Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals Prediction, Odds and TNF Picks for Thursday, 10/16/25

At this point, no one should be surprised that Mike Tomlin is likely to complete his 19th consecutive non-losing season as the Steelers’ head coach. Through 5 weeks, Pittsburgh is 4-1 and at the top of the AFC North. It hasn’t always been pretty, which is also very Steelers-like, but the addition of Aaron Rodgers and a defense that finds a way to wreak havoc every week is usually enough to put the steel-team-town on top.

The market is now starting to respond, posting the Steelers as assertive 5.5-point favorites on the road and on a short week, in a battle that’s against a division opponent. In this case, it’s plain to see why their opponent is getting no love. 

After losing Joe Burrow, the Bengals have now lost 4 straight games. In a seemingly desperate move, Cincinnati‘s front office decided to sign 40-year-old Joe Flacco last week. At Green Bay, the results were what one might expect. Flacco is confident in his arm and the Bengals’ offense was able to score more points than projected (their team total was 14.5), but in the end, it was a relatively easy 27-18 victory for the home team Packers.

With a defense that still ranks as one of the worst in the NFL (30th in opponent points, 31st in opponent yards per game), Zac Taylor’s roster must pull itself together and hope that they can get back in the win column fast. Needless to say, oddsmakers and bettors aren’t very confident that they can do that. 

We would like to challenge that notion. Sure, the Steelers have had things go their way for the most part, but they’ve also played a friendlier schedule than most. They easily could have lost to the Jets on opening day, Seattle completely humbled them at home, New England turned the ball over 5 times and still almost beat them, and their last 2 wins were against backup, mistake-prone quarterbacks in a tough spot. In addition, Pittsburgh has real issues generating any production on the ground, ranked 30th in yards per rush (3.4), and they still permit far too many yards (355.6 per game, 26th). 

At home, the Bengals should be hyper-motivated to save their season, and we see this as a great spot for the Steelers to regress.

Steelers vs Bengals prediction: Bengals +5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.5.

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