Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Detroit Lions Prediction, Odds and MNF Picks for Today, 10/20/25

The Tampa Bay Bucs are arguably the best team in the NFL through 5 weeks. Baker Mayfield and an extremely deep wide-receiver corps has been their x-factor, a passing game that ranks in the top 10 and is the major catalyst behind the Bucs averaging 27.5 points per game (sixth). Mayfield has been damn near perfect. He is fourth overall with 1,539 yards and tied for third with 12 passing touchdowns. Entering Week 7 he has only thrown 1 interception. Lead running back Bucky Irving is doubtful for Monday night’s game and their ground attack isn’t as prolific (20th in rush yards per game), but they make up for it in their run-defense, a group that permits just 3.7 yards per carry and 88.5 rush yards per game (5th). Cohesive and with veterans in the most needed positions, Tampa Bay is an early NFC contender for a Super Bowl run — and there’s nothing fluky about it.

But this profiles as a very tough spot. The spread on this game keeps moving in the home team’s direction and we agree with it. Detroit was humbled last week at Arrowhead, which may be the case for most teams for the rest of the season, but the Lions are a true juggernaut at home. Since the 2023 season, head coach Dan Campbell’s outfit has averaged a ridiculous 34 points per game in front of their fans. This season it has already dropped 52 and 34 at Ford Field.

The Bucs are a solid run defense, but they are not as adept against the pass. They rank 26th in opponent yards per pass (7.6) and allow 231.2 pass yards per game (21st). They have only provided solid resistance against teams that are struggling through the air (Philadelphia, Houston, NYJ). The Lions have some issues on defense, again dealing with injuries, but they are one of the most potent (31.2 points per game) and explosive (second in points per play) offenses in the NFL, and they are at their best at home. Combine that with the fact that Detroit is coming off a loss and Tampa Bay is entering this contest with maximum, perhaps inflated confidence, and this is a recipe we love for the home team.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Detroit Lions prediction: Lions -5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -6.

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