Chicago Bears vs Washington Commanders Prediction, Odds and MNF Picks for Monday, 10/13/25

From our perspective, the most impressive win of Week 5 was by the Commanders. Last season, the Chargers never lost back-to-back games. Coming off a loss in Week 4, at home and up 10-0 early on Washington, another win seemed inevitable. Jayden Daniels had other plans.

In 2024, Daniels was the talk of the NFL, a quarterback who instantly turned around the DC franchise and had them competing in an NFC Championship game in his first season. Through the first 4 weeks, the Commanders haven’t been quite as consistent, partially because of Daniels’ knee sprain that held him out for 2 games. But Daniels’ return to the west coast, in his hometown of all places, was another reminder of how special he still is (270 total yards and a touchdown, no turnovers). The 2nd-year pro made one big play after another, all while wearing a knee brace. Even better, the Commanders’ defense was stout throughout the contest, holding the home-team Chargers to 0 points through the final 3 quarters. They also held the Chargers to their worst offensive performance of the season; just 18 first downs on 5.2 yards per play.

Back home, that sort of win can catalyze a Washington program that in weeks 1-4 didn’t seem to carry last year’s momentum into this season. They’ll need it against a Bears’ team that’s starting to find its stride.

Chicago is coming off a bye week. Leading into their bye, we were mostly impressed. Caleb Williams is taking care of the ball (8 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions) and the Bears’ offense is starting to find a rhythm, even if it relies on Caleb’s athletic ability to constantly avoid sacks and extend plays. 

It’s the Bears’ defense that’s worrisome. No team allows more explosive plays, they’ve permitted 29.3 points per game, and PFF ranks them in the bottom 5 in overall effectiveness. Their lack of a pass-rush (they’re 27th in sack rate) is especially an issue; Daniels is a master of his craft, even under duress – when he has time to create, he’s almost impossible to stop. Unless the Bears magically reinvent their resistance in 2 weeks, at home Daniels and the Commanders are back in top form and we think that’s too much for the visitors.

Bears vs Commanders prediction: Commanders -4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 5.5.

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