New England Patriots vs New Orleans Saints Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 10/12/25

The New England Patriots will try to build on a huge Week 5 win over the Buffalo Bills when they visit the New Orleans Saints on Sunday afternoon. New England went into Buffalo and prevailed 23-20 on Sunday Night Football, a statement performance by a team on the rise. The Patriots now face one of the worst teams in football. While it is a potential letdown spot, but I don’t think head coach Mike Vrabel will let that happen. As such, my Patriots vs Saints pick is on the visitors to win and cover.

Drake Maye looks very good under center for New England in Year 2. When you go into Orchard Park and get the best of Josh Allen, you know things are looking up. Maye has completed more than 70 percent of his passes this season with 1,261 yards, 7 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. He has also rushed for 110 yards and 2 scores. Antonio Gibson suffered a torn ACL last weekend, but starting RB Rhamondre Stevenson and backup TreVeyon Henderson are capable of handling backfield duties by themselves. On the other side of the ball, the Pats are #9 in scoring defense at 20.2 ppg allowed and are in the middle of the pack with 11 sacks.

What this really is, of course, is a fade of New Orleans. Let’s not overreact to the fact that the Saints finally won a game in Week 5, beating the Giants 26-14. The home team prevailed only because New York committed a ridiculous 5 turnovers to New Orleans’ none. Head coach Kellen Moore’s club was out-gained by NY (335 to 332) and had only 2 scoring drives of more than 55 yards. QB Spencer Rattler is nothing more than a game manager, which puts a lot of pressure on Alvin Kamara. Unfortunately for the Saints, Kamara is 30 years old and once again dealing with injury issues. He is questionable for Sunday due to an ankle issue. I’m backing the Pats to stay hot.

Patriots vs Saints prediction: New England Patriots -3.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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My other Patriots vs Saints pick is under 46, as neither offense — especially that of New Orleans — inspires a ton of confidence. The Saints are #27 in scoring offense and #24 in total offense heading into Week 6. Rattler has not necessarily been bad, but he isn’t a playmaker under center and averages just 5.6 yards per pass attempt. If he isn’t going to get help from Kamara, the Saints will be in serious trouble. Kendre Miller will be the primary back on Sunday if Kamara can’t go; neither RB has done much of anything for New Orleans so far in 2025.

New England’s offense has been good enough to pick up 3 wins, but it’s hard to see success being sustained if it continues to be so one-dimensional. It is #27 league wide in rushing at 95.2 yards per contest on 3.7 yards per attempt. Here are the Patriots’ leading rushers in their 5 games: Henderson with 27 yards, Stevenson with 54 yards, Maye with 45 yards, Stevenson with 38 yards and Henderson with 24 yards. The Saints are stellar against the pass, ranking #7 in the NFL in that department and #3 in yards per pass attempt allowed (5.6). So this could be a favorable matchup for New Orleans’ defense if New England still can’t run the ball, as the home team should be able to keep Maye in check through the air. All things considered, 46 is too high of a number for these 2 teams.

Patriots vs Saints prediction: Under 46 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 44.

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