Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants Prediction, Odds and TNF Picks for Today, 10/09/25

The expectation going into the season was that Skattebo and Tracy would be complementary pieces to one another in the run game for New York. It started out that way through Week 1 and Week 2 before Tracy went down with an injury early in Week 3 and Skattebo was given an audition as the every-down back. For a Giants team completely bereft of talent in their skill position group, it would behoove them to get Tracy back on the field on TNF.

The Eagles run man and zone coverage splits at an even rate when compared to the rest of the league, but still in zone 73% of the time. For the Giants offense, this is going to be a dink and dunk fest from Jaxson Dart with occasional shots downfield if they see man coverage on Robinson. When you see what their skill positions are down to, you have to assume Tracy’s floor is his Week 2 42% of snaps, and before getting injured early in Week 3, he had 6 targets for 5 receptions and 41 yards, which equates to 8.2 yards per reception against Zone coverage. This was 3rd behind only Malik Nabers and WanDale Robinson.

On the AJ Brown side of this Eagles vs Giants Same Game Parlay, I’m expecting him to be heavily involved in the passing game. His baseline is 64.5, which is too high for my liking given the game’s total and his receptions line is only 4.5. In short, Brown excels against man coverage and the Giants rank 3rd overall in man coverage rates, playing it 40% of the time. New York feels they can win at the line of scrimmage and get pressure with their front 4 to disrupt shots downfield, but that can only hold for so long. Brown, Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley had a players-only meeting to discuss Brown’s frustration and lack of targets, so expect him to get a little more attention than usual this week.

Davante Adams burned us last Thursday, yet we will back the next best DeVonta — DeVonta Smith. Smith was the lone bright spot in the Eagles’ first loss of the season. He reeled in 8 of 10 targets for 114 yards. With all the noise hovering over AJ Brown and his unhappiness, Smith put together his best game of the season against a stout secondary in the Broncos. So, we’ll back him against an underwhelming Giants defense that ranks in the middle of the pack in pressure rate and sacks. If Hurts can get time in the pocket to throw, Smith should be a prime target to catch a long ball.

I can’t stomach backing the price of Saquon Barkley to score a TD at -160 odds on FanDuel and DraftKings, nor the -130 odds on Jalen Hurts to score. Barkley comes into Thursday dinged up versus a talented Giants defensive front. Not to mention the run game has looked putrid to start the year, with Landon Dickerson NOW questionable. That said, I believe it’s worth taking a flyer on newcomer A.J. Dillon scoring his first TD as an Eagle. If the Eagles can take care of business early, Dillon will be in the market for extensive work towards the end of the game and proved during his time in Green Bay in 2021 and 2022 that he knows how to find the end zone.