Washington Commanders vs New England Patriots Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 08/08/25

Week 1 of the 2025 NFL Preseason includes a Friday night contest between the Washington Commanders and host New England Patriots. It is always difficult to handicap preseason action, but we will deal with what we know — and that is Patriots fans will get to see most of the starters for at least a little bit in this one. That’s why New England is favored by more than 6 points, which is a spread I want to avoid. It’s hard to justify giving that many points in any preseason situation, but at the same time, I’m not overly inclined to back the Commanders since they will be facing the Patriots’ starters to some extent. As such, I’m looking toward the game total. My Commanders vs Patriots pick is Under 34.5.

In 3 preseason outings last year, only once did a Washington total exceed 30 points — and one of its results was a 13-6 loss at Miami. New England did not have a single game go over 30 points. The 3rd and final 2024 preseason matchup was between these same 2 teams, with the Commanders winning 20-10 at home. That’s 30 total points for those counting. 7 of the Patriots’ last 8 preseason games have stayed under this 34.5 number. It should also be noted that the Pats’ offense does not project to be very good even when the starters are on the field, so expect a relatively low-scoring affair on Friday.

Commanders vs Patriots prediction: Under 34.5 (-108) available at time of publishing. Playable to Under 34.

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