New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 09/14/25

We have a fascinating NFL Week 2 matchup in the AFC East on our hands on Sunday, as the New England Patriots will head to Miami to take on the Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium in South Florida. Week 1 was unkind to both teams in this game, as the Dolphins look poised for a disastrous season following their embarrassing loss to the Colts last week, a result that raised a lot of alarm bells around the league for Miami’s outlook going forward. As for New England, the Patriots entered this season with plenty of hype and expectations following a very disappointing 2024 season, but quarterback Drake Maye and company looked to be completely out of sorts in their season-opening loss at home against the Raiders in Week 1. Both teams would like to forget that these games ever happened, but we’re going to keep fading this Miami team and back the Patriots as short underdogs in this one.

The biggest issue I see for either team in this game is the Dolphins defense. Miami has some real issues on the backend, as the Dolphins secondary didn’t put up much resistance against Colts quarterback Daniel Jones, as they surrendered 272 yards through the air and a touchdown on 22-of-29 passing (76% completion percentage). While the New England offense has struggled to this point, Maye and his bevy of young receivers should find a pit of a rhythm in what should be ideal conditions for offense against a Dolphins defense that could be one of the league’s worst units this season. As for Miami, I am expecting a bit of a bounce-back effort from the Dolphins on Sunday, especially since the game is at home and the Patriots defense might’ve been a touch overrated heading into the season. However, if New England ends up getting Christian Gonzalez back in the secondary, that could certainly be a massive boost against Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and the Dolphins passing attack. I can only look toward the ‘dog on Sunday.

Patriots vs Dolphins prediction: Patriots ML (+110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +100.

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On the surface, I could certainly see why the under would be attractive in this matchup. After all, Tagovailoa looks completely lost at the quarterback position and the Dolphins passing game has suffered mightily as a result. However, this should be a slight step down in class in this contest, as the New England pass defense looked suspect at best against Geno Smith and the Raiders. The Dolphins should at least be able to start out decently enough with their scripted drives, especially since Sunday is expected to be a hot and humid day in South Florida and I expect both defenses to struggle a bit with the conditions. New England will probably look to have Maye get the ball out quicker following the poor performance from its offensive line a week ago, which should lead to consistent success against the poor Miami secondary. This is a game that I can see being played in the mid-to-upper 40s, so the over is the only way I can look on Sunday. 

Patriots vs Dolphins pick: Over 43 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 43.5.

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