It hasn’t been easy being a fan of either of these franchises this season and Week 5 delivered another gut punch for them both. Indy looked like they had the win that could kickstart their season wrapped up when 25-9 ahead in the fourth quarter against Baltimore, only to throw it all away after overtime to fall to 1-4. While the Colts aren’t dead and buried yet in terms of the playoff race (they are part of the AFC South after all!), how they respond to such a soul-crushing loss will be intriguing. There were certainly positives to take from the game; Carson Wentz and Jonathan Taylor enjoyed their best outings of the season, while the defense was excellent for 3 quarters. Darius Leonard led the defensive effort before he and the rest of the team fell off a cliff. The Colts just couldn’t bring the heat when it mattered and now rank last in the league in quarterback pressures and 31st in hurries. They might enjoy a bit more luck against a Texans offensive line ranked dead last by Football Outsiders, although that line held up well enough against the Patriots last week.

Like the Colts, Houston snatched defeat from the jaws of victory with a fourth-quarter collapse and both these sides are clearly struggling to finish games, giving up a league-high average of 13.7 points in the final quarter of games the last 3 weeks. Given the expectations for the season though, the Texans can certainly find more reasons to be positive about their loss as Davis Mills put together the best game of his young career, going 21 of 29 for 312 yards and three touchdowns. Houston have found some solid options at receiver, while the defense did well enough against the Pats and now ranks above the Colts in DVOA. The question now is whether this rag-tag bunch of Texans can be consistent and repeat this kind of performance weekly. That won’t be easy but they have enough credit in the bank to back them with a sizable handicap against a down on their luck Colts team who are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 as a home favorite.

Texans +9.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to Texans +9.

Both these quarterbacks played well in Week 5 and it might be easier to trust them to perform than put your faith in these defenses to keep the score down. The Colts have jumped into the top 20 in total offense (DVOA) over the last 2 weeks thanks to the improving form of Wentz and Taylor. Wentz went 25-of-35 for 402 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions and is starting to click in Franck Reich’s offense.

Texans’ QB Mills outperformed the Patriots’ Mac Jones in Week 5 and should take a lot of confidence into this game. With no running game to speak of, Houston has to go to the air and that could cause issues for this banged-up Colts secondary. The Texans are also usually good for a few boneheaded plays which could help to cash the over, which is 6-4 in the teams’ 10 games combined this year.

Over 42.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to over 43.