Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 01/04/26

We have an intriguing AFC South showdown on our hands on Sunday, as the shorthanded Indianapolis Colts are set to square off against the playoff-bound Houston Texans in a battle of division rivals in Houston. This isn’t the most scintillating game on paper, but it wouldn’t shock me if the Colts put up more of a fight in this game than what the market and betting public are expected. After a few weeks of somewhat competitive football, the Philip Rivers experience appears to be over in Indianapolis, as the wily veteran quarterback is not getting the start this week under center. Instead, it will be rookie quarterback Riley Leonard who gets the ball for the Colts against a Texans defense that is among the most ferocious units in football. However, this could be a game where Indianapolis keeps things within single digits against a team that is undoubtedly going to be looking ahead to the following week.

To my eyes, Leonard was perfectly serviceable against the Jaguars last week, as he went 18-for-29 for 145 yards and was also able to pick up some key first downs with his legs. With that in mind, as long as he and the Colts offense can generate a decent amount of success on early downs, Indianapolis should be able to score enough points to at least make things competitive. It’s also worth mentioning that Houston has struggled in this role as a double-digit favorite in recent weeks, as the Texans knocked off the lowly Raiders by just 2 points a few weeks ago. Even in their depleted state, the Colts are still a better team than Las Vegas, and I’ll bank on Leonard and company to keep this respectable on Sunday.

Colts vs Texans prediction: Colts +10.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to +10.

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