Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills Prediction, Odds and SNF Picks for Sunday, 09/07/25

It doesn’t get more entertaining than a Week 1 battle at Orchard Park between the Ravens and Bills. Two of the NFL’s most exciting quarterbacks will battle again, their 4th regular-season standoff (Lamar leads the series, 3-1, while Allen leads their playoff series 2-0). The game is predictably the highest total of the Week 1 slate, meaning oddsmakers expect both offenses to be as explosive as ever. Coincidentally, the Ravens and Bills also share the top-two slots in our power ratings, both programs we forecast to face off again in the AFC Playoffs, perhaps 2 weeks before the Super Bowl. In any case, both outfits benefit from grandeur additions to their rosters entering Week 1. 

Buffalo signed defensive end Joey Bosa to an already talented defensive line, and while Amari Cooper is gone, they secured playmaker Joshua Palmer (584 yards on 15 yards per catch with LAC last season). They also re-signed James Cook, keeping continuity in support of an outstanding 2024 result (136.7 rush yards per game, 9th overall).

The Ravens brought in Jaire Alexander, making their secondary arguably the most talented in the NFL, and they recycle a defense that was one of the best (1st in opponent yards per carry/game, 8th in opponent quarterback percentage). The Ravens have no issue at the talent positions and were the league’s most prolific running team last season, and they also added veteran wideout DeAndre Hopkins, who has defied expectations even at 33. 

Buffalo is a short favorite merely because they’re at home, but the spread suggests oddsmakers consider Baltimore as the more talented roster (home field advantage typically grants 2-3 points of line value, more likely 3 points at Orchard Park). The Ravens hammered the Bills 35-10 at home last season in Week 4, but then lost at Buffalo in the AFC Divisional Round last January (27-25). It’s the playoff loss that stands out more, since it was less than 8 months ago and the Bills were at home, but that doesn’t mean it’ll be the same result. The Ravens have revenge on their minds, and they have more continuity and depth on offense. Taking Baltimore even as a short underdog presents far more value.

Ravens vs Bills prediction: Ravens +1.5 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to PK.

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One of last year’s games went over this listed total and the other did not, but the latter was more because of Buffalo’s mistakes. Early last season, the Bills had yet to face an exceptional defense until Week 4. At the same juncture, Baltimore experienced a disgusting loss at home to the Raiders in Week 2, so they vowed improvement in their 2nd showing in Charm City. It was the wrong place, wrong time for a Bills’ offense that wasn’t ready for the Ravens’ energy.

In their playoff battle at Orchard Park, the Bills’ offense was the freight train we’re used to seeing, their game-to-game norm. Buffalo was one of the most explosive and productive offenses in the NFL in 2024, 2nd in points per game and points per play. Led by the incomparable Josh Allen, the Bills’ offense operates like a bowling ball, built off a dynamic running attack and a leader who can adjust on the fly and run or pass his way to first downs. It’s a terribly difficult equation for most defenses to figure out, particularly in Week 1 of the NFL season. In short, we believe offensive coordinator Joe Brady will have the Bills’ offense in top form very quickly.

Todd Monken returns in his 3rd year as the Ravens’ playcaller, a group that was either first or third in nearly every major offensive category. They also nearly doubled the Bills in total yards in both contests last season. Meanwhile, Buffalo is banged up at linebacker and two of their most talented cornerbacks are down; Tre’Davious White is trending towards out and first-round draft pick Maxwell Hairston is already on the injured reserve. 

We get it, it seems a little too predictable, but we’re not overthinking this one.

Ravens vs Bills pick: Over 50.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 51.

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