Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Houston Texans Prediction, Odds and MNF Picks for Monday, 09/15/25

Both Tampa and Houston impressed in Week 1, albeit for different reasons. The Texans didn’t get a win but that doesn’t mean it was all bad news. Their defense looked in heavyweight form, limiting the Rams to just 74 rushing yards and they were in Matthew Stafford’s face for 4 quarters. Stafford and an elite group of receivers eventually figured it out enough to put up 2 touchdowns, but the Rams couldn’t eke out a score in the 1st or 4th quarters. Houston’s offense is a different story.

Surprisingly, they ran for 114 yards, but CJ Stroud faced much of the same pressure that stunted his 2024 progress. Sacked 3 times and just 2-9 in 3rd downs, Stroud struggled to accelerate his offense’s production when the team needed it most. To be fair, they were up against an underrated Rams defense, one that plainly exhibited its scary potential in Week 1. But Stroud wasn’t happy, telling the media that it was a “wake-up call.” The Texans’ chances of making any noise this season feel decreased already, with no evidence suggesting things will change along their offensive line. 

However, Monday night’s contest may offer a better opportunity. Tampa’s offense is capable of explosive plays, but they didn’t quite look like themselves in Week 1. Perhaps the loss of Liam Coen and/or the absence of Tristan Wirfs (currently recovering from a knee surgery), by far the most important piece of their offensive line, matter more than we thought. Baker still managed to overcome a feisty Atlanta defense and win on Sunday, but they were considerably outgained (258-360). Speaking of which, Michael Penix Jr. threw all over the Bucs defense last Sunday with 298 yards on 7 yards per pass. Tampa’s defensive line, a group that struggled last season, mustered just 1 sack and 3 QB hits. They were stingy against the run, but the Bucs looked below average against the pass. At home and with Stroud rallying the troops, we like the Texans to come out on fire, from the 1st quarter, and that should make all the difference.

Bucs vs Texans prediction: Texans -3 (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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We have a feeling that Texans games will look very similar all season. Immediately, against a very good defense, we saw the setbacks of Houston’s offensive line, a group that couldn’t protect CJ Stroud from having to run from danger all game against the Rams. According to the New York Times, Stroud faced pressure on 41% of plays. He was also sacked 3 times and hit another 7. Without Laremy Tunsil to protect his blind side, Stroud is in the most dangerous pocket of his young career. The Texans ran the ball better than we thought they would last Sunday (114 yards), but they will face a Tampa Bay defense that held a potent Falcons’ rushing attack to just 69 yards in their opener. For years, the Bucs have been a known commodity in run defense (looking at you, Vita Vea), and this season looks no different.

Defensively, Houston was very impressive in Week 1, despite the loss. They held the Rams to just 2.9 yards per carry, 72 in total, and sacked Matthew Stafford 3 times. Of course, like Tampa, the Rams have exceptional pass catchers and Stafford was able to produce at a good enough level to score 14 points. He also converted 7-13 3rd downs. Overall, Houston’s defense protected the team’s margin throughout their first contest, a responsibility that doesn’t seem too big for them at this juncture. After opening at 46.5, this opening total fell quickly. Going to Houston will be a tough test for any offense this season, while the Texans’ offense has too many issues to trust in a higher total.

Buccaneers vs Texans pick: Under 42.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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