Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears Prediction, Odds and MNF Picks for Monday, 09/08/25

In one of the more intriguing matchups of Week 1, NFC North rivals will clash in the Windy City and needless to say, both fanbases have sky-high expectations. Kevin O’Connell’s Vikings enter the 2025 season without the quarterback who led them to a 14-3 record. Of course, their defense was a huge part of that, too. They allowed the fewest points in the NFL (19.9 per game) and they were top-2 in stifling opponents on 3rd and 4th down. Led by one of the best defensive coordinators in the NFL, Brian Flores returns with an even more talented unit in 2025, adding veteran players like defensive linemen Javon Hargrave and Jonathan Allen and cornerbacks Jeff Okudah and Isaiah Rodgers. The question remains at quarterback, where newcomer JJ McCarthy will finally suit up for a meaningful game after looking very crisp in 2 preseason outings. O’Connell is famous for rearing QBs and setting them up for success, as we saw last year with Sam Darnold, who suddenly looked like a star. Still, we have reservations that they can replicate 2024’s success. Either way, Minnesota’s offense is as talented as ever, although WR2 Jordan Addison will start the season under a suspension, missing the first 3 games.

The Bears are, once again, one of the most improved teams in the NFL. Their offensive line is officially elite, at least on paper, since they nabbed longtime Kansas City left guard Joe Thuney, arguably the best pass-protector in the NFL, center Drew Dalman (formerly ATL), and right guard Jonah Jackson (formerly DET, LAR), who are both exceptional at their position. They needed it, since their 2024 #1 pick Caleb Williams was the most sacked QB in the NFL last season. They also brought in Grady Jarrett to aid a pass-rush that was mid last year, and new defensive coordinator Dennis Allen, who should have plenty of motivation to prove his worth after getting ousted in New Orleans.

The biggest change for Chicago is their head coach. Offensive guru and the mastermind behind Detroit’s explosive offense the last few seasons, Ben Johnson joins the Bears in hopes of catalyzing Caleb’s performance. The Bears’ 2nd-year QB showed off why he was one of the most touted #1 draft picks ever, making one clutch play after another in numerous big games, despite very shallow protection and a shaky playcaller. We have no doubt that Johnson will bring out the best in the USC legend and the skill players around him, but the question is: how soon? 

Additionally, the Bears’ defense is a work-in-progress, while Minnesota brings a proven, aggressive group that terrorized Williams last year. McCarthy is brand new, too, but O’Connell is not, and he knows how to operationalize a winning program in Minnesota. We’ll go with the road team to prevail.

Vikings vs Bears prediction: Vikings -1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Whether the total goes over the listed number will be up to the Vikings’ offense and the Bears’ defense, 2 groups that we’re more unsure of. Theoretically, Chicago’s defense has a good matchup here, since their pedestrian run resistance (last season they were 27th in yards per carry/game allowed) is battling a Vikings’ ground attack that was lackluster in 2024 (24th in yards per carry, 19th in yards per game). Minnesota thrived last season against the Bears’ defense, although it was mostly through the air. Darnold threw for 543 yards and the Vikings put up 60 points in 2 wins. We suspect Minnesota will lean more on their rushing attack in JJ McCarthy’s first start, especially since their offensive line is healthy and upgraded with an exciting new left guard in Donovan Jackson, the 24th overall pick this year. As McCarthy settles in, we expect a back-and-forth, clumsy battle between these 2 units.

The others are more predictable. Caleb Williams is a generational talent who can make plays happen even when he’s harassed by the NFL’s best defenses; we saw that constantly last season. We have no doubt that Brian Flores will send a litany of complicated blitzes at Williams, and last year the Vikings were one of the best at stopping the run, too (2nd in opponent rush yards per game). Again, both sides will win at certain points of the game, but we’re inclined to favor Minnesota’s resistance, which was one of the premier units in the league a season ago. While Peyton and Eli and the Monday Night Football fanbase will want points, we see this spectacle falling short. Instead, we expect a gritty, low-scoring, classic NFC North war.

Vikings and Bears pick: Under 44.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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