New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys Prediction, Odds and Picks for Sunday, 09/14/25

Both the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants dropped their season openers on the road to division rivals. The Cowboys lost to the defending champion Eagles, 24-20, but managed a cover as 8-point road underdogs. Dallas trailed, 21-20 at the half, but the teams combined for 3 points in the 2nd half following a lengthy weather delay. RB Javonte Williams reached the end zone twice in his Dallas debut, while WR CeeDee Lamb hauled in 110 yards despite a few key drops late.

The Giants couldn’t get any offense going in Russell Wilson’s first start with New York. The Commanders shut down Wilson and the G-Men in a 21-6 home victory as 6-point favorites. Wilson finished 17-of-37 for 168 passing yards, marking his 5th game since last season throwing for less than 200 yards.

Dallas has captured 8 consecutive matchups with New York since 2021, including a pair of victories by less than 7 points last season. In all 8 of those losses, the Giants have scored 20 points or less. In a 20-15 defeat at MetLife Stadium last September, New York failed to score a touchdown and kicked 5 field goals. Dallas finished 2-7 at AT&T Stadium last season with the first victory coming against the Giants after an 0-5 start. QB Dak Prescott lost all 3 home starts in 2024 before his season ended in November with a hamstring injury.

The Giants are riding a 5-game road losing streak dating back to last October. New York’s last victory away from MetLife came at Seattle as 7-point underdogs, where they won 29-20 in Week 5 last season. In 6 of the last 8 seasons, the Giants have started 0-2, including the first time under head coach Brian Daboll in 2024. The Cowboys haven’t begun 0-2 since the 2010 season, and I expect Dallas to be able to continue that trend on Sunday by taking care of New York by at least a touchdown.

Giants vs Cowboys prediction: Cowboys -6 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 6.5.

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Both results for New York and Dallas finished under the total in Week 1, although 1 game was in major doubt. Dallas and Philadelphia combined for 41 points in the first half last Thursday on a 47.5 total and the teams needed just 1 touchdown after halftime. However, a weather delay for nearly an hour destroyed the scoring momentum as the Eagles were the only team to post points with a field goal in the 2nd half to win 24-20. The Giants had no shot at an Over at Washington in a 21-6 loss on a 45.5 total. New York was held to a pair of field goals, while the Commanders racked up 432 yards of offense.

The totals in recent matchups between the Giants and Cowboys have been all over the place the last few seasons. The first meeting at MetLife Stadium finished under the total of 45 points in 2024 as Dallas won 20-15. Dak Prescott threw for 221 yards and 2 touchdowns in the victory, but he missed the 2nd matchup due to a season-ending hamstring injury. Dallas held off New York at home, 27-20, in a battle of backup QBs as the Over of 39 points easily cashed.

The Over is 5-3 in the past 8 meetings since 2021, as Dallas has not been held below 20 points in this span. Meanwhile, New York has not scored more than 20 points in any game during this stretch. The Under is 6-3 in New York’s last 9 games since November 2024, but the Cowboys are 3-0 to the Over in Prescott’s 3 home starts last season. I have to believe that the Giants’ offense will play better this week and Dallas should be able to get what they want against this New York defense.

Giants vs Cowboys pick: Over 44.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 45.

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