Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 10/12/25

It seems like a long time ago that the Chargers were cruising along at 3-0. After back-to-back losses to the Giants and Commanders, Los Angeles is tied atop the AFC West with Denver as the Chargers head to Miami to face the struggling Dolphins. Jim Harbaugh’s team rolled through its division foes in beating the Chiefs, Raiders, and Broncos in the first 3 weeks. The good news with the last 2 losses is they came against NFC teams, so it doesn’t hurt L.A.’s AFC record.

The Dolphins can’t get out of their own way at 1-4, blowing a 17-0 lead in Sunday’s 27-24 defeat at Carolina. Following an 0-3 start and a Monday night victory over the rival Jets, Miami could have rebuilt its season at 2-3, but the meltdown against the Panthers have likely sunk their chances.

The storyline with these two teams will concentrate on the QBs from the 2020 draft. Justin Herbert ranks 8th in passing yards in the NFL, but the Chargers’ signal-caller sits 21st in YPA and 20th in completion percentage. The player picked ahead of Herbert, Tua Tagovailoa, is 8th in completion percentage and 3rd in passing TDs with 10.

The Tua/Herbert comparison is alive and well with the way things are going. Herbert and the Chargers seek their 2nd road victory after winning at Las Vegas in Week 2, but the Lightning Bolts were tripped up by the Giants in Week 4. Last season, the Chargers went 6-3 in the regular season on the road, but finished with a loss at Houston in the playoffs.

In their last head-to-head matchup to kick off the 2023 season, the Dolphins outlasted the Chargers, 36-34 as 3-point road underdogs. Tua threw for 466 yards, but 215 of those went to Tyreek Hill, who is currently sidelined for the rest of the season with a leg injury. Meanwhile, the Chargers are down several running backs, as Najee Harris is out with a torn Achilles and rookie standout Omarion Hampton is sidelined for 4 weeks with an ankle injury.

Chargers vs Dolphins prediction: Miami Dolphins +4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.

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