Detroit Lions vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction, Odds and SNF Picks for Today, 10/12/25

2 seasons ago after the Chiefs’ most recent Super Bowl win, the Lions surprised the masses in Week 1 and defeated Kansas City at Arrowhead, spoiling the champs’ party. 5 weeks into the season, the visitors are clearly the better team in this Sunday night battle. After a poor performance in the opener, the Lions have roared back with 4 straight wins, looking exactly like the top NFC program we’ve seen the last 2 seasons.

Defensively, Detroit still has some issues. In general, they qualify as an average unit, 17th in permitted points per game (22.4), 8th in yards per game allowed (298.8), and 25th in red-zone scoring percentage (TDs only, 66.67%). On the plus side, they’ve been mostly stout against the run, qualifying as a top-11 unit, and they’ve been getting to the quarterback thanks to the resurgence of defensive MVP candidate Aidan Hutchinson. One area of concern entering Sunday night is their secondary. They’ll be without starting cornerbacks Terrion Arnold and DJ Reed, and their depth is shallow.

This game will be far more interesting when Detroit’s offense, which leads the league averaging 34.8 points per game, is battling Kansas City’s defense. Steve Spagnuolo is arguably the best defensive coordinator in the NFL, and after the Chiefs’ loss last week, we imagine they’ll be fired up with a fantastic game plan at home. Meanwhile, Jared Goff leads the NFL in pass completion percentage (75.34%), and Detroit is the league’s most explosive offense (1st in points per play). The Chiefs’ offensive struggles are well-known through 5 weeks, a shell of the operation they used to be. They gain plenty (361 yards per game, top-8), but they’ve struggled to get the ball into the painted area (16th in the red-zone) and Mahomes airs a pedestrian 6.9 yards per pass (20th). Last week, they capitulated in the red zone again, this time via a Mahomes interception, and it ended up costing Kansas City the game. Not to mention, all-time tight end Travis Kelce still doesn’t look like himself, ranking 30th or worse among all tight ends.

At home and especially after a loss, this is usually where the Chiefs do their best work (14-4 straight up after a loss since the start of last season). But we’d be remiss to ignore how buttoned up Detroit is every single week, no matter the circumstances, and right now they’re in better form.

Lions vs Chiefs prediction: Lions +2.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 1.5.

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