Washington Commanders vs Los Angeles Chargers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Sunday, 10/05/25

The Los Angeles Chargers will be looking to bounce back from a surprising loss to the New York Giants when they entertain the Washington Commanders in Week 5 of the NFL season on Sunday afternoon, and my Commanders vs Chargers pick is on the home team to win and cover. It has otherwise been a solid start to the 2025 campaign for Los Angeles, which had been 3-0 prior to last weekend’s setback. Defense has been a big reason for the Chargers’ success; they are third in total defense, fifth in passing defense and fourth in scoring defense. Head coach Jim Harbaugh’s team really had no business losing to the Giants, either. New York averaged an anemic 3.6 yards per play and still managed to win even though L.A. averaged 6.0 yards per play. The Bolts were undone by 2 turnovers (the Giants committed none) and a ridiculous 14 penalties for 107 yards.

There is no reason to think that a Harbaugh-coached club will make those errors 2 weeks in a row. Assuming the Charger don’t, they should be able to take care of the Commanders. Jayden Daniels is back after missing 2 games due to a knee injury; that’s good news for the visitors, obviously, but Daniels has not played since September 11. It remains to be seen if he is rusty and/or less than 100 percent; even if he is good to go, the LSU product has to face one of the best defenses in football. Wide receivers Terry McLaurin and Noah Brown are out, while Deebo Samuel is questionable. All in all, this sets up very well for the home side.

Washington Commanders vs Los Angeles Chargers prediction: Chargers -2.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Daniels my be back on the field, but I don’t have much confidence in him to go crazy when he is coming off a 2-week injury absence, has to go up against the Chargers’ defense and is missing at least 2 of his primary pass-catchers and maybe 3. Running back Austin Ekeler is already out for the season with a torn Achilles’ so this is a depleted offense even with Daniels once again under center. That is a big reason why my Commanders vs Chargers pick is Under 47.5.

Los Angeles hasn’t exactly set the world on fire so far, either. Justin Herbert and company have not yet produced more than 27 points in any contest and in their last 3 outings they have scored between 18 and 23 points. That is decent but unspectacular stuff. Moreover, the offensive line is banged up with left tackle Joe Alt unlikely to play on Sunday and Mekhi Becton questionable. Running back Najee Harris is on injured reserve, so the backfield belongs entirely to Omarion Hampton. All things considered, a total of 47.5 is a little bit too big for this matchup.

Washington Commanders vs Los Angeles Chargers prediction: Under 47.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to 47.

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