Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 09/21/25

There is not a lot to like about the Houston Texans heading into Week 3 of the NFL season. Not only are they 0-2, but they are also playing on a short week after losing at home to the Buccaneers on Monday Night Football. CJ Stroud is a franchise quarterback, but the Texans still can’t protect him. That has always been a problem, and the offensive line is even worse in 2025 following a trade of Laremy Tunsil to the Commanders. Nick Chubb is filling in at running back for Joe Mixon, who could miss the entire 2025 campaign. Chubb scored a late touchdown against Tampa Bay, but he is coming off yet another knee injury and looks to be past his prime.

With just 5 full days of rest, Houston has to go on the road to face the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday afternoon. Jacksonville is 1-1 but probably should be 2-0 after squandering a 4th-quarter lead against Cincinnati in Week 2. The Jags lead the entire NFL in rushing so far, averaging 169.5 yards per contest on the ground. If Trevor Lawrence can play mistake-free football — or at least close to mistake-free — this is an AFC South showdown that the home team should win and cover.

Texans vs Jaguars prediction: Jaguars -1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 2.5.

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Houston is quite simply a team in turmoil with an especially large number of question marks on offense. It scored only 9 points against the Rams in its season opener and then 19 against Tampa Bay on Monday Night Football. There is no reason to think that things will get markedly better as soon as Week 3.

The Jaguars may have a better chance to move the football. However, even if they are successful, the clock will likely be on the move. After all, Jacksonville’s scoring drives will likely be run-heavy slogs. That’s what this offense has done through 2 games and there is no reason to mess with success this weekend. It should also be noted that wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. (wrist) is questionable. That could lead to more offensive snaps for #2 overall pick Travis Hunter, but Jacksonville may want to use him more on defense with fellow cornerback Jarrian Jones (back) also questionable.

Texans vs Jaguars prediction: Under 44.5 (-102) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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