Atlanta Falcons vs Minnesota Vikings Prediction, Odds and SNF Picks for Today, 09/14/25

Entering the 4th quarter of Monday Night Football in the Week 1, it felt obvious that the 2025 season would be far more challenging for Kevin O’Connell and his Minnesota Vikings. Then the 4th quarter happened. After a terrible pick-six and just 71 yards of offense through the first 3 periods, rookie quarterback JJ McCarthy and the Vikings started to soar. Three touchdown drives on 183 yards of offense later, and the Vikings were closing out a contest that seemed like a sure-fire loss 15 minutes prior.

Some may take this rough opening to mean that it will be a clunky beginning for the JJ McCarthy era in Minnesota. We think otherwise. Firstly, Minnesota’s defense was flying around the ball all game, keeping the Bears offense out of scoring distance while pressuring Caleb Williams at an incessant pace. Chicago had a good game plan with new coach Ben Johnson steering the ship, but in the end, it was the Minnesota defense that held the Bears to just 7 points in the final quarter. They also limited the Bears to only 3-12 third-down conversions in the contest. 

Regardless of Minnesota’s flaws in Week 1, coach O’Connell clearly runs a high-level organization, and we believe in the way he solves problems and adjusts during challenging in-game moments. We can’t say the same about the Falcons, at least not yet. To their credit, Michael Penix Jr. and the offense came out on fire, a touchdown in just 3 plays off a scintillating screen pass to Bijan Robinson. But after that, they sputtered, just 6 points in quarters 2 and 3, until urgency returned in the 4th quarter. In general, their execution was poor, just 5-16 on 3rd-down conversions and 2 appearances in the red zone. Production-wise they outplayed the Bucs, permitting 358 to just 260 yards for Tampa, but their defense couldn’t stymie their rival when it needed to, either.

The Falcons have obvious potential. Their offense is extremely talented, their new quarterback has clear arm talent, and their defense showed improvement in Week 1. But as a franchise, they have plenty of room to grow, and we trust Kevin O’Connell and a superior, rejuvenated Vikings roster to get it done at home.

Falcons vs Vikings prediction: Vikings -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.5.

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The Falcons couldn’t translate 317 yards into enough points to win their game against the Bucs last week, and it won’t be an easy road again on Sunday Night Football. At the same time, there’s something to be said about redemption. When an 0-1 team approaches their next battle, particularly against a 1-0 team, there’s usually an obvious difference in motivation. We’re not entirely sure if that will be the case against the Vikings, a program that’s as well coached and buttoned up as any in the NFL, but it makes us feel better about the Falcons’ offensive potential.

Sure, the Vikings’ defense is overflowing with talent and they’re an aggressive group, led by one of the most feared defensive coordinators in the NFL. But the Bears, despite their many mistakes, still found a way to produce last weekend (317 yards). Atlanta suffered through the same execution issues as the Bears, failing to translate 3rd-down conversions and therefore points after long drives, but that will be a point of emphasis in practice and their play-calling choices this weekend. In a dome, an environment they’re adapted to already, a speedy, explosive Atlanta offense can get to 20 points against any resistance.

On the other side, we love the chances that JJ McCarthy and the Vikings’ offense picks up right where they left off. At just 22 years old, McCarthy showed his resilience and maturity in Week 1, never giving up on the task at hand and showing confidence in his coach’s tutelage. In plain sight, we witnessed the magic that can happen when a coach and quarterback are on the same page. The result was a 27-point outing, with one big play after another in the quarter that mattered most. 

McCarthy’s ability to settle down and trust his coach’s process will only elevate his chances of succeeding again in his 2nd start, especially at home with a friendly crowd behind him. And while Atlanta’s offense has some kinks to work through, they have the talent and speed to bait the Vikings’ aggressive offense into mistakes. We love an over.

Falcons vs Vikings best bet: Over 44.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 45.5.

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