Washington Commanders vs Green Bay Packers Prediction, Odds and TNF Picks for Thursday, 09/11/25

Thursday Night Football features two 1-0 teams who left last weekend feeling great about their prospects in 2025. Naturally, at home and off a tremendous performance against the Lions, Green Bay is a small favorite on a short week. However, the Packers will need to duplicate the same energy that they brought on Sunday if they hope to see the same results and cover the spread.

Jayden Daniels and the Commanders certainly won’t make it easy. Against a ferocious Giants front-seven, Daniels navigated turbulent waters and made all the right plays when he needed to, throwing 19/30 for 233 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions. He looked cool, calm and made it look easy. In many ways, he’s already the Steph Curry of football; aka, the kid is special, in an almost surreal way, and makes everyone around him better. Even more positive for Washington, his team ran for 220 total yards, split between 5 different ball carriers. Seventh-round draft pick Jacory Crosby-Merritt led the backfield with 82 yards, but Daniels was right behind him with 68 himself. The defense also made key plays throughout the game, limiting the Giants to just 231 total yards, and they sacked Russell Wilson twice. It was an energetic showing from Washington, a program that made it all the way to the NFC title game last season but had skeptics wondering if they could show up the same way in 2025. New York was one of the most bet-on sides in Week 1, to no avail.

Thursday’s home team may be the most talked-about team in the NFL after Week 1. Jordan Love was exceedingly efficient, 16/22 for 188 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, and the Packers’ resistance held their rival to just 246 total yards and 13 points. It was a startling, almost eerie demonstration by their defense, a group that flew around the ball and pummeled the Lions’ players all game. Jared Goff was sacked 4 times (including one by newcomer Micah Parsons) and hit another 9 times, struggling to get anything going for all 4 quarters. And don’t be fooled by the fact that Green Bay only gained 266 yards; it was 24-6 at the start of the 4th quarter, so they let their foot off the gas earlier than usual.

What Jordan Love, Micah Parsons and the Packers did on Sunday looked exceptional, but Jayden Daniels is not a guy we like to bet against. Even on the road on a short week, we love the 2nd-year thrower, who’s playing as well as any QB in the league right now, to show up big in his first-ever contest at Lambeau Field. This will be a back and forth, close battle.

Commanders vs Packers prediction: Commanders +3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Unsurprisingly, the total between Washington and Green Bay is high, with oddsmakers expecting a showcase from 2 of the most dynamic and entertaining young quarterbacks in the NFL. We have our reservations. Firstly, although Jayden Daniels played amazing football in Week 1, the Commanders are unlikely to see the same success on the ground. A team notorious for their potent running attack, Detroit only gained 46 rushing yards last week against a rock-solid Packers front-seven. That means they averaged an astonishing 2.1 yards per carry. Some of that may be because of offseason chances on Detroit’s roster, but they were a top-5 ground attack in every major category last season. Last Sunday, they had no chance. If Green Bay limits Washington like we expect, that means the onus will be on Daniels. We know he’s capable of holding the offense on his shoulders because he’s done so plenty of times before, but the Packers’ new, dynamic pass rush won’t make life easy there, either.

On the other side, we were pleasantly surprised by Washington’s defensive product in Week 1, too. New additions like Von Miller, Dietrich Wise and Javon Kinlaw were very active at the point-of-attack, limiting the Giants’ running backs to just 30 yards on the ground. The Commanders’ front-seven harassed Wilson all game, and a talented young secondary kept the Giants’ best offensive player, Malik Nabers, to just 74 yards. The Packers’ offense is obviously capable of putting up points, but we trust that this newly formed Commanders’ group, which is full of gritty veterans, can make the plays that matter to limit what Jordan Love and his counterparts accomplish.

Lastly, both defenses know they have a huge challenge on their hands in Week 2, an intangible factor that often leads to better-than-projected results from the unit where less is expected. This will feel like an early NFC playoff game, too.

Commanders vs Packers prediction: Under 48 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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