Las Vegas Raiders vs Washington Commanders Prediction, Odds and Picks for Tomorrow, 09/21/25

With Jayden Daniels sidelined by a knee injury, Marcus Mariota will be under center for the Washington Commanders when they host the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday afternoon. With the spread having plunged all the way down to less than a field goal due to the Daniels news, my Raiders vs Commanders pick is on the home team to win and cover. All is not lost for Washington with its QB1 on the sideline. Mariota has a ton of starting experience in the NFL. By no means is all of it good, of course, but the veteran and former #2 overall pick has to be considered among the more reliable backup quarterbacks in the league. Most important, though, is that the Commanders are playing at home and facing an entirely unspectacular opponent.

Both teams are 1-1, but Washington’s loss is to a high-powered Green Bay outfit. Las Vegas has not impressed at all; it scraped past New England 20-13 before falling at home to the Chargers via a 20-9 decision. First-round pick Ashton Jeanty’s career is off to an extremely slow start, with only 81 yards on 30 carries through 2 games. Geno Smith has a ridiculous 1-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio, so that quarterback experiment for the Raiders is not going well so far. Obviously you have to proceed with caution given the QB situation, but Washington should be able to prevail by at least a field goal.

Las Vegas Raiders vs Washington Commanders prediction: Commanders -2.5 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Even with the total at a relatively low 43.5 number, my Raiders vs Commanders prediction is for the under cash. Neither offense inspires any confidence. Las Vegas has underwhelmed through 2 weeks (and that’s an understatement), while Washington’s attack simply isn’t the same with Mariota running the show instead of Daniels.

The Commanders will probably feature more of a run-heavy offense with Mariota taking snaps. So even if the Commanders move the ball successfully, the clock will likely be on the move. And if they don’t move it, it’s hard to imagine the Raiders doing enough heavy lifting to take this game over the total. Smith has been a turnover machine and Jeanty has been unable to get going. The rookie out of Boise State is averaging a mere 2.7 yards per carry behind a poor offensive line. Although neither defense has been dominant so far this year, Washington’s depth chart is stacked with veterans and Maxx Crosby can be a difference-maker for Las Vegas.

Las Vegas Raiders vs Washington Commanders prediction: Under 43.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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