Green Bay Packers vs Cleveland Browns Prediction, Odds and Picks for Sunday, 09/21/25

With so many games on the NFL Week 3 card, this is not a game that will be top of mind for many bettors. However, this is a spot where the home underdog might be barking a bit more than people think on Sunday. In fact, while they were expected to be among the worst teams in football heading into the campaign, the Browns have honestly put together a couple of pretty decent data points through the first 2 weeks.

For starters, Cleveland should’ve beaten the Bengals to open the campaign, as its defense had Joe Burrow and Cincinnati’s offense totally bottled up throughout that contest. A week ago, I was all over the Ravens to win as double-digit home favorites, and while Baltimore did cover the number in that game, don’t be fooled by that final score. Baltimore only finished with 241 yards in that game and Derrick Henry only tallied 23 yards on the ground. Baltimore was only able to score via explosive plays and the Ravens tacked on a few scores late to make the game look like a blowout. The Browns defense appears to be an elite unit and should be able to at least somewhat bottle up Jordan Love and a Packers offense that has looked fantastic to this point, but might be a bit overrated considering the underwhelming defenses that they’ve faced to this point.

On the other side of things, Green Bay has certainly established itself as one of the premier teams in football following a pair of dominant victories over Detroit and Washington. However, the Packers offensive line injuries — including right tackle Zach Tom — do give me real pause this week when evaluating if Green Bay can be successful on the ground against a stout Browns defensive front. The addition of Micah Parsons has certainly been a shot in the arm for this Packers defense, and while I like Jeff Hafley’s unit from a long-term perspective, this is a spot where I’ll trust the ground game for Cleveland and hope Joe Flacco doesn’t make too many critical mistakes on Sunday.

Packers vs Browns prediction: Browns +8.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 7.5

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This is a very correlated play between the underdog and the under in this game, and it all comes down to my faith in each of these defenses. As previously mentioned, the Browns completely took the Bengals offense out of the game and were able to follow that up with a solid performance for the vast majority of the game against the Ravens. Cleveland’s run defense should be able to bottle up Green Bay on the ground, especially with the injuries on the Packers offensive line, which should set the tone for this game. On the other side, the Browns offense has struggled mightily to say the least, and it’s hard to imagine that Cleveland won’t want to lean into its run game in an effort to keep things close at home. I’ll back the under in this one.

Under 41.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 41.