Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction, Odds and MNF Picks for Today, 10/06/25

The majority of the football world probably hates to hear it, but last Sunday the Chiefs looked like the same, championship-calibre program that’s gone to the Super Bowl 5 times in the past 8 seasons. At home against a fellow championship contender, the Chiefs annihilated the Ravens in  their most complete game of their young campaign. The return of Xavier Worthy stretched Baltimore‘s defense, aiding Patrick Mahomes’ ability to distribute the ball and dominate through the air like only he can. The former 2-time MVP completed 25 of 37 passes for 270 yards, 4 touchdowns and no interceptions. Eventually, Baltimore produced more yardage in garbage time, but Kansas City dominated, taking a 30-13 lead into the 4th quarter. It was a sign that the Chiefs, who are healthy and now only awaiting the return of Rashee Rice, are as dangerous as they’ve ever been.

The Jags impressed in Week 4, too. In perhaps their biggest win of the last 2 seasons, Jacksonville journeyed to the Pacific Northwest, a time zone where they’re historically 2-13 straight up, and outmatched the 49ers. Gaining 151 yards on the ground and forcing 4 turnovers, the Jaguars were balanced and effective in their trip, proving that new coach Liam Coen and defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile are transforming the franchise in a positive direction. Through 4 weeks, the Jaguars rank as a top-5 defense and top-10 rushing attack, although their passing game and Trevor Lawrence, who continues to make boneheaded plays in every game, still leaves much to be desired. Lawrence is 31st in pass completion percentage (58.33%) and 26th in yards per pass (5.9). 

Will the real Chiefs please stand up? We believe they just did. Historically, Mahomes and the Chiefs are not very good as favorites over the past 2 seasons, going just 17-17-1 against the spread. But they’re also rarely a small favorite, even on the road, and while Jacksonville has played well, we must consider their opponents. They beat the Panthers, the Bengals without Joe Burrow for 2 quarters and lost, the Texans, who have one of the worst offenses in the NFL, and a banged-up San Francisco roster. The Chiefs in their current form are a different beast.

Chiefs vs Jags prediction: Chiefs -3.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.

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