Dallas Cowboys vs New York Jets Prediction, Odds and Picks for Sunday, 10/05/25

The New York Jets are still in search of their first victory in this 2025 NFL season as they head into a home game against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 5 on Sunday afternoon. Mainly because of how New York has looked so far, my Cowboys vs Jets pick is for the visitors to win and cover. It’s hard to even describe how bad the Jets were on Monday night against the Miami Dolphins. Head coach Aaron Glenn’s squad committed a ridiculous 13 penalties for 101 yards and turned the ball over 3 times (all 3 with fumbles). It was a comedy of errors against an opponent that was also winless going into Week 4.

Now the Jets have to face a much tougher opponent and they are playing on a short week. Yes, they have home-field advantage — but it’s not like the Jets have been good even in East Rutherford and the Cowboys have actually been better on the road than they have been in Dallas for the most part in recent seasons. This sets up very well for the ‘Boys, who are coming off an impressive 40-40 tie against the high-powered Green Bay Packers last weekend. Dallas may not play much defense with Micah Parsons no longer roaming the field for them, but Dak Prescott is performing at an MVP level so far this year. Prescott has thrown for 1,119 yards and 6 touchdowns; Dallas has already reached the 40-point mark twice in 2025. In Week 5, the Cowboys meet an opponent that has not forced a single turnover this entire season. I don’t think the Jets can keep up in a track meet.

Dallas Cowboys vs New York Jets prediction: Cowboys -2.5 (-112) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Cowboys have scored 114 points through 4 weeks; the Jets have allowed at least 27 in all 4 of their outings — including 34 to the Pittsburgh Steelers, who are by no means as dynamic on offense as the Cowboys. This is not a good spot for Glenn’s struggling defense with less than a full week of preparation to face one of the best offenses in football. The reality is that Dallas could get somewhat close to this number by itself, so my Cowboys vs Jets pick is Over 46.5.

CeeDee Lamb being sidelined obviously doesn’t help, but new Cowboys receiver George Pickens is picking up the slack. The Georgia product has already racked up 300 yards this season and he has scored 4 touchdowns in the past 3 games. For the Jets, Justin Fields is actually playing solid football despite his team’s record. In 3 games (2 starts), Fields has accounted for 5 touchdowns (3 rushing, 2 passing) while turning the ball over just once with a fumble against Miami. Garrett Wilson has 16 catches on 21 targets in the past 2 outings and has scored 3 TDs in 2025. Getting him involved has been crucial for New York, and that should happen again this week against a very generous Cowboys defense.

Dallas Cowboys vs New York Jets prediction: Over 46.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 47.

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