Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 09/21/25

Both the Steelers and Patriots enter this matchup at Gillette Stadium with 1-1 records. Pittsburgh couldn’t capitalize off its last-minute victory over the Jets in Week 1 as the Steelers were tripped up by the Seahawks at home, 31-17, as 4-point favorites. Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers tossed 4 TD passes in the season opener at New York, but the future Hall of Famer was intercepted twice against Seattle and completed 54.5% of his passes. The Patriots outlasted the Dolphins, 33-27, as 2.5-point road underdogs to give Mike Vrabel his first victory as head coach. New England blew an early 12-0 lead as Miami took a 27-23 advantage in the 4th on a punt return for a score. Antonio Gibson took the ensuing kickoff back for a touchdown to put the Pats back in front and they eventually kicked a field goal to put the game away for their first win over the Dolphins since 2022.

Patriots QB Drake Maye is coming off an efficient 82.6% completion rate against the Dolphins, marking the 7th time in his short career he has completed at least 65% of his passing attempts. Since the start of last season, the Patriots are 2-7 at Gillette Stadium, which includes the opening week defeat to the Raiders. New England has won 2 of its last 11 home contests dating back to Week 9 of the 2023 campaign. The Steelers have lost 6 of their last 7 games since last December, while covering only once in this span. Mike Tomlin’s club is 3-5 against the spread in their past 8 contests in the favorite role. The Patriots held off the Steelers, 21-18, as 5.5-point road underdogs in their last matchup in 2023. That game can be thrown out since the starting QBs were Bailey Zappe and Mitchell Trubisky. Both teams have negative numbers entering this game as far as recent trends go. Looking past that, the Steelers’ defense should be able to get back on track after getting torched in the first 2 games and that should make the difference.

Steelers vs Patriots prediction: Steelers -1.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 2.5.

If you’re looking for a new sportsbook, check out Bet365, the world’s #1 sportsbook. They have an amazing sign-up offer where you can INSTANTLY receive $200 in bonus bets from a $5 wager, regardless of whether that bet wins or loses! There’s no catch, it’s really that simple. Join Bet365 right now ⏰ in time to fade or follow our experts’ Steelers vs Patriots predictions.