Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots Prediction, Odds and Picks for Sunday, 09/07/25

After a long and eventful offseason, the 2025 NFL campaign is finally here. And while we have plenty of exciting games to look forward to in Week 1, one of my favorite games of the week comes in the AFC between the Las Vegas Raiders and New England Patriots. Las Vegas is a team that I’m pretty high on heading into the season, having undergone a complete overhaul from last season’s squad. The Raiders are undoubtedly getting an upgrade at head coach with Pete Carroll, running back with rookie sensation Ashton Jeanty and at quarterback with Geno Smith replacing Aidan O’Connell in arguably the biggest year-to-year jump at the position across the NFL. Given all of the new talent in the system, I expect a solid showing from Las Vegas in its season opener against a Patriots defense that while solid, does have a decent amount of moving pieces.

New England is a team that many across the football world are high on this season, and I totally understand that notion. I’m a big fan of Drake Maye and think he should take a significant step forward in his second year as a starter. New England should also be a much better coached team over the course of the season with Mike Vrabel taking over for Jerod Mayo at the controls. However, this Patriots offensive line is still in a brutal spot and I have concerns about their ability to halt Maxx Crosby and the Raiders pass rush in this game. This is one that should come down to the final few possessions, so I’ll grab the points with the road ‘dog while this number is sitting at a field goal.

Raiders vs Patriots prediction: Raiders +3 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number to -125.

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While I like the Raiders to cover the short number as an underdog on the road, my favorite play in this game comes on the total. I’m anticipating a higher-scoring affair than what the market is projecting in this game, especially given the fact that I have Las Vegas keeping this one within the number. From a game script perspective, the Raiders are likely going to have to scoring in the mid to upper 20s in order to pull off the upset given how their secondary looks this season. Maye and the Patriots offense should be able to have some success in the play action game, and they should be able to move the ball pretty well against one of the worst pass defenses in football. On the flip side, the Patriots secondary is in real trouble heading into this game, as top cornerback Christian Gonzalez is likely going to miss this matchup, to go along with multiple injuries at the safety position. This is one where as long as both teams can get to 20 points, we should have a winner on our hands.

Over 43.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 44.