Carolina Panthers vs Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 09/07/25

The Jacksonville Jaguars have plenty of excitement coming off a dreadful 4-13 season. The Jags traded up to the 2nd pick in the NFL Draft to grab Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter to help improve both sides of the ball. Past drafting Hunter, the Jags hired the Buccaneers’ offensive coordinator Liam Coen to fix an offense that averaged 306 yards per game in 2024. It also didn’t help that quarterback Trevor Lawrence missed the final 5 games with a shoulder injury.

The Carolina Panthers started last season at 1-7, but played better down the stretch with a 4-5 record in the final 9 games. Quarterback Bryce Young stepped up by throwing seven touchdown passes in the last 3 games, which included overtime victories over the Cardinals and Falcons. Carolina owns a dreadful 2-15 record in its last 17 road games since the start of the 2023 season, as the Panthers were shut out in their previous trip to Jacksonville 2 seasons ago, 26-0.

The Jaguars have lost their last 2 home season openers, falling to the Chiefs in 2023 and the Browns last season. One historical note on Jacksonville’s side is since 2017, is that home favorites with a new head coach are 5-0 straight up and against the spread. Both these teams can only get better on the defensive side. Last season, Jacksonville ranked 31st in the league in defense, allowing 389.9 yards a game. The only team worse defensively than the Jags in 2024 were the Panthers, who yielded 404.5 yards a contest.

Lawrence posted a solid 65.1% completion rate at home, compared to 57% on the road in 2024. His lowest yardage total in any game last season that he played from start to finish came in Week 1 against Miami, closing with 162 yards. Young has not put together strong season openers in his first 2 seasons. The 2022 Heisman Trophy winner threw for 146 yards in an opening week loss at Atlanta in 2023, followed by 161 yards in last season’s blowout defeat at New Orleans. Carolina finished last season by covering 7 of its final 9 games. However, all 7 of those ATS wins came as an underdog of 5.5 points or more. Look for Jacksonville to come out strong in Hunter’s debut and defeat Carolina.

Panthers vs Jaguars prediction: Jags -3.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.

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Both Carolina and Jacksonville owned the worst 2 defenses in the NFL last season, but how did that affect their totals? The Panthers hit the Over in 13 of 17 games, including a 6-2 Over mark on the road. 4 of the early Overs came on totals of 42 or less, but Carolina also cashed the Over in its final 2 road games at Tampa Bay and Atlanta on 48 totals. Jacksonville finished 9-8 to the Over in 2024, but went 4-3 to the Under in 7 true home games. On 8 occasions, the Jaguars were limited to 17 points or less, although only 2 of those came at EverBank Stadium. In the 4 games as a favorite, the Jags sailed over the total, including allowing at least 34 points twice.

Young didn’t throw a touchdown pass in his first 3 road games of 2024, but the former University of Alabama star compiled 8 touchdown passes in his final 4 road starts. Carolina yielded more than 200 rushing yards in each of the final 6 games last season, as the Panthers ranked last in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game at 179.8. In 6 of 9 road games, the Panthers were limited to 16 points or less. In the 2 games that Carolina busted out on the road, they scored 36 at Las Vegas and 44 points at Atlanta, both victories. Carolina hasn’t proven to be a consistent scoring threat on the road and that could change this season, but I’m not ready to trust them.

On the other side, both teams were terrible on the defensive end of the ball, but the quarterback play is still shaky and the Jaguars will be figuring out how to utilize top pick Travis Hunter effectively. Let’s take the Under on this game with both teams expected to finish in the low 20s.

Panthers vs Jaguars pick: Under 47 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 46.5.

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