Carolina Panthers vs New England Patriots Prediction, Odds and Picks for Sunday, 09/28/25

There were plenty of wacky results in Week 3 of the NFL season and both of these teams are coming up games that have a very different feeling when looking at the box score compared to the final score. On one side, Carolina dominated the Falcons en route to a 30-0 shutout victory. However, the box score in that game shows that the final result was a touch misleading, as Carolina was actually outgained by over 100 yards, averaged just 4 yards per play and was just 3-of-11 on third downs. What really drove the victory was turnovers, with the Panthers benefiting from a trio of Falcons turnovers (including a pick-6) to race out to a big lead early on.

Speaking of turnovers, that happened to be New England’s downfall a week ago, as the Patriots turned the ball over 5 times in a 7-point loss to the Steelers. Of those 5 turnovers, 4 of them were fumbles, including a sequence where running back Rhamondre Stevenson fumbled at the Steelers goal line prior to crossing the plain and tying the game. Setting aside those giveaways, it was clear that the Patriots were the better team on a per play basis, with New England outgaining Pittsburgh by 163 yards, registering over 5 yards per play to the Steelers 4.1 and going 10-of-18 on 3rd and 4th down. Everything that could go wrong did go wrong a week ago, but the down-to-down metrics in that game confirm that New England is actually a top 12-15 offense, with Drake Maye and the Patriots sitting inside the top 12 in success rate and EPA per play in non-garbage time action. It would be reasonable to assume that New England doesn’t fumble the ball 4 more times this week, especially against a Carolina defense that is nothing to write home about. I’m expecting another solid game from Maye and hopefully the Patriots lean more on TreVeyon Henderson out of the backfield instead of the fumble-prone Stevenson. I’ll back New England to get the job done at home, so let’s back the Patriots at anything under 6.

Panthers vs Patriots prediction: Patriots -4.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to -5.5

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This is a game where both offenses should see a bit more success than what the market is projecting. On the New England side, I mentioned that the down-to-down metrics through the first 3 weeks indicate that Josh McDaniels’ offense is actually a top 12-15 unit in football, with Maye and the Patriots sitting inside the top 12 in success rate and EPA per play in non-garbage time action this season. Conversely, the Panthers defense is not one that generally puts themselves in position to play lower-scoring games, as Carolina surrendered a combined 53 points to the likes of Jacksonville and Arizona in Weeks 1 and 2. As for the New England’s defense, there are some promising signs there, but this is still a unit that could use a bit more talent on the back end, especially without the services of Christian Gonzalez. With that in mind, I’ll take the over and look for a game in the mid 20s on Sunday.

Over 43 available at time of publishing. Playable to 43.5