Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 09/07/25

The 2 teams likely fighting it out for the NFC South title in 2025 begin the season at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have won the division championship in 4 straight seasons as they look to continue that domination against the Atlanta Falcons. The Bucs are playing with double-revenge on their minds after losing twice to the Falcons in 2024. However, the one player who slayed Tampa Bay in each victory won’t be suiting up as veteran QB Kirk Cousins has been replaced by last season’s 7th overall draft pick, Michael Penix, Jr. Cousins threw 4 touchdown passes in each of the 2 victories over Tampa Bay, but Penix will be given the opportunity to lead Atlanta’s offense this season. Penix started the final 3 games of last season, beating the Giants at home before losing consecutive overtime contests to the Commanders and Panthers. In his 3 starts, the University of Washington standout was intercepted once in each game, while throwing for a career-high 312 yards in the Week 18 home defeat to Carolina.

Tampa Bay QB Baker Mayfield has eclipsed the 4,000-yard passing mark twice in his career, coming in both seasons with the Buccaneers. Following a 4,044-yard performance in 2023, Mayfield topped that number by tossing 4,500 yards and 41 touchdowns to lead Tampa Bay to 10 victories in 2024. The Bucs were profitable away from Raymond James Stadium last season, putting together a 5-3 straight-up and against the spread mark. Tampa Bay won 3 of 4 games as a road favorite with the lone loss coming at Dallas in Week 16.

The Falcons compiled a 3-6 ATS mark at home, including a defeat in their only opportunity as an underdog against the Chiefs in a Week 3 Sunday Night Football setback, 22-17. Penix looks to be the future of this Falcons’ franchise, facing the Bucs for the first time. After Cousins had his way with Tampa Bay twice last season, the Bucs should be thrilled to see another face under center for Atlanta.

Bucs vs Falcons best bet: Buccaneers -2 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 3.

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The Falcons captured both matchups with the Bucs last season in high-scoring affairs. Atlanta stunned Tampa Bay in a 36-30 home triumph as 2.5-point favorites in overtime, led by QB Kirk Cousins torching the Bucs for 509 passing yards and 4 touchdowns. In the 2nd meeting at Raymond James Stadium, the Falcons took care of the Bucs again, 31-26, as 1.5-point favorites. Cousins threw 4 more touchdowns, while Tampa Bay committed 3 turnovers in the defeat. Both those games easily cashed the Over as the Thursday night shootout closed at a measly 43 points. The 2nd game was adjusted up to 48 points, as a 27-point 2nd quarter was the driving force to help the Over once again.

Sunday’s total falls in between at 46.5 points in the first outing for Michael Penix, Jr. as the permanent starter for Atlanta. In the final 3 games of last season, after Penix took over for Cousins, the Falcons scored 34, 24, and 38 points. The last 2 games against Washington and Carolina hit the Over, but that also had to do with the Falcons’ defense allowing 30 points to the Commanders and 44 to the Panthers. The Buccaneers were a high-scoring team on the road last season, resulting in the Over cashing in 6 of 8 games away from Raymond James Stadium. In each of the final 7 away contests, Tampa Bay scored at least 24 points, while all 3 games against NFC South opponents went Over.

However, the Falcons were 6-3 to the Under at home, which included 4 games of scoring 17 points or less. There was plenty of inconsistency with the Atlanta offense last season, as the Falcons had the quarterback controversy hanging over their head with the change to Penix in December. Following the 2 shootouts in 2024, this one will likely revert in the opener and be a lower-scoring affair between these NFC South rivals.

Buccaneers vs Falcons prediction: Under 46.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 45.5.

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As we head into another NFL season, fans will wish the Falcons utilized Bijan Robinson more than they do. I just don’t see them getting their wish and Tyler Allgeier is that reason. Bijan is undeniably great and a top talent at his position, but Allgeier helps take the load off of the young star and is a vital piece to that offense. Allgeier had 6+ carries in 13 of 17 games last year. He was 2-0 against this number when facing Tampa in 2024, games of 12 and 6 handoffs. This game has a close spread, so I think running should be a part of the game plan throughout all 4 quarters.