Miami Dolphins vs Atlanta Falcons Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 10/26/25

The Miami Dolphins are in absolute shambles heading into a Week 8 matchup with the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday afternoon in Atlanta. Miami is 1-6 and is looking like a completely dysfunctional outfit. It’s actually shocking that head coach Mike McDaniel was not fired following a 31-6 loss to the Cleveland Browns last weekend. Although it is true that many of the Dolphins’ losses have been competitive, this is a team that is clearly on the decline — and help isn’t on the way given that receiver Tyreek Hill is out for the year with a knee injury. As a complete fade of Miami rather than instilling confidence in Atlanta, my Dolphins vs Falcons pick is on the home team to win and cover.

There is not a whole lot of good things to say about the Falcons — except for the fact that they are playing at home. Head coach Raheem Morris’ squad has won its last 2 games at Mercedes-Benz Stadium over formidable foes in Washington and Buffalo, whereas it has lost its last 2 road games. There is no reason to think that Miami’s defense has any prayer of containing running back Bijan Robinson. Although I don’t love giving more than a touchdown with the Falcons, under pretty much no circumstances am I willing to put my chips in the center of the Dolphins’ table right now.

Miami Dolphins vs Atlanta Falcons prediction: Falcons -7.5 (-108) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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This is a dreadful matchup for Miami’s defense, which is the main reason why my Dolphins vs Falcons pick is Over 44.5. The Fins are dead last in run defense in the entire NFL, giving up 159.3 such yards per contest on 5.2 yards per carry (fourth worst in the league). Robinson was bottled up at San Francisco last weekend, but both he and quarterback Michael Penix Jr. have fared far better at home than they have on the road.

Atlanta’s defensive numbers are outstanding, but that is largely due to playing against a string of unspectacular quarterbacks (other than Josh Allen, of course). They even were lucky enough to face Marcus Mariota instead of Jayden Daniels when the Commanders paid a visit to Atlanta. The Dolphins at least have some talented players on their roster, at least offensively – including QB Tua Tagovailoa and RB De’Von Achane. Prior to last week’s stinker against a very good Cleveland defense, Miami had scored more than 20 points in 5 consecutive outings.

Miami Dolphins vs Atlanta Falcons prediction: Over 44.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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