Washington Commanders vs Atlanta Falcons Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 09/28/25

The Atlanta Falcons will be looking to bounce back from a disastrous 30-0 loss to Carolina Panthers when they host the Washington Commanders in Week 4 of the NFL season on Sunday. As the score suggests, the Falcons were entirely hopeless on offense last weekend. Michael Penix Jr. had the worst game of his young career, completing just half of his 36 pass attempts for 172 yards with no touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Receivers coach Ike Hilliard was fired following that performance. I’m not exactly sure what purpose that serves — other than that something had to be done. Whatever the case, Atlanta does not inspire any confidence at the moment. As such, my Commanders vs Falcons pick is the visitors on the money line.

It is concerning, of course, that Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin are out. But that’s what you can get the Commanders in plus money — they were favored before the statuses of Daniels and McLaurin were confirmed on Friday. Marcus Mariota has proven to be a capable backup quarterback, so Washington has value as an underdog. Mariota filled in for Daniels last Sunday and led his team to a 41-24 victory over Las Vegas, completing 15 of 21 passes for 207 yards with 1 TD and no INTS while keeping it himself 6 times for 40 yards and a score. Give me the Commanders to pile on the Falcons’ woes.

Washington Commanders vs Atlanta Falcons prediction: Commanders ML (+114) available at time of publishing. Playable to +100.

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Given Atlanta’s offensive futility last week and Washington’s injury issues on that side of the ball, there is no choice but to expect a relatively low-scoring affair on Sunday. My Commanders vs Falcons pick is Under 43.5. Penix is not playing well, but he also hasn’t been getting much help. Offensive tackle Kaleb McGary was lost for the season before it even began and wide receiver Darnell Mooney missed the first game — and hasn’t looked like himself upon returning.

Fortunately for Atlanta, its defense is playing great. It came up with 4 turnovers and 6 sacks during a 22-6 Week 2 victory at Minnesota. Even though the Falcons lost 30-0 last week, they actually held the Panthers to 224 yards of total offense on 4.1 yards per play. As for the Commanders, 2 of their top 3 receivers are sidelined (Noah Brown is also out along with McLaurin). Running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt is questionable and fellow RB Austin Ekeler is already out for the year.

Washington Commanders vs Atlanta Falcons prediction: Under 43.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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