Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 09/21/25

It will be a showdown in the NFC South when the Atlanta Falcons visit the Carolina Panthers on Sunday afternoon. Although Atlanta is 1-1 and looks like the superior football team to winless Carolina, giving 5.5 points on the road in a divisional game seems excessive. As such, my Falcons vs Panthers pick is the home team to cover. Atlanta may be a bit overrated after blasting a banged-up Minnesota squad 22-6 in Week 2. JJ McCarthy doesn’t look close to being ready to be a full-time starting quarterback in the NFL and he was playing behind an offense that is in shambles, so it’s no surprise that the Vikings made the Falcons’ defense look good. Atlanta’s offense was unspectacular, especially in the red zone. It settled for 5 field goals and did not find the end zone until Minnesota gave up a late touchdown on purpose because it needed the ball back.

There is no denying that the Panthers have not looked good, losing to the Jaguars and Cardinals. However, both of those setbacks were on the road and Carolina at least managed to be competitive during a 27-22 setback at Arizona this past weekend. Bryce Young threw for 328 yards with 3 touchdowns and 1 interception, a big improvement from Week 1. The former Heisman Trophy winner faced the Falcons just once last year and torched them for 254 yards with 3 TDs and no INTs. Now he goes up against an Atlanta secondary that is missing cornerback AJ Terrell due to a hamstring injury. These division-rivalry matchups are generally closer than expected, and this one will probably be no exception.

Falcons vs Panthers prediction: Panthers +5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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My favorite Falcons vs Panthers pick is Over 43.5. Aside from some slight red-zone issues, Michael Penix Jr. has looked very comfortable under center for Atlanta. He already has a great rapport with tight end Kyle Pitts, while receivers Drake London and Darnell Mooney are good to go for Sunday after battling some minor injuries. Bijan Robinson looks like a top-3 running back in the league after torching Minnesota for 143 rushing yards in addition to 25 more yards on 3 receptions. Robinson and company now face a Carolina defense that was dead last in the entire NFL by a country mile in run defense last season (179.8 yards per game allowed). It is #26 in that department through 2 weeks of the 2025 campaign.

It is true that the Falcons’ defense looked good last weekend, but it was a different story against a much more capable quarterback in Tampa Bay’s Baker Mayfield in the season opener. Atlanta came up with just 1 sack and watched Mayfield toss 3 scoring strikes without getting picked off. Young may not be Mayfield, but he restored some confidence with last week’s performance and he has enjoyed success against Atlanta in the past. Let’s also not forget what happened when these 2 division rivals collided in 2024 — the scores were 38-20 and 44-38 in overtime. This simply is not a high enough number for this matchup.

Falcons vs Panthers prediction: Over 43.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to 44.5.

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