Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Prediction, Odds and TNF Picks for Thursday, 09/18/25

There’s a ton of negative press coming out of Miami. Some of that is well-founded and justified, some of it isn’t. The reality is, the Dolphins lost again in Week 2, allowing the Patriots to put 33 points on the board along the way, yet another indictment for Mike McDaniel and his current influence over the Fins’ locker room. The visitors also made fewer mistakes in the 4th quarter, which ended up deciding the contest. 

Offensively, there was much to appreciate about Miami. Tua Tagovailoa completed 26 out of 32 passes (81%) for 315 yards at a 9.8 yards per pass clip. Tyreek Hill finally caught a ball over 30 yards and eclipsed 100 receiving yards, too. Tua had 1 bad interception, but overall the Dolphins offense looked similar to what it once was, minus a productive run game. One area of concern was their offensive line, which struggled blocking on runs and allowed 5 sacks and 5 quarterback hits.

Miami’s defense was also largely horrific for the entire contest. An offense not known for its explosiveness, New England gained 18 first downs and 333 total yards, going 7-12 on 3rd-down conversions and 3-4 in the red zone. The Dolphins’ defensive showings the first two weeks are extremely concerning, to say the least, especially before traveling up to face a juggernaut at Orchard Park.

There is less to say about Buffalo because their Week 2 outcome was predictable. The Bills’ offensive line dominated the Jets all game, enabling 224 rushing yards for an offense that barely needs a run game with Josh Allen under center. Justin Fields eventually got injured, and Tyrod Taylor couldn’t do much better against a Buffalo defense that came ready to dominate, too. We didn’t learn much about the Bills last Sunday, besides the fact that they are still on a different planet than the Jets.

In the last 2 seasons, Buffalo has dominated Miami. 2 games were close, 2 games were not. Oddsmakers think this one will not be close at all, thus a giant spread, but we’re going to stick our necks out for Miami. There is nothing in pro football that makes a team more desperate than the potential of going 0-3. We think they put up some offense and hang around, in what feels like ultimately an inevitable loss.

Dolphins vs Bills prediction: Dolphins +13 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 12.

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If Miami can stay somewhat consistent offensively, this is a team that could become a darling for “overs” all season, and that’s mostly because of their defense. It’s hard to put into words how bad the Dolphins’ defense was in Week 2. When the Patriots needed a 4th-down conversion, they got it. When they were in the red zone, they scored, and it was the best New England’s run game looked like since December 22 of last season. The Dolphins were able to generate pressure on a few plays, sacking Drake Maye 3 times, but part of that was on a 2nd-year quarterback holding onto the ball for far too long. In short, the Dolphins’ defense is heading to Buffalo without any confidence or belief that they can stymie the Bills at all, and we can’t blame them.

In 2weeks, the Bills have already stacked up 900 total yards. Whether through the air or on the ground, Buffalo’s pass-protection has largely been amazing (Allen has only been sacked twice), and their creative run-blocking schemes have immediately freed up James Cook. The crafty running back is averaging 5.2 yards per carry and already has 3 touchdowns.

The biggest question for Thursday’s total is on Miami’s side. In support of points, Tua finally settled in and looked more like himself, generating an 81% completion rate on 9.8 yards per pass. DeVon Achane never had a big run, but he has the same explosiveness and speed that made him so dangerous last season. He had 8 catches for 92 yards. The same can be said for Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, who combined for 11 catches and 177 yards. 

Interestingly, Miami has put up more points every season under Mike McDaniel when they’ve played at Buffalo, not in South Florida. Orchard Park will be in the low-70s and perfect football weather at gametime, so we simply can’t look any other way.

Dolphins vs Bills best bet: Over 49.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 48.5.

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