Green Bay Packers vs Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction, Odds and SNF Picks for Sunday, 10/26/25

Normally we would look to fade defense in a battle like this. At face value, this is Green Bay’s current stud-quarterback against their former stud quarterback, so a battle of two elite arms slicing and dicing the opposing resistance is the built-in narrative that comes with these clashes. We don’t see that happening in this case. Firstly, while the Green Bay defense has had its head-scratching moments, they play well when they’re in a good spot and/or they’re motivated. Weeks 1 and 2 were prime examples of that, squashing last year’s NFC championship game contestants in consecutive matches. Last week they turned up the heat on Jacoby Brissett and the Cardinals when they needed to, led by a monstrous performance from Micah Parsons (three sacks, four tackles for a loss, five QB-hits). Pro Football Focus ranks Parsons as easily the best edge defender in the NFL, while Rashan Gary ranks top-11 against the run and others on their front-seven grade highly. We expect them to come after Rodgers and his colleagues.

The Steelers will look to do the same. Following a startling Week 7 upset where Joe Flacco played like a 25 year old, Pittsburgh’s defense was beyond humbled, forfeiting 33 points and 47 points to a Bengals’ offense that was anemic leading into that battle. The duo of Cameron Hayward and TJ Watt will look to avenge that failure from a week ago, and we like how they match-up against a Packers’ offense that hasn’t been explosive on the ground (4 yards per carry, 22nd) and uses their quarterback fewer than 29 other teams (30th in pass-play percentage). The Steelers, who are top-6 in sack-rate (8.49%) can expose a Green Bay front that’s very average (13th in sacks allowed). Against the only elite front-seven they faced this season (CLE), Love was sacked five times. Pittsburgh is forecasted to be chilly with a chance of rain; perfect weather conditions for a clash between two historic franchises with two defenses ready to pounce.

Packers vs Steelers prediction: Under 45 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 44.

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