Buffalo Bills vs Atlanta Falcons Prediction, Odds and MNF Picks for Monday, 10/13/25

In one of the more shocking results of Week 5, the Bills were upset by the Patriots at home. In truth, Buffalo has been shaky for the last 3 weeks, playing down to their competition and at times seemingly playing with their food. After a stunning comeback victory in Week 1 against Baltimore, it’s as if the Bills assumed autopilot was good enough, gaining an average of 360 yards and scoring 82 points during that span. For most teams, those marks would indicate a rousing success, but for the Bills, it’s come against 2 bottom-feeder outfits (Miami and New Orleans) and an up-and-comer in the Patriots, who are clearly better than the market indicated in Week 5. They’ve only averaged a +6-point differential the past 3 weeks, too. In any case, Buffalo may need a trip out of their comfort zone to rattle back into top-form, which is exactly what they’ll get in Week 6. When at their best, the Bills are still among the top-3 programs in the NFL. One loss doesn’t change that. 

The Falcons are coming off a bye week, which is always a curious intangible this early in the season. In Week 4, we saw the good side of the Falcons, who were able to contain and stay ahead of the Commanders, although Washington fared well considering they started Marcus Mariota in Jayden Daniels’ absence (24 points, 291 yards). Somehow, the Falcons are the #1 defense in the NFL in total yards allowed (244), but there’s an asterisk attached to that data point due to their poor competition in the first 4 weeks. 

Offensively, the Falcons have played well in 3 out of 4 contests. In their last showing, a 34-point, 434-yard display against a good Commanders’ defense, we saw their best offensive form. Like many teams, Atlanta is at their apex when their rushing attack is successful. Through 4 weeks, they run more than 26 teams in the league (48.88%), and the duo of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier is as good as any in the NFL (136.5 yards per game, 6th). Buffalo’s defense is top-5 against opposing quarterbacks, allowing just 6.3 yards per pass and sacking the opposing quarterback on 8.9% of plays. But against the run they’ve had issues, ranking 30th in opponent yards per carry (5.6). Atlanta’s has a plus matchup offensively, off an extra week of rest. 

It’s hard not to love the Bills against anyone simply because they lost in Week 5. They’ve only lost 2 games in a row an average of 1 time each season for the past 3 years. Still, since we’re getting over the key number of 3 and the Falcons are off a bye, there’s no way I can’t like the Falcons.

Bills vs Falcons prediction: Falcons +3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 3.

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