HomeNFLNFL PredictionsCincinnati Bengals vs Denver Broncos Prediction, Odds and MNF Picks

Cincinnati Bengals vs Denver Broncos Prediction, Odds and MNF Picks for Monday, 09/29/25

Updated: 9:52 AM ET Sep 29, 2025

Empower Field at Mile HighABC

2-1

Bengals

8:15 PM ETYesterday

1-2

Broncos

Bengals vs Broncos Guest Expert Predictions

Point Spread Pick

DEN Broncos -7.0(-120)

Reasoning

For the 2nd straight week, Bo Nix and the Broncos fell short in a close game. In fact, all 3 of Denver’s opening contests have ended by a 1-score margin or less, averaging just a 4-point margin. On both sides of the ball, they’ve had their flaws, but it’s the offense that’s been a real disappointment so far. Bo Nix hasn’t settled in yet, ranked 28th in yards per pass (5.6) with just a 64.21% completion percentage. In some statistics, like QBR (41.8, tied for 25th), he’s one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL. Pro Football Focus grades Nix 45th out of 47 who have played under center.

Denver’s running game has been better, generating 5.2 yards per carry (5th) and 129 rush yards per game (8th), and their defense is still one of the top units in the NFL (especially in the red-zone, where they rank 2nd in touchdowns allowed). Fortunately, Nix and the offense will face one of the worst defenses in the NFL in Week 4.

Cincinnati’s season is already in question thanks to yet another debilitating injury to their star quarterback, Joe Burrow, but they also don’t have the defense to pick up the pieces. After mostly looking anemic, Minnesota looked like a Super Bowl contender in Week 3, posting 352 yards and 48 points on the Bengals. Cincinnati’s offensive marks were even more concerning, earning just 3.3 yards per play, 12 first downs, and just 179 total yards. Jake Browning just doesn’t do well under pressure, hoisting up 2 more bad interceptions (he had 3 at Jacksonville the week prior, in just 1 half) and failing to find a rhythm for the entirety of the game. And the Cincinnati run-game has been virtually non-existent, gaining just 53 yards last Sunday.

Another tough road spot is exactly what the Bengals don’t need after a performance that poor, but that’s exactly what they’ll get. Cincinnati must also battle one of the NFL’s best pass-rushes, a group that already ranks 4th through 3 weeks (they earn a sack on 9.92% of plays). Nothing seems to be in the road team’s favor in this one.

Bengals vs Broncos: Broncos -7 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to 8.

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Chris R. Farley

Game Totals Pick

Over 44.0(-110)

Reasoning

Jake Browning is sure to be under duress again in Week 4, although there are reasons to believe that positive regression can happen, at least in some respects. The Broncos are a top-tier defense that sacks the quarterback plenty, but through 3 games they’ve allowed 6.7 yards per pass and 212.7 pass yards per game. Eventually, teams have managed to score 21.3 points per game and stacked up 327.3 yards per game against their resistance, too. Of course, the Broncos have also played 2 above-average offenses the last 2 weeks.

The Bengals are not an above-average offense at this point, but they still have above-average talent. Their wide receiving corps is one of the best in the NFL, and if Browning can get some protection, he throws a clean ball and shows good operational IQ in the Bengals’ system. We’re not sure if we’ll ever see an improvement to their running attack, but a Denver defense that permits 114.7 rush yards per game might grant them some opportunities.

On the other side, Denver’s offense has been mostly terrible, particularly through the air, but we’ve seen Bo Nix light up inferior defenses all of last season. That was especially true at home. Against the Raiders, Panthers, Falcons, Browns and Colts, Nix and the offense averaged 34.4 points per game in 2024. There’s a reason the Broncos were a preseason darling for so many analysts, and this is a fabulous spot for regression. Even if both quarterbacks marginally regress to the positive, this total is too low.

Bengals vs Broncos pick: Over 44 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 45.

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Chris R. Farley

Chris Farley

Published: 9:52 AM ET September 29, 2025

Show Bio

Chris is a writer for Pickswise who’s been handicapping the NFL since 2011. He began his public betting career as a betting writer, and has since become a contributing analyst for various betting sites and shows. He was a 5th place winner ($114k) in the 2021 NFL Circa Millions contest, and he owns his own sports betting podcast, Laying the Points. Chris approaches handicapping using psychosocial principles and nuanced market analysis. The NFL and NBA are his favorite and most profitable sports.

@FarleyBets

Related game props

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick

T. Higgins (CIN) to score a TD(+275)

Reasoning

Positive regression is coming from the Bengals’ end — particularly on offense. There’s too much talent on the outside for potential scoring opportunities. Tee Higgins and company were down 34-3 at halftime versus the Vikings last week, thanks to Jake Browning throwing 2 pick-6s. The offense never got into a flow, including Higgins reeling in just one ball for 15 yards. The opponent only gets tougher on Monday Night versus the Broncos, but if Browning can get time to throw in the pocket and the talented offense finds a groove, I’m willing to back Higgins at +275 to find the end zone.

Cincinnati Bengals vs Denver Broncos Prediction, Odds and MNF Picks for Monday, 09/29/25

Bengals vs Broncos Guest Expert Predictions

Chris Farley

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