New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins Prediction, Odds and Picks for Monday, 09/29/25

Despite a loss on Thursday Night Football, the Dolphins impressed in Week 3. Throughout the game, they showed grit and toughness, particularly on defense. The once hyper-prolific air attack of the Dolphins had its moments, although they still profile as a poor passing offense through 3 weeks (Tua is ranked 23rd with just 575 passing yards). Coming off 11 days of preparation and rest, Tagovailoa and the Fins face the Jets in Week 4, a defense that’s allowing 7.6 yards per pass (24th) and permitted at least 30 points the last 2 times they visited Hard Rock Stadium. If Tagovailoa doesn’t turn up the volume here, he never will, as the Jets’ resistance has proven it will bend and break, especially when their offense fails to stay on the field. 

The Jets’ recipe for success needs to look like their Week 1 performance against Pittsburgh, where they ruled time of possession in a close loss. Since then, in 2 games the Jets are losing the time of possession battle, 50-70, which has resulted in 2 rather predictable losses. Week 4 presents another challenge, since Miami runs for a formidable 5.2 yards per carry (4th), although they haven’t taken advantage of it enough (Miami ranks 31st in run-play percentage). 

But there are reasons to believe the Dolphins can control this game, and that starts with their defense. Despite a loss, the Dolphins held Josh Allen to just 213 passing yards. They limited the Bills’ offense to only 6.3 yards per play. Neither mark is particularly impressive on its own, but at Orchard Park, where the Bills are a real juggernaut, the Dolphins didn’t look like a lesser foe for most of the contest.

Meanwhile, the Jets’ offense inspires no confidence. Analysts were confident that Tyrod Taylor could offer better quarterback play than Justin Fields last Sunday, but it never came to be. Taylor left with a 48.4 QBR. He was sacked 4 times and threw an interception, gaining just 5.5 yards per pass. The offense gained just 267 total yards. Even if Justin Fields clears concussion protocol and plays on MNF, he looked awful in his Week 2 start at home against Buffalo. This is a great spot for Miami to finally get a W.

Jets vs Dolphins prediction: Dolphins -3 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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