Washington Commanders

Washington Commanders vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction, Odds and MNF Picks for Monday, 10/27/25

Arrowhead StadiumABC
Commanders
3-4
Commanders
Mon Oct 27
Chiefs
4-3
Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs
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Commanders vs Chiefs Guest Expert Predictions

Point Spread Pick
KC Chiefs -10.0(-110)

The Washington Commanders, who have been suffering through a few key injuries, are really going through a tough time right now. Heading into Week 7 they were already without their top-two wideouts, Deebo Samuel and Terry McClaurin, both of whom may sit again in Week 8. They were already missing Noah Brown, who’s currently on the injured reserve. Against the Cowboys things turned for the worst when star quarterback Jayden Daniels went down with a hamstring injury. Considering that Daniels already missed time this season and the franchise can’t afford to lose the former LSU quarterback long-term, trusted medical professionals project Daniels will sit at least 2-3 weeks. This couldn’t have come at a worse time for the Commanders, who will likely start Marcus Mariota in Week 8, since they have a road-spot against one of (if not the) best teams in the NFL on Monday night. The Chiefs started off 2025 in rocky fashion but they are quickly becoming the same program that’s made three straight Super Bowls. In some ways, they look even better than those teams.

Week after week, important Chiefs’ players have returned from injury or suspension, and each week it’s meant better results from Mahomes and his teammates. In Week 7 it was Rashee Rice who returned, further aiding a Kansas City roster that’s already reaching its apex less than halfway through the season. In one of the most disparate box scores you’ll ever see, the Chiefs out-gained the Raiders 434-95 in total yards and, get ready for it, 30-3 in first downs. Of course the Raiders are a complete dumpster-fire and it was hardly a surprise to see a dominant Chiefs’ win, but it was akin to a Super Bowl outfit against a college team. We just don’t see it very often in the modern NFL.

The Commanders are far better than the Raiders overall, but in their current predicament we’re not sure if it’s enough to cover this line. In two starts Mariota has been a decent back-up for Daniels (363 passing yards, three touchdowns, one interception). But last week against a motivated Dallas-defense, he instantly proved why he’s a huge step down from #5, throwing a hellacious interception and unable to move the offense in Daniels’ absence. Aside from left tackle Josh Simmons, who’s dealing with something mysterious that’s keeping him off the field (Andy Reid has yet to expand on what’s happening), the Chiefs are completely healthy, at home, and look as potent and buttoned up as they ever have. The choice is clear.

Commanders vs Chiefs prediction: Chiefs -10 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 10.5.

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Chris R. Farley
Game Totals Pick
Under 48.5(-110)

Although Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense will always get more flowers, what their defense has done the last two weeks may be the most impressive. At home against the Lions in Week 6, an offense that’s typically a juggernaut against any opponent, Kansas City held Jared Goff and company to just 297 total yards and 18 first downs. Last week the Raiders never had a chance, earning an unbelievably low 3.2 yards per play and just 3 total first downs for the entirety of the contest. Las Vegas also went 0-7 on third down and didn’t reach the red-zone once.  At home, the Kansas City defense is clearly at its best. Even if we take away a scoreless showing from the Raiders, Kansas City is holding opponents to just 21 points per game at Arrowhead. 

Of course, teams that scored more against KC were led by significantly better offenses. Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts both found some success in Weeks 1 and 2, even though the Eagles only gained 216 yards. The Commanders, who might be without their three most important offensive starters, are in a very vulnerable position, one that simply cannot mimic what LAC or Philadelphia brought to the table.

On the other side, the Commanders have a respectable defense that ranks 18th overall on Pro Football Focus and permits 24.3 points per game (21st). In general they are good, not great, but head coach Dan Quinn was brought to Washington because of his defensive acumen and leadership. Against a Kansas City offense that’s humming, Quinn knows that their only chance to win is an A+ performance on the defensive side of the ball. Since we don’t anticipate much from Washington on offense, there’s only one way we can look.

Commanders vs Chiefs pick: Under 48.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 47.5.

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Chris R. Farley
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Chris Farley

Chris is a writer for Pickswise who’s been handicapping the NFL since 2011. He began his public betting career as a betting writer, and has since become a contributing analyst for various betting sites and shows. He was a 5th place winner ($114k) in the 2021 NFL Circa Millions contest, and he owns his own sports betting podcast, Laying the Points. Chris approaches handicapping using psychosocial principles and nuanced market analysis. The NFL and NBA are his favorite and most profitable sports.
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