New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Prediction, Odds and SNF Picks for Today, 10/05/25

The Bills had a little scare against the Saints at home, but eventually, the inevitable happened. Buffalo ran away with a 2-score lead in the 4th quarter, and they still outpaced the Saints in total yards (356 to 298) and yards per play (6.2 to 4.6). Josh Allen had an uncharacteristic interception, but ultimately it was a clean, if not underwhelming, operation by Buffalo. For elite teams, it isn’t always pretty (just ask Philadelphia), but Josh Allen and his teammates know how to answer when they need to. So far, no opponent has been formidable enough to stop them.

The Patriots are off a week where the NFL media is singing their praises. Undoubtedly motivated by the news of defensive coordinator Terrell Williams stepping away to battle cancer, they ensured a dominant win at home in Week 4. Following a kick-off return for a touchdown, New England’s offensive line bullied Carolina’s defense in the run-game and let loose from there, taking advantage of a myriad of special teams mistakes by the visiting team. Suddenly, the Panthers’ offense stuttered, too, succumbing to a predictable pass-first approach that New England sniffed out.

We’re also hearing much praise for Drake Maye after Week 4, which he somewhat deserves, but an adequate game against one of the worst teams in the NFL is not a reason to fall in love with a quarterback (with Bryce Young at QB, the Panthers are 1-17 on the road). Drake Maye has shown growth and signs of a true franchise quarterback, but in Weeks 1-3, the Patriots’ offense was only scoring 16.7 points per game. They have their issues. Not to mention, while they put up 41 points in Week 4, nearly every scoring drive was set up with a sensational punt return; Maye wasn’t slicing and dicing the Panthers’ defense (breaking news: he only had 17 pass attempts).

The Bills have been playing with their food, but this is still a fantastic spot for them at home before they go to Atlanta on Monday Night Football in Week 6. The same cannot be said for the Patriots, who start a 3-game road trip at Orchard Park. It’s a big spread, but the Bills should have several opportunities to pull away.

Patriots vs Bills prediction: Bills -7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 8.

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