Minnesota Vikings vs Los Angeles Chargers Prediction, Odds and TNF Picks for Today, 10/23/25

The Vikings are blitzing at the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL through 7 weeks (38.9%) while also leaving the middle of the field open at a 63.9% rate, according to Sharpes Football Analysis. This immediately brings my attention to Keenan Allen, who’s had 5+ receptions in 6 of 7 games this season and has seen 26 of his 65 targets in the short center of the field. Herbert will have to get the ball out quickly to beat the blitz, and that’s where Allen should be a safety valve compared to Quentin Johnson and Ladd McConkey, who are running more deep and intermediate routes this season. Last week, we saw DeVonta Smith lead the Eagles with 4 targets on short routes against this Vikings defense.

Regarding the ML addition of the Chargers, I see them as the more desperate team and home teams are 5-2 SU this season on Thursday Night Football. The Vikings’ wins over their last 4 games aren’t too impressive when you consider that they were against the Jake Browning-led Bengals and Miami Dolphins. This is a get-right game for the Chargers and Joe Alt returning at left tackle puts them over the edge.

Regardless of how the Chargers offense approaches this contest, they’ll need to have some success through the air. On that front, it’s hard to ignore the value we’re getting with Quentin Johnston to find the end zone at the current odds. After all, the TCU product is in the midst of a breakout season in 2025, and he’s finally been able to establish a good rapport with Justin Herbert over the first 6 games.

Johnston has hauled in 14 receptions and a pair of touchdowns over the past 3 weeks, which gives us confidence in his ability to haul in a few red-zone targets on TNF, especially since Herbert should be looking to get the ball out quickly against a blitz-happy Vikings defense. Let’s take Johnston to find paydirt for the 6th time this season.

On the Minnesota side of things, the passing game has been a bit up-and-down to this point, which isn’t a surprise given that the Vikings quarterback situation has been in flux this season. This week, Carson Wentz will remain under center for Kevin O’Connell’s offense, and that gives the Vikings a decently high floor in a game that could be deceptively higher scoring.

With that in mind, it’s nice to have Jordan Addison as a security blanket for Wentz and this Minnesota passing offense. In the 3 weeks since Addison returned from a suspension, he has 18 receptions for nearly 300 yards and a touchdown, which bodes well for his target share this week. Let’s roll with the Vikings’ #2 wideout to find the end zone once again on Thursday Night Football.