Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction, Odds and Picks for Sunday, 10/19/25

Historically speaking, laying double digits with the Chiefs in the Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid era has actually been a very poor investment. In fact, the last time Kansas City won and covered as a favorite of 10 points or more was more than 2 years ago, and that isn’t exactly a common occurrence in recent seasons. However, this is actually an instance where I lean toward the Chiefs putting up a big number against a Raiders team that appears to be a mess at the moment. Yes, Las Vegas did pick up a win against the lowly Titans a week ago, but both teams put up the same number of yards and the Raiders only put up 4 yards per play against one of the worst teams in the NFL. Geno Smith has largely been a disappointment and he’s now being tasked with a matchup against a a Chiefs defense that is steadily improving with each passing week and should feast against one of the worst offensive lines in football, while likely generating an interception or two against the Raiders quarterback.

On the other side, Mahomes and the Chiefs offense are humming at the moment, and the good times should keep on rolling against this below average Las Vegas defense. Kansas City just put up nearly 6 yards per play against the Lions, and the insertion of Rashee Rice back into a wide receiver room that is already playing much better since the return of Xavier Worthy signals nothing but good things ahead for a Chiefs offense that is back to looking like how it did in the 2022-23 season. This isn’t my favorite play on the board by any means, but it’s hard to ignore the edges that Kansas City holds in this game.

Raiders vs Chiefs prediction: Chiefs -11.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 12.

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Regardless of which team covers the number in this matchup, the under is my preferred look with regards to the total. While the Chiefs offense has excelled in recent weeks, there is an argument to be made that Kansas City will play at a very deliberate pace in this game in what is a sleepy spot following that massive win over the Lions a week ago. Las Vegas struggles mightily at defending the pass, but the Raiders do have a solid run defense, one that has surprisingly held up against a schedule that’s included the Colts, Chargers, Commanders and Patriots. Conversely, the Raiders offense can’t run the ball and should run up against some major issues when it comes to blocking Chris Jones and company up front. Let’s take the under at Arrowhead Stadium.

Under 45.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 45.