Team A wins by a certain amount of points or that Team B will keep the game closer than oddsmakers expect, in other words, not lose by that same amount of points.

For Example

Philadelphia Eagles -7 – Philadelphia must win by 8 or more points to cover the spread.
Chicago Bears +7 – Chicago must win, or lose by 6 or fewer points to cover the spread.
Tie Scenario – If the game ended 27-20 to Philadelphia, the spread would be a tie, or a push and stakes would be returned.

NFL spread betting trends 2025

The team that covers the spread wins the game outright around 80% of the time.
Road teams going into games as the favorite have covered the spread at 64% so far this season
Teams coming off a blowout loss (20+ points) tend to rebound against the spread, 57% of the time.

Free NFL Over / Under Picks

Another exciting way to still get in on the NFL action is with totals wagers. In these bets you don’t take a side, but whether the two teams will combine to score over or under the total number of points that the oddsmakers have set. Already since sports betting has been legalized we’ve seen many occasions where a hail mary, missed FG or XP has cost over or unders bettors, so be prepared to be in for the long haul with your totals bets. We preview every game of the NFL season, providing insight into the game as a whole alongside expert NFL picks so you can make informed NFL totals bets.

NFL over / under betting trends

Overall, unders have proven the value pick in recent seasons, as defenses have caught up with scoring trending down since 2021
Unders bets have the edge in divisional games, landing 57% of the time. This trend gets stronger late in the season (week 13 onwards), especially in cold weather conditions.
Unders bets have landed on 58% of primetime games, as public betting tends to have a bias for the overs in these games.

Money Line NFL Picks

Ask any seasoned NFL bettor and they’ll tell you that ATS betting is exciting, but can also be frustrating. It is important to keep in mind that NFL teams only need to win by one, of course, they’d love to win by more, but they’ll change their schemes late on to secure a win, not to ensure they cover the spread. Your research could have given you the right side, but if they win by 6 instead of 7 your -6.5 bet is a loss. Therefore a lot of bettors like to keep it simple and take our expert NFL Money Line picks and bet on the NFL straight up.

NFL Moneyline betting trends

Through the first 4 weeks of the 2025 season 6+ point favourites have been strong straight up, with a 16-2-1 record
Short underdogs (+1 to +3 on the spread) win outright 43% of the time, offering better value on the moneyline than the spread
Underdogs in lower scoring road games (less than 42 total points) win outright 39% of the time, but often at better prices than this record suggests.

2025-26 NFL Schedule

This will be the 106th season in league history and is set to kick off with the NFL Kick-Off game on Thursday, September 4, hosted by the defending Super Bowl Champions Philadelphia Eagles, who take on the Dallas Cowboys. The regular season will come to a conclusion on January 4, 2026 with the NFL Playoffs scheduled to begin the following weekend on the 10th, 11th & 12th of January 2026. Super Bowl LX is scheduled for February 8, 2026, at Levi’s Stadium in San Francisco, California, the home of the 49ers.

NFL Playoff Picks

You can find our NFL picks for the 2026 Playoffs, right here, for free. Wildcard Weekend is scheduled to start January 10, upon the conclusion of week 18 our experts start to make their picks and predictions for the first round of the playoffs and after each round is concluded we prepare for the coming weekend, all the way up to the Super Bowl.

NFL Playoff Picks
NFL Wildcard Weekend Picks
NFL Divisional Round Picks
NFL Conference Championship Picks

NFL Expert Picks

Our NFL Football picks will be for every game throughout the regular season, with primetime games and the top matchups each week getting additional expert coverage which will extend to every playoff game. These NFL Football picks will come alongside analysis and the latest stats and trends to consider when betting. You can also find our NFL Best Bets for the top plays of the week and a confidence rating for our expert handicapper.

Looking for alternative football picks? then head to our College Football Picks page, where you’ll find the same level of expertise from the Pickswise handicapping team for all the headline games in the 2025 NCAA football season.

More Than Just NFL Football Picks

We also specialize in every major North American sport including the MLB, NBA, NHL, College Football, and College Basketball. Check out our site every day for some of the best bets in every major athletic contest and make sure to follow us on social media as well.

Andrew Wilsher, Managing Editor of Pickswise

Statistical Approach to NFL Picks

It’s our goal to provide you with the best NFL picks in the market. Our expert handicappers are all specially selected and assessed prior to joining the team to ensure their analysis. experience and results are among the best in the industry. Each capper will put hours of research into each pick and many have built statistical models to find their moneyline, spread and over/under picks so you don’t have to. Check out all of our cappers’ free NFL picks here every week of the season.

Andrew Wilsher, Pickswise Managing Editor

NFL Picks FAQs

How Do You Pick Against The Spread In The NFL?

To bet against the spread in the NFL you are either betting the favorite to win by x number of points or the underdog to win, or lose by fewer than x points. For example the Chiefs -7 points or the Panthers +7 points.

The number of points is set by sportsbooks and is often referred to as the line

What Is The Best Website For NFL Picks Against The Spread?

Pickswise is the best website to get free NFL picks against the spread. Our handicappers provide free insight, analysis, and data to back up which way they’re siding against the spread for every NFL game. So far this NFL season our experts have secured 86 winning NFL picks for a profit of 26 units

Where Is The Best Place To Get NFL Picks?

Pickswise is the best place to get free expert NFL picks. We have the best cappers and NFL picks on the market and you can get all of our NFL picks for free! every week.

Each pick is meticulously researched by an experienced NFL handicapper, using our own data, custom-built models, and analytical methods. Our profit this season is 26 units and rising, so don’t miss out on the best NFL picks this week.