Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders Prediction, Odds and MNF Picks for Monday, 09/15/25

The data doesn’t do justice to how well Justin Herbert and the Chargers played last Friday night. Battling their divisional foe and reigning AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs, the Chargers conquered their foe in methodical fashion. Herbert played one of the greatest games of his career, answering the Chiefs at every turn, leading scoring drives in every quarter. Along the way, the LA defense recorded 8 quarterback hits, 2 sacks, 3 tackles for a loss and 4 deflected passes. Jim Harbaugh’s defense was flying all over the field, unrelenting in their pursuit of the ball and permitting just 5 out of 14 conversion on Kansas City’s 3rd downs. It was a comprehensive showing from the Chargers and a startling indication of Harbaugh’s impact on the franchise. Herbert looked different, more confident and aggressive, and it made the Bolts feel like a legitimate Super Bowl contender. We were extremely impressed.

Harbaugh and Herbert now bring their roster to Las Vegas, against a Raiders team that also looked better than expected in Week 1. Of course, Pete Carroll’s new team was facing a Patriots program that had a ton of new parts, including a young quarterback only in his 2nd season. Raiders’ QB Geno Smith again proved why Carroll views him as such a valuable asset, carrying the offense on his shoulders and maintaining a lead throughout the game, even in hostile territory. Eventually the Patriots slowly caught up and the game was close at the end, but Vegas held on in an otherwise uneventful opener. In truth, besides a crisp performance by Geno Smith, it was a sloppy game. The Raiders got off to a nice start, but it wasn’t nearly as impressive as what we saw from the Chargers. With momentum and renewed optimism in the direction of their franchise, we love the Chargers to cover a short line.

Chargers vs Raiders prediction: Chargers -3 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to 3.5.

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The Jim Harbaugh-led Chargers have only experienced success against the Raiders, putting up 34 and 22 points against their division rival last season, both wins. We think the narrative will stay the same — the Chargers are still the better team, but we saw some aspects of the Raiders’ defense that we really liked in Week 1. Firstly, they were aggressive all game, sacking Drake Maye 4 times and permitting just 60 rushing yards. They were also good when it mattered, limiting the Patriots to just 1-3 in the red zone and 4-14 on 3rd-down conversions. Eventually, Maye and his teammates moved the ball and stacked up a respectable amount of total yards (336), although most of it came after the Raiders took a comfortable lead.

Meanwhile, although Geno Smith had success in his opener, he was still sacked 4 times and the Raiders were equally pedestrian on the ground (56 rushing yards). That doesn’t bode well against a Chargers defense that played with maximum aggression last week, holding back Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid’s historic offense in a dominant manner. A stoic Herbert and Smith give their teams the best chance of putting up points, but we see this as a defensive, divisional war between 2 programs that want to remain undefeated.

Chargers vs Raiders pick: Under 46.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 46.

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